This Is A Deliberate SHAKEOUT - Don't Get Thrown Off | Andy Schectman

Key Concepts

• Market Volatility: Significant fluctuations in precious metals and equity markets, particularly the “Magnificent 7” tech stocks.
• COMX Delivery: The process of fulfilling silver contracts on the COMEX exchange, highlighting potential stress due to high open interest and limited registered silver.
• Margin Increases: Significant increases in margin requirements for hedging, impacting refiners and smaller dealers.
• Shanghai Premium: The price difference between silver in Shanghai and Western markets, indicating strong demand in China.
• Pre-33 Gold & Junk Silver: Older forms of gold and silver currently experiencing unusually low premiums, presenting a potential buying opportunity.
• Refinery Bottleneck: Disruptions in silver refining capacity due to margin increases and logistical challenges.
• Dollar Decline & Gold as Reserve Asset: The growing belief that the US dollar’s reserve status is weakening, leading to increased interest in gold as an alternative.
• Contrarian Investing: A strategy of investing against prevailing market sentiment, often involving buying undervalued assets.

Market Update & Precious Metals Analysis (February 16th - 23rd, 2026)

This discussion, featuring Kaiser Johnson of Liberty and Finance and Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin, focuses on current market conditions, particularly volatility in precious metals and equities, concerns about potential government intervention, and opportunities within the silver and gold markets.

I. Broad Market Volatility & Equity Concerns

The conversation begins by acknowledging widespread volatility, extending beyond precious metals to include significant declines in major tech stocks ("Magnificent 7") despite record retail equity inflows. Specifically:

• Tech Stock Performance (YTD 2026): Nvidia (-2%), Google (-2.5%), Meta (-3%), Apple (-6%), Tesla (-7%), Amazon (-14%), Microsoft (-17%).
• S&P 500 Breakdown: 115 of the 500 stocks have fallen at least 7% in a single day over the last eight sessions, a historically rare occurrence (happening only 1% of the time in the last 30 years). Despite this, the S&P 500 itself is only down 2.5% from its high.
• Historical Drawdown Expectation: This internal breakdown historically suggests a potential 35% drawdown, similar to what was seen in 2000.

II. Debunking Rumors of Government Intervention

Andy Schectman addresses circulating rumors, primarily originating from Asian AI channels, regarding new government reporting requirements or potential confiscation of precious metals. He emphatically states:

• No New Laws: There are no new laws regarding confiscation, reporting (1099 or Form 8300), or restrictions on selling metals.
• Source Reliability: He recommends caution with information from these channels, highlighting OG John AG as a relatively reliable source, but still advocating for independent fact-checking. He emphasizes the importance of verifying information, as many claims are demonstrably false.
• Potential Motivation for Rumors: The spread of misinformation may be an attempt to induce panic selling.

III. Silver Market Dynamics & COMEX Delivery

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the silver market, particularly the upcoming March silver contract delivery:

• Open Interest: As of February 17th, 2026, 58,770 contracts (294 million ounces) were open for the March silver contract. Approximately 100 million ounces have rolled over to the May contract.
• Registered Silver Supply: The amount of silver registered and available for delivery is approximately 90 million ounces.
• Potential Delivery Crisis: If even 20% (60 million ounces) of the open interest stands for delivery, it could strain the available supply.
• COMX Response: COMX may be forced to drain registered inventory, increase premiums for immediate delivery, or incentivize rolling contracts to May.
• Shanghai Premium: A persistent $10 premium for silver in Shanghai, even accounting for VAT taxes, indicates strong demand and a potential shift in price discovery away from Western markets. This arbitrage opportunity incentivizes moving silver eastward.
• Backwardation: The difficulty for market makers to source silver is leading to backwardation, where futures prices are higher than spot prices.
• Refinery Issues: Margin increases have significantly increased the cost of hedging for refiners, leading to a backlog in processing and a reduction in liquidity.

IV. Gold Market & Long-Term Fundamentals

The conversation shifts to gold, highlighting its potential as a reserve asset:

• Central Bank Demand: Central banks purchased nearly 900 tons of gold in 2025, a significant increase.
• Dollar Weakness: The long-term outlook suggests a weakening US dollar due to factors like the need for massive infrastructure investment and the inability to fund it through traditional means.
• China’s Economic Strength: China’s continued investment in energy infrastructure and manufacturing provides a competitive advantage.
• David Einhorn’s Perspective: Billionaire investor David Einhorn believes gold is well on its way to becoming the world’s ultimate reserve asset.
• World Gold Council Survey: 80% of central banks surveyed by the World Gold Council expect gold to represent a higher share of their reserves in the next five years.

V. Investment Opportunities & Contrarian Strategy

Schectman identifies specific opportunities based on current market anomalies:

• Pre-33 Gold: Premiums on pre-1933 gold are unusually low, presenting a potential buying opportunity.
• Junk Silver (90% Silver Coins): Premiums on junk silver are also historically low, making it an attractive investment despite current market conditions.
• Valkcami Silver Bars: 100oz Valkcami silver bars are available at $7.95 over spot, offering a rare opportunity to acquire high-quality Swiss silver.
• Contrarian Investing: He advocates for a contrarian approach, buying undervalued assets when others are fearful. He emphasizes the importance of patience and the understanding that markets can remain irrational for extended periods.

VI. Weekly Specials (February 16th - 23rd, 2026)

• 1oz Gold Maple Leafs: $125 over spot.
• 2026 1oz Silver Australian Year of the Horse Coins: $8.95 over spot.
• 100oz Silver Valkcami Bars: $7.95 over spot per ounce.
• Contact: 1-888-881-Liberty (1-888-815-4237)

VII. Concluding Remarks & Key Takeaway

Schectman concludes by reiterating the strength of the long-term fundamentals for both gold and silver, despite current volatility. He urges investors to “hang on,” “don’t sell your metal,” and recognize that the current market upheaval is part of a larger shift in the global financial system. He emphasizes the importance of independent thinking and resisting the urge to follow the herd. The volatility is expected to continue, but those who remain steadfast will likely benefit.

Quote: “The volatility, the counterintuitive rhetoric, all of this stuff, that's all part of what they've done forever. And as the stakes get higher, so too will the volatility. And the ability for those to hang on will be less and less and less. Don't let go. Don't sell your metal.” – Andy Schectman.