TraderLion 2025 Trading Conference | Day 5: Learn From The Top Traders In The World

Here's a comprehensive summary of the provided YouTube video transcript:

Key Concepts

• 2025 Trader Line Trading Conference: The event's final weekend, featuring a lineup of market wizards, top traders, and educators.
• Oliver Kell's Swing Trading System: Focuses on the "cycle of price action" using 10 and 20 period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) for trend identification and entry/exit points.
• Cycle of Price Action: A framework involving reversal extensions, snapbacks to moving averages, pullbacks, tightening volatility, wedge pops (buy points), EMA crossbacks, base and breaks (consolidations), and exhaustion extensions.
• Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Emphasizes aligning weekly and daily charts for better trading decisions.
• Trader Handbook: A book by the conference organizers covering trading system development, risk management, and post-analysis, featuring annotated charts of past winners.
• Ninja Trader Live: Sponsor of the conference, offering daily futures trading, real-time market coverage, and strategies.
• VIP Pass: A free pass providing access to recordings of current and past conference presentations, slides, speaker notes, and additional resources.
• Roy and Wes Maddox's "What They Don't Teach You in Business School": Focuses on practical advice, trend following, identifying dominant market themes, risk management, and the importance of technical analysis for timing.
• Equity Research Industry Insights (Wes Maddox): Discusses the resources and intensity of sell-side analysts, the incentives at play, the tendency for CEOs to "pitch," the importance of corporate access, the bias towards "buy" ratings, and the concept of estimates being behind the curve.
• Fundamental Analysis (Wes Maddox): Highlights the "holy grail" of fundamentals: scalable businesses, accelerating revenue, expanding margins, recurring revenue, and pricing power.
• Hamanju Sharma's Multibagger Identification: Focuses on scanning for stocks with strong EPS ratings (80+), relative strength (RS) ratings (80+), and IPOs, with a preference for smaller-cap companies and those in infant industries.
• Earnings Surprise and Acceleration: Key fundamental indicators for identifying potential multibaggers, looking for a 25%+ jump in profitability and subsequent acceleration.
• Valuation Metrics: Use of PEG ratio (Price/Earnings to Growth) and consideration of starting PE ratios, especially during market corrections.
• Entry Setups: Emphasis on tight consolidations (less than 8% deep), pullbacks to key moving averages (21 or 50-day EMAs), and shakeout entries (undercut and rally/bear trap).
• Progressive Exposure (Chris Flanders): A risk management strategy involving trading with larger size when winning and reducing size when losing, with a default risk of 0.25-0.5% per trade and increasing to 2.5% on A+ setups.
• Death by a Thousand Cuts: The concept of avoiding large losses by taking many small, controlled losses to preserve capital and mental fortitude.
• Heat vs. Risk: Differentiating between initial equity risk and the potential draw down including open P&L.
• Leif Sera's Approach: Focuses on identifying leaders off bare market lows, thinking beyond perfect patterns, using alternative entry methods (earnings pivots, pullbacks), and trading liquid stocks with high RS ratings.
• High Tight Flag: A specific chart pattern characterized by a strong uptrend (flagpole), a tight consolidation (flag), and a breakout, often seen in leading growth stocks.
• Rocket Bases and Low Tide Flags: Variations of base patterns requiring more time or exhibiting even tighter consolidation.
• Earnings Pivots: Trading opportunities that arise after earnings reports, particularly when a stock shows strength or a tight consolidation post-earnings.
• Brad Freeman's Fundamental Process: Focuses on identifying companies within his circle of competence (consumer and enterprise software, consumer discretionary), analyzing demand KPIs (market share, RPO, GRR), profitability (economies of scale, margin expansion), dilution, and earnings revisions.
• Management Team Assessment: Evaluating track record, reputation, ability to meet promises, compensation structures, and communication transparency.
• Macroeconomic Factors: Acknowledging the influence of Fed policy and liquidity on risk assets, and the importance of not fighting the Fed's direction.
• Learning from Mistakes: The necessity of studying past trades, both winners and losers, to refine trading processes and emotional control.

1. Main Topics and Key Points with Specific Details, Facts, Figures, and Technical Terms

Oliver Kell's Swing Trading System

• Core Concept: "Cycle of Price Action" using 10-period EMA (red line) and 20-period EMA (blue line) for trend identification.
• "Green Light" Environment: Price above both EMAs, indicating a bullish trend suitable for long trades.
• "Red Light" Environment: Price below both EMAs, indicating a bearish trend or a signal to go to cash.
• Market Exposure Adjustment: Adjusting aggressiveness based on market cycle position.
• Key Stages of the Cycle:
  • Reversal Extension: Capitulation and significant stretch below EMAs.
  • Snapback to EMAs: Initial recovery towards moving averages.
  • Pullback/Tightening: Decreasing volatility and price structure tightening, often forming a higher low.
  • Wedge Pop: Breakout through the swing high after tightening, not necessarily crossing EMAs.
  • EMA Crossback: Pullback to the EMAs or the next higher low after a wedge pop, considered a low-risk entry.
  • Base and Break: Consolidation (1-3 weeks) back into EMAs, followed by a breakout. Strong markets might have multiple base and breaks.
  • Exhaustion Extension: Euphoria and greed driving prices higher, the opposite of a reversal extension.
  • Hard Flush Back: Sharp decline into EMAs after an exhaustion extension.
  • Wedge Drop: Breakdown after a potential exhaustion extension, often forming lower highs and lower lows.
• Fractal Nature: The cycle applies across different timeframes (weekly, daily, 65-minute, hourly).
• Strategy Implementation:
  • Higher Time Frame (Weekly/Monthly): Assess stock extension, breakout from multi-month bases ("bigger the base, higher in space"). Avoid trading stocks below the 20-week EMA.
  • Trade Management Time Frame (Daily/65-minute): Analyze and manage trades based on daily bars and EMAs. Scan for strength back through daily 10/20 EMAs (wedge pop). Watch for higher highs and higher lows on the 65-minute chart for finer entry points.
  • Execution/Risk Management Time Frame (30-minute/10-15 minute): Use daily EMAs on lower timeframes to avoid being shaken out by short-term noise. Set alerts around daily 10/20 EMAs.
• Advantages: Objectivity, fractal nature, price as the primary indicator, buying strength, ability to hold winners with EMAs.
• Disadvantages: Whipsaw potential with faster EMAs, potential for false signals in range-bound markets.
• Trend Price Structure: Emphasizes expansion (move up) followed by contraction (pullback/consolidation) as the definition of trend. Tight areas (mini bases) are crucial for expansion.
• Position Sizing: Top names (liquid, high beta): 30-35%. Liquid core: 15-20%. Volatile/cheaper stocks: max 7%. Volatile/higher-priced stocks: max 12%.
• Theme Identification: Charts lead to themes; look for strong stocks in in-play themes (e.g., AI, energy, crypto).

Roy and Wes Maddox's Insights

• Trend Following: The foundation of their strategy, aiming to capture the "meat" of the move (80%) by missing the first and last 10%.
• Market Not Random: Belief that the market can be beaten through tools and analysis, contrary to the "random walk" theory.
• Dominant Market Themes: Identifying and trading leading stocks within the strongest market themes for outperformance (alpha).
• Market Trend Awareness: Monitoring if stocks are above moving averages (10-day > 21-day > 50-day > 150-day > 200-day) to determine uptrend, downtrend, or pressure.
• Knowing When to Panic/Go to Cash: Crucial during "black swan" events (e.g., 9/11, Deep Sea news) when uncertainty is high. Sell first, ask questions later.
• Market Leaders: Can run longer and higher than expected; analysts are often behind on earnings estimates.
• Price Action: The only thing that matters; timely purchases and immediate confirmation are key.
• Risk Management & Capital Preservation:
  • Limit losses to a maximum of 1% of equity per position.
  • Avoid excessive risk and leverage.
  • Do not press positions unless there's a 10% cushion in the portfolio or individual stocks.
  • Daily returns in day trading are not practical; gains occur in periods (3-4 months).
  • "It's okay to be wrong, but it's not okay to be broke."
  • Avoid "set it and forget it" strategies; continuous monitoring is essential.
• Execution & Trade Management:
  • Press winners, sell losers.
  • Do not double down on losing positions.
  • Buy incrementally until a cushion is built; avoid overconcentration initially.
  • Don't wait for perfect conditions; clarity comes late.
  • Technicals Provide Timing: Fundamentals drive earnings momentum, but technicals provide entry/exit timing. Master chart reading, supply/demand.
• "The Can Slim" Method (William O'Neil): Focus on earnings, relative strength, IPOs, bases, and volume. High P/E stocks can be leaders, especially those with accelerating revenue and profit growth.
• Volume: Crucial for identifying institutional activity; follow the institutions.
• Momentum in Price: Finding stocks making new highs and all-time highs with explosive catalysts.
• Liquidity: Trade liquid names (hundreds of millions in daily volume) as they hold structure better and offer better execution.
• Technical Analysis: Essential for timing, understanding supply/demand, and requires years of mastery.
• Resources: Utilize platforms like TraderLine for information, follow respected traders on Twitter/X, and consider accountability partners or mastermind groups.
• Relative Strength: Focus on stocks in the 97-99 RS rating range for explosive upside potential.
• Expand Setup Toolbox: Utilize various successful setups beyond just one.
• Mindset, Psychology, Discipline: Mental fortitude is crucial; weed out losing trades and stick with working ones. Avoid day trading for consistent income.
• Conventional Wisdom: Often wrong, but never in doubt; fade the media's fear-mongering.
• Outperforming the S&P 500: The best traders can systematically outperform; aim to double the S&P 500's return over a market cycle for life-changing results.
• Key Takeaway: Stay disciplined, focused, humble, and always continue learning.

Hamanju Sharma's Multibagger Identification

• Definition of Multibagger: A stock that doubles in a year, often running 3x-5x in its bull phase (8-10 quarters).
• Past Winner Analysis: Studying past winners (e.g., from books like "Monster Stocks," "Trader Handbook," Mark Minervini, Dan Zanger) to identify common technical and fundamental templates.
• Technical Footprints:
  • Uptrend (90%+ of multibaggers).
  • Coming off lows during bare markets/corrections (50%+ above lows, above 200-day MA).
  • Close to highs (breaking out of 6-month bases).
  • Volume spikes.
• Fundamental Footprints:
  • Earnings surprise (>25% jump in recent quarter).
  • Earnings acceleration in subsequent quarters.
  • Infant industry.
  • PE ratio < 30 (especially during market corrections).
• Scanning Process:
  • EPS Rating Scan (Bread and Butter): Stocks with EPS rating 80+ and liquidity filters. Segregated into small-cap (100M-1.2B), mid-cap (1.2B-2B), and large-cap (>2B) lists. Prefers small-cap names for faster moves.
  • RS Rating Scan: Stocks in the top 20% of the universe, within 20% of 52-week highs, above 50% from lows, and above 200-day MA.
  • IPO Scan: Stocks listed within one year, with market cap >500-1000 Cr and price >50 INR.
• Scan Optimization: Using both TA and FA together can weed out too many names. Running EPS scan first is optimal as earnings often precede price moves. High EPS stocks often have high RS.
• Filtering Process:
  1. Run EPS scan (e.g., EPS rating 80+).
  2. Focus on smaller-cap names (<150 names).
  3. Look for earnings surprise (PAT jump >25% in recent quarter, not just cyclical).
  4. Consider starting valuation (PE ratio, PEG ratio <1).
  5. Identify infant industries (AI, data centers, renewables, eVTOL, drones).
  6. Flag remaining 20-30 names for potential earnings acceleration.
• Earnings Surprise vs. Acceleration: Looks for the initial surprise (first quarter of jump) and then monitors for acceleration in subsequent quarters.
• Industry Grouping: Identifies strongest industry groups by running RS scans and segregating results by industry. Focuses on the top 3-4 strongest groups.
• Entry Setups:
  • Long Base Breakouts: Prefers long bases with tight consolidation on the right side.
  • Flags and Pennants: Standard patterns.
  • Gap Filling: Downward gap, pause at 50/21 EMA, consolidation on the right, breakout of consolidation high.
  • Pullbacks: To support or key MAs (21 or 50-day).
  • Shakeout Entries (Bear Trap/Undercut and Rally): Price breaks MA and quickly reclaims it on high volume.
• Risk Management:
  • 1% risk per trade.
  • Stop loss at base low or consolidation low.
  • If a stock drops back below the breakout level after entry, trim half the position.
  • Do not remove the stop loss on the remaining half.
• Key Takeaway: Price, volume, and earnings drive winning stocks. Focus on tight consolidations and strong industry groups.

Leif Sera's Approach

• Focus: Thinking beyond patterns, identifying leaders off bare market lows, alternative entry methods, and managing risk.
• Stock Universe: Focuses on liquid stocks with high RS ratings (90+), avoiding thin stocks and small caps that haven't performed well.
• Trend Definition: Stocks in trend, with moving averages aligned (e.g., 50-day over 150-day over 200-day).
• High Tight Flag: A pattern with a strong flagpole, tight consolidation (flag), minimal overhead supply, and often an "N" factor (new product/service).
• Alternative Entries: Pullbacks, earnings pivots (trading after earnings), and shakeouts.
• Selling Strategy: Sell into strength, take profits at targets (e.g., 20% for a standard setup, more for A+ setups), use trailing stops, and consider selling half into strength.
• Earnings Pivots: Trading after earnings, waiting for confirmation (tight area pivot) rather than chasing gaps.
• Bare Market Lows: Identifying leaders that held the 200-day MA or showed strength off the lows, even if patterns weren't perfect. Examples: Spotify, Netflix, Take Two, Palantir, Uber, Carvana, Rocket Lab, CrowdStrike, SE.
• Key Takeaway: Study the bare market sequence, identify leaders early, think beyond perfect patterns, and manage risk by focusing on the "spirit of the pivot" and tightening areas.

Brad Freeman's Fundamental Process

• Inspiration & Crowd Sourcing: Uses opinions from respected individuals, Peter Lynch's "circle of competence," and personal observations of trends.
• Circle of Competence: Focuses on consumer and enterprise software, and consumer discretionary. Avoids sectors like biotech/healthcare due to lack of knowledge.
• Value & Risk-Reward: Evaluates companies based on holistic performance, not just traditional PE ratios. Considers PEG ratios, revenue growth, margin expansion, and historical valuation bands.
• Key Metrics:
  • Demand: Market share trends, annual recurring revenue (ARR), remaining performance obligations (RPO), gross revenue retention (GRR), same-store sales growth.
  • Profitability: Economies of scale (improving margins as revenue grows), EBIT/Operating Income (preferred over net income for some sectors), and monitoring for dilution (share count growth).
  • Earnings Revisions: Prefers stocks with upward earnings revisions ("up and to the right").
• Management Team Assessment: Evaluates track record, reputation, ability to meet promises, compensation, and communication transparency. Prefers accessible management that shares information proactively.
• Earnings Reports: Views them as progress reports. Analyzes key metrics, shareholder letters, and conference calls to gauge execution and future prospects.
• International Exposure: Considers population growth dynamics, GDP per capita, and underbanked/under-penetrated markets (e.g., Latin America for fintech). Avoids markets with stagnant population growth (e.g., Korea, Japan) unless there are strong mitigating factors.
• Acquisitions: Evaluates based on strategic fit, potential for cross-selling, impact on core business, and integration risks. Prefers smaller, strategic acquisitions over "blockbuster" purchases.
• Macroeconomic Factors: "Don't fight the Fed" is crucial. Acknowledges the impact of liquidity and Fed policy on risk assets. Currently favors risk-on due to expected rate cuts and easier liquidity.
• Bare Market Lessons (2021-2022):
  • Shifted from "growth at any price" to "great value at a great price."
  • Increased focus on macro, liquidity, and cyclicality.
  • Recognized that companies can have convoluted incentives to present a rosier picture.
  • Learned humility and the importance of respecting mistakes.
  • Reduced exposure to unprofitable companies and small caps.
  • Prioritized companies with strong fundamentals and proven business models.
• Position Sizing: Starts with 2% risk for unprofitable companies, grows to 4%. For profitable companies, starts at 3%, can grow to 6%. Breaks rules for compelling opportunities with strong rationale.
• CrowdStrike Example: Interpreted the software bug as a manageable issue rather than a core security breach. Valued their customer commitment packages and ecosystem stickiness. Lightened up position after the outage but recognized the long-term strength.
• IPO Investing: No strict rule against early investment but currently finds recent IPOs less compelling. Looks for strong fundamentals, reasonable valuations, and management quality.
• General Advice: Combine FA and TA, find what works for your personality, manage emotions, and focus on compounding.

2. Important Examples, Case Studies, or Real-World Applications

• Oliver Kell's Examples:
  • HOOD: Discussed as an example of a wedge pop, crossback, and multiple mini-bases, illustrating how to build a larger position by adding on progress.
  • COIN: Showcased a trade involving a significant volume spike, consolidation into the 20-day EMA, a pivot, and riding the moving averages.
  • SMR: Demonstrated a trade with contraction in volatility, pullback to the 20-day EMA, reconfirmation, and follow-through.
  • Coin (without moving averages): Illustrated a trade based purely on price structure, higher lows, and basing patterns, highlighting the importance of price action.
  • Nvidia, Tesla, Palantir, Hood: Mentioned as examples of strong stocks to study for the cycle and basing patterns.
• Roy and Wes Maddox's Examples:
  • MAG 7 Stocks: Highlighted as the dominant theme in 2023, where concentrated buying led to significant outperformance.
  • Apple, Google, Netflix, Price Line, Tesla: Examples of stocks that were the "rage" in 2023.
  • Heartland Express: Mentioned as a trucking company where communication was difficult, impacting model accuracy.
  • Win Resorts: Used as an example of a company claiming "unluckiness" in a quarter, with an analyst titling a note "claims unlucky, we beg to differ."
  • Palantir: Cited as an example of an inefficiently priced stock that the sell-side got wrong for a long time, but the buy-side understood its valuation premium.
  • Robin Hood: Mentioned as a company with clear secular tailwinds where quarterly performance might not be the primary focus for long-term investors.
  • Nvidia, Palantir, Hood: Examples of highly liquid, high-beta stocks that are preferred for trading.
  • Apple, Bu, Amazon: Previously high-flyers that are now considered less volatile and less interesting for trading by Oliver Kell.
  • Crowdstrike: Mentioned as a stock that consolidated through a period and ultimately moved significantly, but sometimes consolidations can be frustrating.
• Hamanju Sharma's Examples:
  • Precision Wire: Illustrates an earnings surprise with a PAT jump from ~20 CR to 30 CR, coupled with sales and margin acceleration.
  • HPL Electric: Showcases a significant earnings surprise (2x jump in net profit), highest ever margin, and highest ever sales, indicating a potential multibagger in the smart meter industry.
  • Wealth Management Name: Demonstrates earnings surprise, margin expansion, and sales acceleration in a growing sector.
  • Autocillary Name: Shows earnings surprise, margin expansion, and highest sales, with the stock blasting off after the earnings.
  • Insecticides India: Used as an example of a cyclical stock dependent on monsoon, showing earnings surprise in specific quarters but lacking sustainability, thus not considered a true multibagger candidate by his criteria.
  • Korean Stocks (Cospi Index): Used as an example for scanning with relative strength when EPS data is limited.
  • Quality Power: An IPO stock in the power sector that passed the IPO scan and showed a tight pivot entry, leading to a significant move.
  • Continental Coffee Limited: A stock with an earnings gap and a tight pivot, demonstrating a potential multibagger setup.
  • Force Motors: An example of a long base that was missed due to a strict focus on tight consolidation, highlighting the need to adapt entry criteria.
  • Mangalore Chemical: A fertilizer stock merging with another company, showing a tight consolidation and a powerful move after breakout.
  • Trading 10: An iPhone parts manufacturer showing a cup and handle pattern and a tight consolidation.
  • Nvidia: Mentioned as a company with a strong earnings reaction and a potential setup after earnings.
  • Roblox: Showcased a stock with a long base, a potential shakeout entry, and a standard breakout buy, illustrating pyramiding and managing risk.
  • Coin: Used as an example of a stock with a huge volume spike, consolidation into the 20-day EMA, and a subsequent massive expansion.
  • SMR: Demonstrated contraction in volatility, pullback to the 20-day EMA, reconfirmation, and follow-through.
• Leif Sera's Examples:
  • Tesla: Used as an example of a stock that might be popular but is out of trend for his strategy.
  • Axon: Showcased a high tight flag setup with an "N" factor (new product/service).
  • Rocket Lab: Mentioned as a stock where a post-earnings pullback was traded, and also as an example of a stock that doubled from its base and then formed a new base at all-time highs.
  • MSTR: Used to illustrate a handle that wasn't working, leading to a switch to IBIT. Also showed a double bottom base on the 200-day MA.
  • Take Two: Demonstrated a double bottom base with an undercut of the first low, a snapback, and a subsequent pullback and tightening.
  • Uber: Showed a breakout from a large base, followed by a pullback and a potential re-entry.
  • Palantir: Highlighted as a key market leader with a double bottom base, shakeout at the bare market low, and tightening consolidation.
  • Carvana: Used as an example of a stock that barely touched the 200-day MA during the bear market and then tightened up.
  • Chewy: Showcased a nice base with a pullback and an inside day turn, and also a potential handle low fish.
  • Roblox: Illustrated a stock that held the 200-day MA during the bear market and tightened up, showing a potential entry.
  • Cyber (Cybersecurity): Mentioned as a theme and a stock that had a shakeout and pullback, with potential for re-entry.
  • Schwab: Bought breaking a range with a double bottom and a potential upgrade, showing a spirit of a horizontal pivot.
  • BSX: A quality stock that was traded, but closed even due to sector weakness.
  • SE: Showcased a stock that touched the 200-day MA and tightened up off the bare market low, with a potential adback that failed.
  • Melly: Used as an example of a stock with strong earnings that pulled back, and the decision to size down due to uncertainty.
  • GEV: Mentioned as a nuclear energy name with a higher low and a potential earnings pivot.
• Brad Freeman's Examples:
  • SoFi: Highlighted for its CEO's track record, communication, and use of Galileo tech stack.
  • Trade Desk: Mentioned for its strong GRR and potential for growth.
  • Nvidia: Cited as a prime example of a company with massive growth rates, high operating margins (60%), and a strong technological lead, outperforming competitors.
  • Palantir: Presented as a company with a bubbly valuation but justified by its AI platform's utility, tangible quantitative evidence, and rapid customer onboarding.
  • ServiceNow: Considered a distant second to Palantir in monetizing GenAI.
  • Lululemon: Used as an example of a company that provided multiple excuses for poor performance, leading to a loss of patience and conviction.
  • Celsius: Highlighted for its understandable excuse (inventory resets with Pepsi) followed by market share declines and blaming macro, leading to the acquisition of Alani Nu.
  • Block (SQ): Mentioned for its lengthy shareholder letter that makes it difficult to find key financial data.
  • Galileo (formerly Technisys): Acquired by SoFi, seen as enhancing their core business and differentiation.
  • DraftKings: Cited as a potentially undervalued company with strong free cash flow compounding and a low PEG ratio.
  • Nvidia's Growth: 30-40% revenue growth, 60% operating margins, and demand for next-generation models needing 100x-1000x compute.
  • Palantir's Growth: Vastly outperforming analyst expectations with acceleration in growth, driven by its AI platform's utility.
  • Monopoly Analogy: Investing is like playing Monopoly and buying properties to build wealth, rather than just collecting $200 each turn.

3. Step-by-Step Processes, Methodologies, or Frameworks Explained

Oliver Kell's Swing Trading System

1. Identify Trend: Use 10 & 20 EMAs (Green Light = above, Red Light = below).
2. Assess Market Cycle: Determine position within the cycle (reversal extension, wedge pop, base and break, exhaustion extension).
3. Higher Time Frame Analysis: Check weekly/monthly charts for trend and base formation. Avoid stocks below 20-week EMA.
4. Trade Management: Analyze daily/65-minute charts for entry signals (wedge pop, EMA crossback, mini base).
5. Execution: Use lower timeframes (30-min/10-15 min) with daily EMAs for entry alerts, ideally near EMAs or after basing.
6. Risk Management: Set stops, manage position size based on risk tolerance.
7. Trade Management: Ride EMAs, look for basin breaks, and manage exits based on EMA breaks or blow-off tops.

Hamanju Sharma's Multibagger Scan & Entry Process

1. Scanning:
   • Run EPS Rating Scan (80+).
   • Filter by market cap (prefer smaller caps).
   • Identify Earnings Surprise (>25% PAT jump in recent quarter).
   • Consider Starting Valuation (PE, PEG <1).
   • Identify Infant Industry.
   • Flag 20-30 names for monitoring.
   • Run RS Scan and IPO Scan to capture names missed by EPS scan.
2. Industry Grouping: Segregate scan results by industry to identify strongest groups.
3. Entry:
   • Wait for setups: Long base breakouts, flags, tight consolidations.
   • Alternative entries: Gap filling, pullbacks to MAs (21/50-day), shakeouts.
   • Risk Management: 1% risk per trade, stop loss at base low. Trim half position if stock reverses below breakout level.

Leif Sera's Approach to Trading Leaders

1. Define Stock Universe: Focus on liquid stocks with high RS ratings, in uptrends, and ideally with minimal overhead supply.
2. Identify Leaders off Bare Market Lows: Look for stocks that held the 200-day MA or showed strength and tightening consolidation as the market turned.
3. Think Beyond Patterns: Combine pattern recognition with fundamental understanding and market context.
4. Alternative Entries: Consider earnings pivots, pullbacks, and shakeouts, especially when perfect patterns are absent.
5. Manage Risk: Use tight stops (e.g., 5% or below the low of the pattern/shakeout). Sell into strength, especially in choppy markets or after significant gains.
6. Progressive Exposure: Size up when trades work and the market confirms strength; size down when trades fail or the market environment is uncertain.
7. Theme Identification: Focus on leading sectors and themes (e.g., AI, cybersecurity, nuclear energy) and identify the strongest companies within them.
8. Study Case Studies: Analyze past market leaders and their setups to build pattern recognition and understand entry/exit strategies.

Brad Freeman's Fundamental Process

1. Inspiration & Crowd Sourcing: Gather ideas from surroundings, trends, and respected opinions.
2. Circle of Competence: Focus on familiar sectors (consumer/enterprise software, consumer discretionary).
3. Valuation & Risk-Reward: Analyze PEG ratios, revenue/profit growth, margin expansion, and historical valuation bands.
4. Key Metrics:
   • Demand: Market share, ARR, RPO, GRR, same-store sales.
   • Profitability: Economies of scale, margin expansion, EBIT/Operating Income, monitoring dilution.
   • Earnings Revisions: Favoring upward revisions.
5. Management Assessment: Evaluate track record, reputation, communication, and meeting promises.
6. Earnings Report Analysis: Read shareholder letters, analyze key metrics, and listen to calls for fundamental progress.
7. International Considerations: Assess population growth, GDP per capita, and market penetration for international companies.
8. Acquisition Analysis: Evaluate strategic fit, potential for cross-selling, and integration impact.
9. Macroeconomic Awareness: "Don't fight the Fed"; understand the impact of liquidity and Fed policy on risk assets.
10. Discipline & Process: Develop rules for entry, exit, and position sizing to remove emotion and improve consistency.

4. Key Arguments or Perspectives Presented, with Their Supporting Evidence

• Oliver Kell:
  • Argument: A systematic approach to swing trading based on price action cycles and moving averages can lead to consistent profitability.
  • Evidence: His own success as a US Investing Champion, detailed explanation of the cycle stages, and case studies of his trades.
• Roy and Wes Maddox:
  • Argument: Trend following, disciplined risk management, and focusing on market leaders within dominant themes are crucial for long-term success.
  • Evidence: Decades of trading experience, insights into the sell-side analyst world, emphasis on avoiding large drawdowns, and the power of compounding.
• Hamanju Sharma:
  • Argument: Identifying multibaggers requires a combination of fundamental screening (EPS, RS, IPOs) and technical entry setups, with a focus on earnings surprises and acceleration.
  • Evidence: Detailed scanning methodology, examples of past winners, and the process of filtering down to high-probability trades.
• Leif Sera:
  • Argument: Trading leaders off market lows, even with imperfect patterns, and managing risk through tight stops and progressive exposure is key to capitalizing on major rallies.
  • Evidence: His US Investing Championship win, analysis of trades from the recent bare market lows, and the concept of "thinking beyond the pattern."
• Chris Flanders:
  • Argument: Progressive exposure and strict risk management (keeping drawdowns small) are essential for longevity and compounding returns in trading, even more so than perfect entries.
  • Evidence: Personal journey from significant drawdowns to success, the impact of small losses vs. large losses on compounding, and the analogy to poker risk management.
• Brad Freeman:
  • Argument: A deep dive into company fundamentals, management quality, and macro trends, combined with a disciplined process, is crucial for identifying high-quality investments.
  • Evidence: Analysis of companies like Nvidia and Palantir, assessment of management teams, and the importance of understanding sector-specific KPIs and macroeconomic influences.

5. Notable Quotes or Significant Statements with Proper Attribution

• Oliver Kell: "The bigger the base, the higher in space."
• Oliver Kell: "Markets typically don't top until they have a lower high and they don't bottom until they have a higher low."
• Oliver Kell: "There's no excuse to ever chase."
• Wes Maddox: "It's okay to be wrong, but it's not okay to be broke."
• Roy Maddox: "The stock market is not random. You can beat the stock market."
• Roy Maddox: "The technicals provide the timing. The fundamentals drive the earnings momentum."
• Roy Maddox: "Momentum in price. Momentum in price. That's the secret and that's the magic elixir."
• Hamanju Sharma: "Price, volume, and earnings make for the winning stock."
• Hamanju Sharma: "I'm not boarding a running train."
• Hamanju Sharma: "If I have to pick just one scan, I'll use the EPS scan. I won't use the RS scan."
• Hamanju Sharma: "Winning horses don't come back to the gates."
• Leif Sera: "Think beyond the pattern."
• Leif Sera: "Don't have a lot of anger at yourself ever. Talk positive about yourself, but stay in your lane."
• Leif Sera: "Leaders present themselves at the lows in this manner for the most part."
• Leif Sera: "Buying when it's difficult, when stocks are setting up equals improving your odds."
• Chris Flanders: "Simple, not easy."
• Chris Flanders: "The bust is what kills compounding."
• Chris Flanders: "If you don't feel like an idiot, you're not managing risk."
• Chris Flanders: "Draw downs are inevitable. They will always happen. The key is keeping them as small and controlled as possible."
• Chris Flanders: "Don't be in a rush. Don't worry. If you have the discipline and the patience, it'll work out."
• Brad Freeman: "Don't fight the Fed."
• Brad Freeman: "Respecting the fact that there are other very smart people that do what we do and that have access to great data and that have great things to say."
• Brad Freeman: "The most important organ in the stock market is not the brain, it's the stomach." (Attributed to Peter Lynch)
• Brad Freeman: "FA people can learn from TA people and TA people can learn from FA people."

6. Technical Terms, Concepts, or Specialized Vocabulary with Brief Explanations

• EMA (Exponential Moving Average): A type of moving average that places a greater weight and significance on the most recent data points.
• Capitulation: A market event where widespread selling occurs, often driven by panic, leading to a sharp decline in prices.
• Reversal Extension: A sharp move below moving averages, indicating extreme selling pressure.
• Wedge Pop: A breakout through a price structure (swing high) after a period of tightening volatility.
• EMA Crossback: A pullback to the EMAs, often forming a higher low, considered a low-risk entry.
• Base and Break: A period of consolidation followed by a breakout, indicating potential for further upward movement.
• Exhaustion Extension: A sharp move driven by euphoria and greed, often unsustainable.
• VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern): A chart pattern characterized by progressively tighter price ranges, indicating decreasing volatility and potential for a strong breakout.
• RS Rating (Relative Strength Rating): A measure (often from IBD/MarketSmith) indicating how a stock's price performance compares to the overall market, with higher ratings indicating stronger performance.
• EPS Rating: A measure of a stock's earnings performance, considering recent quarters and historical data.
• PEG Ratio (Price/Earnings to Growth): A valuation metric that divides a company's P/E ratio by its earnings growth rate. A PEG ratio below 1 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth.
• Infant Industry: A sector in its early stages of development with significant growth potential.
• IPO (Initial Public Offering): The first time a company offers its stock for sale to the public.
• Tight Consolidation: A period where a stock's price trades within a narrow range, indicating reduced volatility and potential for a breakout.
• Shakeout Entry (Bear Trap/Undercut and Rally): A pattern where a stock briefly breaks below a support level (like an EMA) on high volume, then quickly reverses and moves back above it, trapping short sellers.
• Gap Filling: When a stock price moves to fill a previous price gap (either up or down).
• Moving Average: A technical indicator that smooths out price data by creating a constantly updated average price.
• Kager (Compound Annual Growth Rate): The mean annual growth rate of an investment over a specified period of time longer than one year.
• Draw Down: The peak-to-trough decline during a specific period for an investment.
• Loss Aversion: The psychological tendency to prefer avoiding losses to acquiring equivalent gains.
• Sunk Cost Fallacy: The tendency to continue an endeavor as a result of previously invested resources (time, money, or effort), even when it's clear that abandoning it would be more beneficial.
• Heat: The total equity at risk, including open P&L, if all stops are hit.
• RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations): A measure of future revenue from contracts that have not yet been fulfilled.
• GRR (Gross Revenue Retention): A metric indicating the percentage of revenue retained from existing customers over a period.
• EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes): A measure of a company's profit before deducting interest and income taxes.
• GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles): A common set of accounting principles, standards, and procedures by public companies.
• Non-GAAP: Financial measures that exclude certain items from GAAP results to provide a different view of performance.
• API (Application Programming Interface): A set of definitions and protocols for building and integrating application software.
• Geopolitics: The influence of political factors on international relations, which can impact markets and company performance.
• VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern): A chart pattern characterized by progressively tighter price ranges, indicating decreasing volatility and potential for a strong breakout.
• IPO (Initial Public Offering): The first time a company offers its stock for sale to the public.
• Fair Market Value: The price at which an asset would trade in a competitive auction setting.
• EPIC (Episodic Pivot): A significant price move often associated with a specific event or catalyst, like an earnings surprise.

7. Logical Connections Between Different Sections and Ideas

The presentations build upon each other, starting with Oliver Kell's systematic approach to identifying trends and executing trades, then moving to Roy and Wes Maddox's emphasis on market themes and risk management, followed by Hamanju Sharma's detailed fundamental screening for multibaggers and entry strategies. Leif Sera then bridges technical patterns with market context, particularly off bare market lows, and Chris Flanders provides the crucial risk management framework (progressive exposure) to survive and compound. Finally, Brad Freeman adds the fundamental layer, explaining how to evaluate companies beyond just technical setups, emphasizing the importance of understanding the business, management, and macro environment. The common thread throughout is the need for a disciplined process, robust risk management, and continuous learning to navigate market cycles and achieve long-term success.

8. Data, Research Findings, or Statistics Mentioned

• Oliver Kell: Mentioned that the best stocks typically hold the 10 or 20-period moving average.
• Roy and Wes Maddox: Stated that 90% of fund managers underperform the S&P 500. They aim to double the S&P 500's return over a full market cycle.
• Hamanju Sharma:
  • EPS rating of 80+ means a stock is in the top 20% of earning stocks.
  • Prefers stocks with a PE ratio less than 30, especially during market corrections.
  • PEG ratio less than 1 indicates the stock is growing faster than its PE.
  • A tight consolidation should be less than 8% deep.
  • Risk per trade is 1%.
  • If a stock drops back below the breakout level, trim half the position.
  • RS scan runs almost daily; EPS and IPO scans run every 7-10 days.
  • Found that 80% of multibaggers had earnings on the table.
  • Found that 18% of names overlap between EPS and RS scans.
  • Identified 20-30 names from thousands after applying filters.
• Leif Sera:
  • Prefers RS ratings of 90+ for market surge.
  • High tight flags often go farther than regular bases.
  • Biotech stocks can be volatile and risky.
  • Sold 70-80-90% of a position when extended from moving averages.
  • Found that holding to the 21-day EMA doubled his results compared to selling into strength.
  • Traded with 10-15% position size on leaders off the lows.
  • Managed risk with 5% stops or below the low of the pattern/shakeout.
  • Noted that the QQQ trailing 20-year Kager is 15%, and SPY is 13%.
• Chris Flanders:
  • Mentioned that a 25% CAGR for 10-15 years can lead to immense wealth.
  • Mark Minervini compounded at 100-150% for five years.
  • Quentin Quigley compounded at 100% for ten years.
  • A 50% losing year reduces a 20% CAGR to 12.5% total return and a 4% CAGR.
  • Default risk per trade: 0.25-0.5%.
  • Aggressive risk per trade: up to 2.5% when winning.
  • Maximum monthly loss target: 5%.
  • 10 consecutive losses at 0.5% risk = 5% draw down.
  • 20 consecutive losses at 0.25% risk = 5% draw down.
  • Avoided large drawdowns (>5% monthly) by cutting size when trades aren't working.
  • Has had more than 20 losing trades in a row.
  • Came back from a 60-65% draw down.
  • Found that holding to the 21-day EMA doubled his results compared to selling into strength.
  • If holding to the 21-day EMA, results could have been -10% in some years, but the +400% year would have been even higher.
  • The QQQ trailing 20-year Kager is 15%, SPY is 13%.
• Brad Freeman:
  • CrowdStrike: 30-40% revenue growth, 60% operating margins.
  • Nvidia: 30-40% revenue growth, 60% operating margins, demand for next-gen models needing 100x-1000x compute.
  • Palantir: 100x forward sales multiple, 15% revenue growth initially, now accelerating due to AI platform.
  • SoFi: 100%+ customer count growth initially, 15% revenue growth.
  • Lululemon: 8 consecutive years of beat and raise, then multiple excuses for misses.
  • Celsius: Understandable excuse (inventory resets) followed by market share declines and blaming macro.
  • New Bank: 19% YoY revenue growth, but 40% FX-neutral growth due to a 21-point currency headwind.
  • CrowdStrike's customer commitment packages are wearing off at the end of the year, potentially returning revenue growth to 25-30%.

9. Clear Section Headings for Different Topics

The summary is structured with clear headings for each presenter and their core topics, as well as a "Key Concepts" section at the beginning.

10. A Brief Synthesis/Conclusion of the Main Takeaways

The 2025 Trader Line Trading Conference's final weekend provided a comprehensive overview of successful trading methodologies, emphasizing a blend of technical analysis, fundamental understanding, and robust risk management. Oliver Kell detailed a systematic swing trading approach based on price action cycles and moving averages. Roy and Wes Maddox highlighted the importance of trend following, market themes, and disciplined risk control, while also offering insights into the sell-side analyst world and fundamental drivers. Hamanju Sharma presented a data-driven approach to identifying multibaggers through specific scanning criteria and entry setups, emphasizing earnings surprises. Leif Sera showcased how to identify and trade market leaders emerging from corrections, focusing on "thinking beyond the pattern" and adapting entries. Chris Flanders underscored the critical role of progressive exposure and strict risk management in achieving consistency and longevity, drawing parallels to poker strategies. Finally, Brad Freeman provided a deep dive into fundamental analysis, emphasizing company-specific KPIs, management quality, and macro awareness, while advocating for a disciplined, process-driven approach. Across all presentations, a recurring theme was the necessity of continuous learning, emotional control, and adapting strategies to market conditions and personal strengths, ultimately aiming for long-term compounding and financial freedom. The conference stressed that while technical patterns and fundamental analysis provide the "what," disciplined execution and risk management provide the "how" to navigate the markets successfully.