Three Key Races to Watch Ahead of Election Day 2025

Key Concepts

• Mayoral Race (New York City): Zoran Mamdani is the projected winner, with significant double-digit gains in polling data. Early voting trends, particularly among younger demographics, are seen as favoring Mamdani.
• Gubernatorial Races (Virginia & New Jersey):
  • Virginia: Democrat Abigail Spanberger is the favorite, with high early voting turnout in Fairfax County expected to benefit her. The race is largely about the margin of victory, with a potential impact from the Republican Attorney General's race. The government shutdown is discussed as a factor, potentially motivating Democrats due to independent blame on Republicans. Federal worker cuts are also cited as energizing Democratic turnout.
  • New Jersey: A closer race than Virginia, with recent polling showing a one-point difference. While Democrat Mikie Sherrill is the favorite, the state's history of electing Republican governors and the unpopularity of both the Democratic governor and President Trump present challenges. Donald Trump's endorsement of Jack Ciattarelli and focus on energy prices are noted.
• California Proposition 50: A proposition to redraw the state's congressional map, promoted by Gavin Newsom. Significant spending (20 million) in favor of the proposition suggests a likely win, potentially allowing Democrats to flip 3-5 seats and secure vulnerable incumbents.
• Redistricting: The process of redrawing electoral district boundaries. Several states (Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio) have already passed maps benefiting Republicans, increasing the importance of California's redistricting for Democrats. The uncertainty of map finalization in various states for the 2026 midterms is highlighted.

Mayoral Race in New York City

The mayoral race in New York City is widely considered to be decided, with Zoran Mamdani projected to win. Polling data consistently shows Mamdani with double-digit gains, and recent early voting trends have not altered this outlook. Andrew Cuomo appears to have reached a "ceiling" in his support, with no indication of movement in recent polling. The surge in early voting is believed to benefit Mamdani, particularly due to increased participation from younger voters. This demographic was instrumental in his victory in the Democratic primary several months prior. While the early vote spike is a positive indicator for Mamdani, it is not seen as fundamentally changing the overall assessment of the race, with Mamdani remaining the clear favorite.

Gubernatorial Races: Virginia

In Virginia, the gubernatorial race is viewed as largely decided in favor of Democrat Abigail Spanberger. A significant surge in early voting in Fairfax County, a deep blue area, is expected to benefit Spanberger. The primary question for this race is the margin of victory, with some anticipating a lead of around ten points. A potential factor influencing the margin is the Republican incumbent's performance in the Attorney General's race further down the ballot; if the Republican pulls off an upset, Spanberger's win might be by a smaller margin.

The impact of a government shutdown on the Virginia race is also discussed. Historically, government shutdowns have influenced Virginia gubernatorial elections, as seen in Terry McAuliffe's win in 2013 during a shutdown. However, current views on the shutdown are largely divided along party lines. Independents tend to blame Republicans more than Democrats for the shutdown, which could potentially benefit Democrats. Furthermore, Virginia's large population of federal workers, who have been affected by budget cuts and force reductions, are seen as a key demographic that has energized Democratic turnout.

Gubernatorial Races: New Jersey

New Jersey presents a different scenario, with the gubernatorial race being much closer. While one recent poll from Emerson College indicated a one-point race, this is considered an outlier. On average, recent polling shows Democrat Mikie Sherrill leading by mid-single digits. This race is expected to be closer than the Virginia contest, which might surprise some given that Kamala Harris won both states by six points, suggesting similar partisan leanings.

New Jersey has a recent history of electing Republican governors, and no governor from the same party has served more than two consecutive terms since the 1950s. This historical trend makes a Republican win plausible. Despite this, Sherrill is considered the clear favorite. Donald Trump has endorsed Republican Jack Ciattarelli and has focused on energy prices as a key campaign issue. The "Trump factor" in New Jersey is complex; Trump made significant inroads in 2024, particularly in inner suburbs around New York City with minority voters. Ciattarelli is banking on replicating these gains while leveraging his strength in South Jersey. However, Trump ultimately lost New Jersey. Sherrill has attempted to distance herself from President Trump, but her debate performance, where she graded Trump's presidency an "eight," suggests a lack of significant daylight between her and the incumbent president, who remains unpopular. Even the incumbent Democratic governor, Phil Murphy, is also unpopular, at a similar level to Trump. Nevertheless, Sherrill is still favored to win.

California Proposition 50 and Redistricting

California's Proposition 50, concerning the redrawing of the state's congressional map, has seen substantial financial backing, with $20 million raised in its favor. This proposition is promoted by Gavin Newsom. The significant spending advantage (3 to 1) suggests a likely victory for Proposition 50. Latest polling indicates support for Proposition 50 is comparable to the number of voters who supported Kamala Harris in the state, who won by double digits.

If Proposition 50 passes, it could provide Democrats with an opportunity to flip three to five congressional seats in California and also strengthen the positions of several vulnerable incumbent Democrats. Mid-decade redistricting in California is considered highly significant due to the potential for substantial Democratic seat pickups.

The broader context of redistricting across the country is also highlighted. Several states, including Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, and as of recently, Ohio, have already passed congressional maps that are expected to benefit Republicans to varying degrees. This makes California's redistricting process particularly crucial for Democrats seeking to counter these Republican advantages. The ongoing and potential redistricting efforts in multiple states create uncertainty regarding the finalized congressional maps by the 2026 midterm elections, making it challenging for organizations like the Cook Political Report to project outcomes.