"This Could Be the Beginning Of A Crash" Got Gold & Silver? - Mike Maloney

Key Concepts

• Market Tops and Economic Crash: The potential for current market tops and the initiation of a significant economic crash.
• Geopolitical Turmoil and Gold: Gold's historical role as a protector during periods of geopolitical instability and the fall of empires.
• China's Gold Accumulation Strategy: Speculation about China's significant, potentially unreported, gold reserves and their strategy of dumping US Treasuries for gold.
• Gold Per Capita vs. Total Holdings: The argument that gold holdings per citizen are a more significant indicator of wealth than total national reserves.
• Gold-Silver Ratio Strategy: Utilizing the gold-silver ratio to maximize gold acquisition by buying silver when the ratio is high and converting to gold when it drops.
• Central Bank Preparedness: The need for central banks to prepare for unexpected crises and the role of gold in such scenarios.
• Currency Devaluation: The historical and current parallels of currency debasement, comparing the US dollar's decline to that of the Roman silver denarius.
• Fiat Currency vs. Coinage Debasement: The ease with which fiat currencies can be debased through digital creation compared to the limitations of debasing physical coinage.
• The Fall of Empires and Rise of Dictators: The historical correlation between currency devaluation, economic collapse, and the rise of authoritarian regimes.
• Real Assets and Rebuilding: The importance of holding real assets like gold and silver for personal protection and participation in future rebuilding efforts.
• Loss of Confidence in Monetary and Political Order: Gold price surges as an indicator of profound distrust in the existing financial and political systems.
• The Great Gold and Silver Rush of the 21st Century: The ongoing trend of precious metals as the best-performing asset class of the current century.
• Scale of Economic Bubbles: The increasing size and potential for deflation of global economic bubbles.
• Modern Dark Age Scenario: The possibility of a severe societal collapse, potentially triggered by economic crises and supply chain disruptions.
• Hidden Secrets of Money Series: Educational content, particularly episodes 9 and 10, drawing parallels between the fall of the Roman Empire and the potential decline of the American Empire.

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Potential Market Tops and Imminent Crash

The discussion begins with a strong assertion that the markets may have already reached their peak. The current geopolitical tensions, specifically the "game of chicken" between Presidents Trump and Xi, are highlighted as extremely dangerous and potentially triggering a global economic crash. October is identified as a "spooky month" with the possibility of this crash commencing. The speakers emphasize that individuals cannot reverse these trends but can focus on self-preservation and benefiting from the situation for themselves and their loved ones. The core advice is to "hold real assets" to be part of the subsequent rebuilding process.

Gold as a Hedge Against Geopolitical Turmoil

Alan introduces the topic of gold's historical efficacy in navigating geopolitical crises, noting the observed "fall of empires around the world." Gold is presented as a time-tested protector for centuries, even millennia.

China's Gold Accumulation Strategy and Reserve Discrepancies

A significant point is made about China's strategy to "dump US treasuries and buy gold." There is speculation, supported by the CIA's alleged uncovering of this plot, that China possesses double the amount of gold they officially report. The influx of gold into China is described as suspicious, with the assertion that China "basically they lie all the time." Charts showing sudden jumps in reported gold stocks, even after periods of reporting no accumulation, are cited as evidence. Estimates for China's gold holdings range from 6,000 to 20,000 tons, while the US officially holds about 8,000 tons. This raises the possibility that China may possess more gold than the US.

The Importance of Gold Per Capita

The discussion shifts from total national gold holdings to the more crucial metric of "gold per citizen." While the US might be second in total holdings, if China's population has to share a larger total reserve, the US could be considered richer on a per capita basis. The US is noted to rank around 12th in gold per capita, a figure that is not at the top. The speakers encourage individuals to consider their own "ounces per person in your family," suggesting that owning even one ounce per person is more than the average and therefore significant.

The Gold-Silver Ratio Strategy

A specific investment strategy is presented: collecting silver and then following the "gold silver ratio." The advice is to convert silver to gold when the ratio drops to 20 or below, which could yield "four, five times more gold than you paid for." This strategy is reported to be working well.

Central Bank Preparedness and Gold's Role

A quote from John Williams, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, is shared: "Central banks must prepare for the unexpected in moments of disorder. Remember, gold shines the brightest." This statement is interpreted as a recognition by central banks of unprecedented crises (Euro crisis, Russia-Ukraine war, COVID-19) and their inability to forecast future events. They must be prepared to use "every tool in their toolkit, including the most extreme emergency measures." For individual investors, the implication is to "hold gold" as a means of navigating these crises.

Silver's Volatility and Opportunity

While gold is highlighted, silver is also discussed as a valuable asset. It is acknowledged as more volatile, experiencing sharp declines during crises like 2008 and the COVID crash. However, these dips are framed as "another opportunity." The recommendation is to "hold a little bit of both," understanding that in a major crisis, while other assets fall, gold and silver will eventually "turn around and go north."

Historical Currency Devaluation: Rome vs. USA

A stark comparison is drawn between the US and the Roman Empire regarding currency devaluation. Carl B. Manganger is quoted stating, "It took the US a hundred years to do what the Roman Empire did in 250 years. It's not looking good, folks." A chart illustrates the US dollar losing value precipitously, even faster than Rome's silver denarius.

Mechanisms of Currency Debasement: Coinage vs. Fiat

The historical method of debasing Roman currency involved melting down coins and adding copper, a process limited by the amount of coinage in circulation and collected through taxes. This allowed for deficit spending but could not debase all coins simultaneously. In contrast, with fiat currency, the "printing press and a keyboard" allow for instantaneous and widespread dilution of the entire currency supply. Joseph Wang, former chief trader at the New York Fed, is mentioned as someone who "got to spend trillions of dollars" that were "made up when he typed them into existence." This new technology enables debasement on an unprecedented scale, akin to the Roman government being able to alter the silver content in all circulating coins simultaneously. Doubling the quantity of currency is presented as a way to devalue the dollar by 50%, with prices quickly adjusting to compensate.

The Cycle of Empire Collapse and Dictatorship

The consequence of such currency devaluation and economic instability is identified as the "rise of dictators and the fall of empires." Jeff Park's question about historical instances where governments collapsed and others became rich is addressed with George's reply: "When Rome debased its currency, the senators hoarded gold and land while the empire burned. Same playbook, new costumes." The advice remains to "protect yourself" as individuals cannot change government operations, but they can "benefit off of it for ourselves and our loved ones" by holding real assets.

Gold Price Surges as a Sign of Profound Loss of Confidence

Arnod Bertrand is cited for his observation that gold prices more than doubling in a reserve currency's context is rare and "almost always a sign of a profound loss of confidence in the existing monetary and political order." This phenomenon is linked to historical transitions of power, including the fall of Rome, Spain's decline, the French Revolution, and the end of Bretton Woods. Bertrand notes that this often acts as both a cause and a sign of these episodes, representing a "transfer of real wealth from the poor to the rich elites who protect themselves with gold." The current episode is described as "weird" due to its "relative silence" despite being a potentially "great pivotal moment in financial history."

The Mission to Save the Middle Class and the Weak Foundation of the Post-2008 Rally

Mike states his mission is to "save the middle class, one investor at a time." He criticizes Ben Bernanke's actions after the 2008 crisis, arguing that he "papered over it, creating a very weak foundation for the rally that happened afterwards," which is described as a "fake rally" built on "weak and shifting sands."

Escalating Risks: Trade Wars, Rare Earths, and Bubble Deflation

The potential for market tops is reiterated, with the "game of chicken" between Trump and Xi being a significant concern. The possibility of China cutting off "rare earth exports" to all countries is raised as a move that could cripple economies worldwide. Trump's response with tariffs is mentioned, but the current environment of daily executive orders upsetting the world economy is seen as unsustainable. The speakers refer to a previous video on the "scale of these bubbles," warning that if they are "pricked now and they start to deflate or implode," it could lead to "one of the greatest crashes in history." This, combined with a potential halt in rare earth exports, could lead to a "modern dark age," as once suggested by Elon Musk. The probability of "something really really bad" is considered, with a significant crash anticipated.

Educational Resources: "Hidden Secrets of Money" and "The Great Gold and Silver Rush"

The discussion highlights specific educational resources:

• "Hidden Secrets of Money" Episodes 9 and 10: These episodes are highly recommended for drawing parallels between the disintegration of the Roman Empire and the potential decline of the American Empire. Episode 10 is particularly emphasized as crucial for wrapping up the series.
• "The Great Gold and Silver Rush of the 21st Century" (Book): This book is suggested as a Christmas gift for those who are hesitant about investing in gold and silver, with future videos promised to demonstrate how "bargain silver still is."
• "Top 10 Reasons I Buy Gold and Silver" (Video): Released eight years ago, this video is considered even more pertinent today, with the scale of economic bubbles having grown significantly. It is recommended as a starting point for new viewers and for sharing with friends and family.

The speakers emphasize that these resources provide "easy ways to sort of lead somebody that's still a doubter, down this path of safety and the best performing asset class of this century." The success of those who invested in gold and silver eight years ago after watching the "Top 10 Reasons" video is noted, having already seen "a double already or more."

Conclusion and Call to Action

The overarching message is one of caution and preparedness. The speakers encourage continuous learning and sharing of information with loved ones. They acknowledge that individual control over global economic events is limited, but personal protection through holding real assets like gold and silver is paramount. The video concludes with thanks to the audience and a reiteration of the value of the presented information, both past and present.