This stock is once in a GENERATION‼️
By Financial Education
Here's a comprehensive summary of the YouTube video transcript:
Key Concepts
- Stock Market Performance: Discussion of current market trends, individual stock movements, and comparisons between different sectors and companies.
- MJ Stocks (Cannabis Industry): Analysis of the potential and challenges facing the cannabis industry, particularly due to government regulation.
- Win Resorts vs. RH: A comparative analysis of two "rich people stocks" with divergent performance, exploring the underlying reasons for their success and struggles.
- Strong Performing Stocks: Examination of companies like PayPal, Celsius, and Shopify and their prospects for continued growth.
- AI Integration: The impact of Artificial Intelligence on various companies and industries, including e-commerce and search engines.
- Tax Loss Harvesting: An explanation of how this tax strategy can negatively impact stocks with significant unrealized losses, especially towards the end of the year.
- Buy Watchlist: A prioritized list of stocks the speaker is considering for future investment, with justifications for each.
- Company Financial Health: Emphasis on analyzing balance sheets, debt levels, and cash reserves to assess a company's stability.
- Long-Term Investing: The importance of focusing on the long-term potential of companies rather than short-term fluctuations.
Public Account Performance
The speaker's public account is currently valued between $3.8 and $3.95 million, having gained $34,000 on the day of the recording.
Notable Stock Movements
- MJ Stocks: Many cannabis stocks saw significant gains, with Planet up 23% and Avon up 16%.
- Shopify: Experienced a 6% increase due to significant news regarding its business model.
- Celsius: Continued its strong performance, up another 4.5%.
- PayPal: Made a 3.5% move.
- Win Resorts: Continues to perform exceptionally well, up over 100% from its April lows. It is outperforming the NASDAQ and S&P 500 in 2025, even beating stocks like Nvidia.
- RH: In contrast to Win Resorts, RH is down 50% in 2025 and has been down 71% over the past four years, significantly underperforming the Qs and NASDAQ.
- Cava: Down 58% in 2025, while the S&P 500 is up 10% and the Qs are up 13%.
The Impact of Tax Loss Harvesting
A significant concern for stocks with substantial unrealized losses (like Cava, UPS, and RH) is tax loss harvesting. In November and December, investors who have realized profits in other stocks look to sell their losing positions to offset capital gains. This creates additional selling pressure on already struggling stocks, potentially driving their prices down further. This is particularly concerning in a year where the overall market is performing well, as these stocks would likely suffer even more in a down market.
Analysis of MJ Stocks (Cannabis Industry)
- Promise and Disappointment: The speaker notes that MJ stocks have been a significant disappointment despite the massive market potential for cannabis products in the United States.
- Market Size: The legal market was estimated at $75 billion a few years ago, and the speaker believes this number could be low.
- Governmental Hindrance: The primary obstacle is government regulation. The speaker argues that the government's approach creates an uneven playing field, making it difficult for legal businesses to compete with the illicit market due to high taxes and inability to write off certain expenses.
- Reclassification Needed: A reclassification of the space is deemed necessary. The speaker mentions that Trump has teased the idea of reclassification, which could be a massive catalyst for the industry.
- Speculative Nature: Due to government interference, all stocks in this space are considered highly speculative. The speaker holds small positions in companies like Planet and Avant, acknowledging the potential for significant upside (e.g., a $100 million market cap company like Planet potentially reaching $10 billion) but also the immense risk.
- Government Incompetence: The speaker expresses strong criticism of both federal and state governments for hindering the industry's growth.
Win Resorts vs. RH: A Tale of Two "Rich People Stocks"
- Divergent Paths: Win Resorts (a resort company) is performing exceptionally well, while RH (a furniture company) is struggling significantly. Both cater to affluent consumers.
- Consumer Behavior: The speaker highlights that people are more likely to spend on experiences (like vacations at Win Resorts) than on big-ticket items like furniture, especially when housing market conditions are unfavorable. The analogy is made that people are not selling multi-million dollar homes with low mortgage rates to buy new furniture.
- RH's Financial Woes:
- Low Cash Reserves: RH has only $34 million in cash, which is considered very low for a multi-billion dollar company, akin to a middle-class person having only $100 in an emergency fund.
- High Debt: The company has significant debt, including a term loan of nearly $1.9 billion and another of $467 million.
- Shareholder Deficit: RH has a shareholder deficit of over $40 million.
- Balance Sheet Deterioration: This is a stark contrast to three years prior when RH had over $2 billion in cash and equivalents and $1.2 billion in stockholder equity.
- CEO's Decision: The speaker attributes this decline to the CEO's decision to undertake a massive share buyback, which is considered one of the worst corporate decisions.
- Bankruptcy Risk: The speaker raises the question of whether RH could go bankrupt if the economy worsens or the housing market doesn't recover.
- Win Resorts' Strength:
- Strong Cash Position: Win Resorts has nearly $2 billion in cash and cash equivalents.
- Strategic Prudence: Unlike RH, Win Resorts did not engage in risky balance sheet gambles.
- Middle East Expansion: A significant catalyst for Win Resorts is a $5 billion integrated gaming resort project in the Middle East, scheduled to open in 2027. This project is unique in the region and is compared to the success of Las Vegas Sands' Marina Bay Sands.
- Post-Steve Wynn Performance: The speaker notes that Win Resorts properties have maintained or even improved in quality and customer service since Steve Wynn's departure, which is surprising given the decline of MGM properties after he sold them.
Strong Performing Stocks: PayPal, Celsius, Shopify
- Shopify:
- AI Integration: Shopify is poised to benefit significantly from OpenAI's new "instant checkout" feature, which allows single-item purchases directly through ChatGPT. This feature will be available to over 1 million Shopify merchants soon.
- Monetization Strategy: The speaker believes OpenAI will monetize its platform through ads and commerce, not just subscriptions, which is a huge opportunity for Shopify.
- Long-Term Potential: The speaker owns Shopify in their Patreon portfolio and sees it as a potential trillion-dollar company by the 2030s, provided it continues its 20-30% revenue growth.
- Celsius:
- High Growth: Celsius is identified as an "ultra high growth stock" with a massive runway for continued growth.
- Investor Attraction: Its impressive growth rates will continue to attract investors, with future opportunities in margin and EPS expansion.
- PayPal:
- Undervalued: The stock is considered "dirt cheap" with a forward P/E of around 12.
- Growth Requirement: PayPal needs to demonstrate better growth rates (ideally 7% revenue growth, compared to its current 5%) to attract more investor confidence and drive the stock higher.
- AI Beneficiary: Monetization efforts by AI companies like ChatGPT are seen as bullish for PayPal.
Speaker's Buy Watchlist (Prioritized)
- Salesforce (CRM): A newer position for the speaker. Believed to be a significant future beneficiary of AI, though not yet reflected in its stock price. The valuation has become more attractive, and the speaker has confidence in CEO Marc Benioff.
- Adobe (ADBE): Despite some negative sentiment, the speaker praises Adobe's consistent financial performance, strong balance sheet, and innovation, particularly in AI.
- Amazon (AMZN): Remains a buy due to continued growth in e-commerce, expected acceleration in AWS growth in 2026, a strong ads business, and AI initiatives like Bedrock.
- Google (GOOGL): Despite a recent strong run, Google remains a buy with a forward P/E of 22. The Gemini opportunity and its dominant search position are key factors. The speaker highlights Google's continued high ranking in app downloads, indicating ongoing user engagement.
- Nike (NKE): The speaker hopes for a price dip before the end of the year to add to their position, as they are nearing completion of their Nike buying.
- Cheesecake Factory (CAKE): Consistently a buy. The speaker sees significant future potential in the expansion of its Flower Child and North Italia concepts. The company is well-positioned regardless of economic conditions, benefiting from potentially lower construction costs and favorable interest rates in a weaker economy, or strong sales in a booming economy.
- SoFi (SOFI): Continues to be of interest due to its insane growth rates and incredible long-term opportunity.
- Cava (CAVA): The stock continues to be beaten down. The speaker is considering initiating a position in December or January 2026 if the downward trend persists.
- Bath & Body Works (BBWI): A consistent, profitable business with a low forward P/E that is not heavily impacted by low consumer sentiment due to its product offerings (soaps, lotions, candles).
- Whirlpool (WHR): The speaker is monitoring the situation, particularly regarding potential November tariffs and Supreme Court rulings. If conditions are favorable, a significant position could be initiated, banking on a housing rebound and tariffs.
- Planet Spec: A speculative play.
- RH: The speaker wants to see the stock fall further, ideally below $150 or even $100, before considering it, acknowledging its speculative nature at its current price.
Conclusion and Call to Action
The speaker emphasizes the importance of focusing on the long term and investing in stocks that will be valuable for years to come. They also encourage viewers to like the video, subscribe to the channel, and check the pinned comment for information on joining their private stock group, accessing premium research, and course curriculums.
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