This is 'drawing blood,' pollster warns

Key Concepts

• ICE Tactics & Public Opinion: Public perception of ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) is shifting, with increasing disapproval of tactics but continued support for deporting criminal illegals.
• E-Verify: A system for verifying employment eligibility, highly popular with voters as a means of controlling illegal immigration.
• Sanctuary Cities: Cities with policies limiting cooperation with federal immigration enforcement, seen by many as contributing to violence and crime.
• Systematic Reform: A broad demand for fundamental changes in government, driven by distrust and a desire for accountability.
• Waste, Fraud, and Abuse: A popular issue, particularly with younger voters, focused on reducing government spending and corruption. (Often referred to as "Doge" due to Elon Musk's advocacy).
• Economic Populism: Focusing on policies that benefit the working and middle classes, including wage increases and reducing the influence of corporations.

Public Opinion on ICE and Immigration Policy

The discussion centers on the current political landscape surrounding ICE and immigration, particularly in light of recent polling data from Rasmussen Reports. Mark Mitchell highlights a complex situation: while policies like mass deportation and removing criminal illegals remain popular (around 80% approval), Donald Trump’s overall approval rating has dropped to a net negative of -16, the lowest since December 2017. This decline is attributed to negative public perception of ICE tactics, specifically “the optics” of actions like using tear gas. Mitchell notes an uptick in support for sanctuary policies and a growing sentiment that ICE tactics are “too harsh.”

However, Mitchell emphasizes a largely untapped area of public support: going after businesses that employ illegal immigrants. He cites a +26 approval rating for imposing strong penalties on businesses utilizing the E-Verify system – a significantly higher approval rate than Trump’s overall rating. He contrasts this with the negative reaction to visible, forceful ICE actions, stating, “the idea of thugs shooting in the face with tear gas canisters on nightly news is not as popular.”

The Debate Over Sanctuary Cities and Federal Cooperation

Jason Miller argues that Democrats are attempting to “defund ICE” and obstruct cooperation between federal law enforcement and local authorities. He contends that Democrats are using DHS funding as leverage to force concessions on immigration policy. Miller points to cities like Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota, as examples of localities refusing to cooperate with ICE, linking this lack of cooperation to higher crime rates. He cites statistics showing that cities cooperating with ICE have lower levels of violence, and attributes the recent 125-year low in murders to President Trump’s policies. He states that 67% of people believe ICE and local law enforcement should work together.

The Need for Systematic Reform and Addressing Distrust

Mark Mitchell stresses that the core issue isn’t just immigration policy, but a broader lack of trust in the federal government. He notes that only 30% of Americans trust the federal government and that a majority believe their children will not be better off than their parents. He argues that Biden’s actions have exacerbated this distrust by appearing to “weaponize the federal government.” Mitchell identifies a strong demand for “systematic reform,” fueled by concerns about waste, fraud, and abuse. He points to the popularity of Elon Musk’s advocacy for addressing these issues (“Doge”) and the fact that it resonated particularly with younger voters, achieving a 60% job approval rating for Trump among those under 40.

The Economic Message and the Importance of Addressing Waste

The conversation turns to the challenge of communicating the positive aspects of the economy. Despite seemingly strong economic indicators (4-5% growth), many Americans don’t feel the benefits. Miller suggests framing the narrative around how Americans are better off now than under Biden, citing declining inflation, increased purchasing power, and tax cuts. He emphasizes the need to focus on securing the border and deporting criminal illegals.

Mitchell argues that the focus on GDP is insufficient. He believes voters are concerned about issues like being priced out of the housing market, job displacement, and the influx of H-1B visas. He reiterates the importance of addressing waste, fraud, and abuse, referencing a GAO study estimating $550 billion in wasteful spending. He notes that the “Doge” movement, focused on cutting waste, unexpectedly captured the attention of young voters.

Crafting a Winning Republican Message

Both panelists agree on the need for a clear and compelling message. Miller suggests highlighting the contrast between Trump’s policies and Biden’s, emphasizing economic gains and border security. He also points to the Democrats’ unanimous vote in favor of a $5 trillion tax hike as a key point of contrast.

Mitchell advocates for a “Manhattan Project” level of message discipline, urging Trump to adopt a “wartime president” persona focused on “brutal, visible government reform” and “draining the swamp.” He stresses the importance of economic populism, focusing on increasing wages and restoring the American middle class. He believes Republicans need to tap into the demand for systematic reform and address the concerns of younger voters.

Notable Quotes

• Mark Mitchell: “Donald Trump got elected last year because every one of his policies was more popular than he was.”
• Mark Mitchell: “Again it’s totally just about the optics and this is drawing blood.”
• Jason Miller: “Democrats don't want to talk about that [economic growth]. What they want to try to talk about are sideshows and distractions.”
• Mark Mitchell: “They [young voters] want people who are fraudulent punished and that includes businesses, that includes politicians.”

Technical Terms

• E-Verify: An internet-based system used by employers to verify the employment eligibility of their employees.
• Sanctuary Cities: Municipalities that limit their cooperation with federal immigration enforcement efforts.
• GAO (Government Accountability Office): An independent agency of the legislative branch that investigates how the federal government spends taxpayer dollars.
• H-1B Visa: A non-immigrant visa that allows U.S. employers to temporarily employ foreign workers in specialty occupations.

Logical Connections

The discussion flows from an assessment of current polling data on ICE and immigration to a broader analysis of public distrust in government and the need for systematic reform. The conversation then pivots to the challenge of communicating economic success and crafting a winning message for Republicans. The panelists consistently link specific policy issues (like sanctuary cities and E-Verify) to broader themes of public opinion, economic anxiety, and the demand for accountability.

Conclusion

The conversation reveals a complex and nuanced political landscape. While certain immigration policies remain popular, public perception of ICE tactics is declining, contributing to a broader erosion of trust in the federal government. Republicans face the challenge of effectively communicating economic gains and addressing concerns about waste, fraud, and abuse. A successful strategy requires message discipline, a focus on systematic reform, and a willingness to address the concerns of younger voters. The panelists suggest that tapping into the demand for accountability and economic populism is crucial for regaining public trust and winning future elections.