Three theories of Trump’s strategy for American power | DW Analysis

Key Concepts

• Realism: A foreign policy approach prioritizing national interests and power over principles and values.
• Reverse Kissinger: An attempt to decouple Russia from China, mirroring Nixon's strategy of separating China from the Soviet Union.
• Spheres of Influence: A geopolitical concept where powerful nations exert dominance over their neighboring regions.
• America First: A political ideology emphasizing the prioritization of American interests above all else.
• Rules-Based International Order: A system of global governance based on established rules and norms.
• Manifest Destiny: A 19th-century American belief in the nation's divinely ordained right to expand its territory.

Realism: Power Over Principles

• Definition: Realism in foreign policy prioritizes a nation's concrete national interests in a hard-headed manner, as defined by Stephen Wertheim.
• Ukraine Example: A realist approach to the Ukraine war would seek a compromise to end the conflict quickly, contrasting with Biden's emphasis on defending Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity.
• Critique of Biden: Realists argue Biden leaned too heavily on a rules-based international order and framing foreign policy as a struggle between democracy and autocracy.
• Trump's Perspective: Trump views the international order as detrimental to the U.S., believing it has been exploited for decades.
• America First: This policy aligns with realism, prioritizing American interests and potentially leading to isolationism, as seen in the last century.
• Trump's Realism: Liana Fix describes Trump as a "realist businessman" focused on deals and normalization with Russia, regardless of Russia's role as an aggressor.
• Europe's Dilemma: Europe faces the choice of rearming with continued U.S. protection or appeasing Russia.
• NATO Concerns: Realists criticize NATO enlargement, particularly the inclusion of the Baltic states, questioning the U.S.'s willingness to defend them.
• JD Vance's Speech: Vance's address at the Munich Security Conference attacked European democracy, signaling a potential rift between the U.S. and Europe.
• Limitations of Realism: Alexander Gabuev argues that Trump's attacks on the U.S. alliance network are "unrealist" because this network is a key asset.

Reverse Kissinger: Ununiting Russia and China

• Historical Context: Nixon's 1972 visit to Beijing aimed to separate China from the Soviet Union, a coup of Cold War diplomacy orchestrated by Henry Kissinger.
• Trump's Goal: Trump aims to "ununite" Russia and China, who have grown closer under Putin and Xi.
• Two Forms:
  • Ambitious: Break the strategic partnership between Moscow and Beijing, bringing Russia to the West's side.
  • Modest: Give Russia more options, reducing its dependence on China.
• Challenges:
  • The Sino-Soviet relationship had existing problems, unlike the current Russia-China bond.
  • Russia is economically and security-dependent on China.
  • Neither Russia nor China wants confrontation.
• Risks for the U.S.:
  • Getting played by Russia, which has seen previous attempts to drive a wedge between it and China.
  • Past reset attempts with Russia have failed (e.g., Obama's reset, Biden's summit).
• U.S. Incentives for Russia:
  • Offer incentives to undo sanctions and restore economic ties with Europe.
  • Bring back American investment.
• Putin's Calculations:
  • Aware of Russia's unequal relationship with China.
  • Wants breathing space and could offer cooperation on international crises (e.g., Houthis, Iran).
  • Could contribute to nuclear weapons control.
• China's Perspective:
  • Uncertainty and sensitivity to shifts in the Beijing-Moscow dynamic.
  • Alignment with Russia is strategic, not tactical.
  • Views Washington as its primary, long-term adversary.
• Impact on Other Global Players:
  • India would welcome improved U.S.-Russia relations.
  • Europe might stabilize ties with China to hedge geopolitical bets.
• Nightmare Scenario for the U.S.: Coordinated attacks launched by Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.

Spheres of Influence: A Global Carve-Up?

• Trump's Actions: Trump's interest in acquiring Greenland, his comments about Canada becoming the 51st state, and his remarks about the Panama Canal suggest a desire to control America's backyard.
• Historical Context: Spheres of influence are associated with great power relations and empire from the 19th and 20th centuries.
• Manifest Destiny: Trump explicitly referred to America's 19th-century tradition of manifest destiny.
• Monroe Doctrine: The U.S. has claimed a sphere of influence over the Western Hemisphere since 1823.
• Imperialist Expansionism: Some view Trump's actions as imperialist expansionism, similar to Putin's actions in Ukraine and Xi's claims over Taiwan and parts of India.
• Trump's Rationale: Trump sees Canada and Greenland as assets to be acquired through pressure or incentives, even if it breaks international relations norms.
• Global Implications:
  • The world sees the U.S. and China as the same, not respecting the rules-based order.
  • This could lead to a carving up of the world into spheres of influence, with the U.S., China, and Russia agreeing to respect each other's domains.
• Consequences:
  • End of Ukraine's independence.
  • Taiwan loses autonomy.
  • China dominates Asia.
• Asian Powers' Response: Countries like Japan, Korea, the Philippines, and India will resist Chinese dominance.
• Risks of Conflict: Overlapping spheres of influence could lead to regional conflicts.
• Resistance at Home: Trump would face significant resistance in his own bureaucracy, Congress, and the media.
• More Modest View: Trump could exchange public assurances with Xi Jinping to reaffirm the one-China policy.
• Taiwan's Response: Taiwan is strengthening its defense and seeking closer ties with the U.S. (e.g., TSMC's investment in Arizona).
• Interlinked Conflicts: Conflicts in Europe and the Indo-Pacific are increasingly interlinked.

Conclusion

Trump's foreign policy approach is complex and potentially disruptive, drawing from realism, a reverse Kissinger strategy, and spheres of influence. While each strategy has its logic and potential benefits, Trump's character traits, such as bullying and impulsiveness, could derail his plans. The world is watching closely, and countries are preparing to adapt to the potential shifts in global power dynamics. The ultimate outcomes are uncertain, with a universe of unintended consequences possible.