Three years of Meloni: Assessing the track record of Italy's far-right leader • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• National Deficit Reduction: Significant decrease in Italy's national deficit under Giorgia Meloni's government.
• Public Spending Reduction: A key strategy employed to lower the national deficit.
• Fiscal Revenue Increase: Another method used to improve public finances.
• Interest Rate Drop on Sovereign Debt: Reduced cost of borrowing for the Italian government.
• Cost of Public Debt: The financial burden associated with Italy's national debt.
• Poverty Line: The minimum income level required to meet basic needs.
• Productivity Crisis: A situation where the output per unit of input is declining.
• Inflation: A general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money.
• Energy Prices: The cost of electricity and gas, which has significantly impacted businesses.
• Labor Shortage: A lack of available workers to fill job vacancies.
• Visa Quotas: Government-set limits on the number of visas issued to foreign workers.
• Illegal Immigration: Entry into a country without authorization.
• Undeclared Employment: Work performed without being officially reported to tax authorities.
• Euroskepticism: Opposition to the expansion of the European Union's powers.
• Pragmatism and Realism: A practical and sensible approach to governance.
• EU Obligations: Commitments and responsibilities Italy has as a member of the European Union.
• Financial Markets: The global system of financial institutions and transactions.
• NATO: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a military alliance.
• Ideology: A system of ideas and ideals, especially one which forms the basis of economic or political theory and policy.
• Support for Ukraine: Meloni's government's stance on the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
• Dissuasion: The act of persuading someone not to do something.
• Left-wing Opposition: Political parties and groups with left-leaning ideologies.

Meloni's Government: Achievements and Challenges

1. Economic Performance and Public Finances

• Main Achievement: The government's principal success highlighted is the "spectacular decrease in the national deficit."
  • Figure: In 2022, the deficit exceeded 8% of GDP.
  • Projection: It is expected to fall to 3% in the current year.
• Key Strategies:
  • Reduction in public spending: A deliberate cutback in government expenditures.
  • Increase in fiscal revenue: Measures to boost government income.
  • Drop in interest rates on sovereign debt: Lower borrowing costs for the Italian state.
• Impact of Debt Cost Reduction:
  • Fact: The cost of Italy's "huge" public debt has "greatly diminished" recently.
  • Estimated Savings: This reduction saves an estimated 5 to 8 billion euros per year.

2. Social and Economic Hardship for Citizens

• Disconnection from Daily Life: Despite positive economic indicators, "many Italians cannot see a concrete improvement in their daily lives."
• Case Study: Contract Worker's Struggle:
  • Example: Fitbitsio, a contract worker, and his wife rely on a food bank to feed their three children.
  • Reason: "The cost of food has skyrocketed," making it difficult to make ends meet without a fixed salary.
• Poverty Statistics:
  • Figure: Almost 6 million people live below the poverty line in Italy, representing "nearly 10% of the population."
  • Trend: This number has "increased since 2023."
• Food Bank Observations:
  • Observation: A food bank distributes food to 400 families weekly.
  • Shift in Demographics: Previously, more immigrants sought help, but "over the past few years, more and more Italians are coming to us."

3. Productivity Crisis and Labor Shortage

• Productivity Crisis: Italy is experiencing a "productivity crisis," attributed to inflation and high energy prices.
• Impact of War in Ukraine:
  • Observation: A factory saw its "production costs shoot up" due to the war.
  • Mechanism: A "cascade of increases" occurred because suppliers, affected by rising gas and electricity prices, passed on these costs.
• Labor Shortage: Businesses are also facing a "shortage of labor."
• Example: Olive Oil Producer: An olive oil producer sought help from an agricultural union to find personnel.
• Government Initiative: Visa Program:
  • Plan: Meloni's government intends to issue "500,000 visas to non-European workers by 2028."
  • Context: This is an "unexpected position" for a leader who previously advocated for closing borders.
  • Process: Businesses submit requests to the Interior Ministry for visa approval. Workers have 1 to 6 months to enter Italy after visa issuance.
• Critique of the Initiative:
  • Insufficient: The country needs "over a million additional workers," nearly double the government's quotas.
  • Illegal Immigration Concern: An immigration lawyer argues the measure "does not help control illegal immigration either."
  • Undocumented Workers: "Four out of five foreign workers don't get their final papers and they're undocumented."
  • Consequence: This leads to "undeclared employment" and is described as a "sick system that has not been well managed."

4. International Relations and Political Stance

• Shift from Euroscepticism: Giorgia Meloni has surprised observers by becoming an "active partner in Brussels" after being a "diehard euroskeptic."
• Pragmatic Governance: She is described as having shown herself to be "very pragmatic and realistic."
  • Reasoning: She "understood that the country has obligations with the EU, the financial markets, and with NATO."
  • Ideological Flexibility: The statement suggests she prioritizes these obligations "over the name of ideology."
  • Moderation: She began shifting towards moderation "a few months before winning the election" and is now governing "like the head of moderate right-wing government."
• Support for Ukraine:
  • Unwavering Support: Meloni has shown "unfailing support for Ukraine," unlike some other European far-right leaders.
  • Quote: "Before diplomacy, comes dissuasion. I've always said I consider that support for Ukraine, meaning reestablishing an equilibrium between Ukraine and Russia is the precondition to achieve peace."
• Domestic Political Landscape:
  • Exploiting Divisions: Meloni is "taking advantage of the divisions in the left-wing opposition."
  • Outlook: The leader of the hard-right appears "set to remain in power until the end of her mandate in 2027."

5. Conclusion

Giorgia Meloni's government has achieved notable success in reducing Italy's national deficit through fiscal discipline and benefiting from lower debt servicing costs. However, these economic improvements have not translated into tangible improvements in the daily lives of many citizens, who are struggling with rising costs of living and increased poverty. The country faces a significant productivity crisis exacerbated by high energy prices and a persistent labor shortage. While the government's initiative to issue visas for foreign workers is a pragmatic step, it is deemed insufficient to meet labor demands and may inadvertently contribute to illegal immigration and undeclared employment. On the international stage, Meloni has adopted a pragmatic and moderate approach, fulfilling Italy's obligations to the EU, financial markets, and NATO, and demonstrating strong support for Ukraine, a departure from her previous euroskeptic stance. Her government's longevity is further bolstered by the disunity within the left-wing opposition.