'Threats are changing' says the Chief of Defence Staff

Key Concepts

• Remembrance Sunday
• Nimrod tragedy
• Second World War
• Peace dividend
• Strategic Defence Review
• Great power competition
• Warfighting readiness
• Hollowing out of the armed forces
• Weapon stockpiles
• NATO
• Russia-Ukraine War
• GDP spending on defense
• Cyber warfare
• Drones
• Uncrewed technology
• Space as a warfighting domain
• Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
• Nuclear umbrella

Remembrance and Relevance of Sacrifice

Remembrance Sunday, occurring 80 years after the end of the Second World War, remains a crucial day for national reflection and for those in uniform. It is a time when the nation collectively remembers those who fought and died for their country, their freedom, and acknowledges the profound loss suffered by their families. For individuals, it also serves as a period of personal reflection.

The Nimrod Tragedy

The speaker, Richard Knighton, personally connects Remembrance Sunday to the 30th anniversary of the Nimrod tragedy. He recalls the loss of friends he served with at RAF Kinloss in September 1995, a date that coincided with his own 30th anniversary in his role. This personal connection underscores the enduring impact of such events.

Veteran's Perspective on Sacrifice

A veteran, Alec Penstone, expressed doubt about the worth of past sacrifices, stating, "the sacrifice wasn't worth the result that it is now." He recalled seeing "rows and rows of white stones of all the hundreds of my friends and everybody else that gave their lives."

Knighton's response to Penstone emphasizes the value of the sacrifice, asserting, "what he did and the sacrifice of his friends was worth it." He argues that the peace and stability brought about by the Second World War have been fundamental to the prosperity and freedom enjoyed in the UK, contrasting this with the suffering in nations that have not experienced such stability.

Military Readiness and Evolving Threats

The discussion shifts to the current state of military readiness and the changing nature of global threats.

The "Hollowing Out" of Armed Forces

The Strategic Defence Review, published earlier in the year, identified a "return of great power competition" and increased global uncertainty and volatility. It also described the "hollowing out" of the armed forces, a term referring to a loss of personnel and capability, a consequence of enjoying the "peace dividend" over the last 30 years.

Knighton, as head of the armed forces, prioritizes "warfighting readiness" and stresses the need for modernization and investment to address these challenges.

Current State of Readiness

While acknowledging the professionalism and commitment of the armed forces, Knighton admits to existing gaps in areas like "weapon stockpiles" and personnel numbers. However, he notes positive developments, such as more people joining the armed forces than leaving in the past year, the first time this has happened since 2021. Despite these improvements, he warns against complacency, as the world is perceived as more dangerous.

The War in Ukraine and NATO's Strength

The conversation touches upon the ongoing war in Ukraine and Russia's strategic position.

Russia's Strategic Position

Despite Russia's significant military expenditure (around 40% of its national income) and tactical gains on the ground, Knighton believes Russia is strategically losing. He points to the erosion of its war aims, the strengthening of NATO, and NATO's commitment to rearming as evidence.

NATO's Enhanced Capability

Knighton asserts that NATO is currently "stronger and more capable than Russia." He highlights the commitment made by NATO leaders at the HEG NATO summit to spend 5% of GDP on defense and security. He argues that Russia's fundamental war aims of subjugating Ukraine are failing.

Continued Support for Ukraine

Knighton emphasizes the importance of continued support for Ukraine, stating that the UK's efforts and those of its armed forces are crucial in helping Ukraine remain in the fight and exert pressure on Russia.

Future of Warfare and Technological Advancements

The discussion explores the evolving nature of warfare and emerging threats.

New Domains of Conflict

The evolution of technology has lowered the barriers for nations to acquire advanced capabilities. Knighton identifies "space as a warfighting domain" and "cyber as a means of disrupting a nation" as critical new areas. The advancement of "digital technology and uncrewed technology," exemplified by drones, also requires the UK and the West to adapt their armed forces.

Adapting to Adversaries

Knighton's primary goal is to ensure that the UK and the West can "adapt our armed forces faster than our adversary." He cites the situation in Ukraine as an example of how this adaptability can be effective.

International Cooperation on Drones

The UK is actively assisting other NATO members with the growing issue of drones. Knighton mentions recent requests for help from Belgium, where the UK has agreed to send personnel and equipment to assist in tracking and defeating drones.

Nuclear Deterrence and Testing

The potential for the United States to test a nuclear device for the first time in 30 years is briefly addressed.

UK's Stance on Nuclear Testing

Knighton states that it is not his place to comment on the US President's decisions. However, from a UK perspective, the "comprehensive test ban treaty is not something that we will be amending." He notes that no formal policy position has yet emerged from the US system regarding this matter. The "nuclear umbrella" provided by the US has been fundamental to European stability for the past 80 years.