This Always Happens Before Gold EXPLODES

Key Concepts

• Gold Price Explosion Precursors: Two key indicators for predicting a significant rise in gold prices.
• 200-Day Moving Average: A technical indicator used to identify potential support levels for gold prices during corrections.
• Gold vs. S&P 500 Breakout: A crucial signal for a major gold rally, indicating gold's outperformance against the stock market.
• Long-Term Base Formation: A prolonged period of consolidation in the gold vs. S&P 500 chart, suggesting a significant future breakout.
• 60/40 Portfolio: A traditional investment portfolio allocation (60% stocks, 40% bonds) against which gold's performance is often measured.

Two Precursors to the Next Gold Price Explosion

The speaker identifies two critical factors that will precede a significant surge in the gold price. The video was recorded on Monday, November 3rd, 2025, from New Orleans during the New Orleans Investment Conference.

1. Gold Bottoming Around the 200-Day Moving Average

The first precursor is gold finding support and bottoming around its 200-day moving average. This moving average can act as a key support level during a post-breakout correction.

• Specifics: Gold might bottom exactly at the 200-day moving average, slightly above it (e.g., at the 150-day or 170-day moving average), or even dip slightly below it.
• Historical Evidence: The speaker references historical charts showing that gold's first major correction after a breakout typically bottoms around the 200-day moving average.
  • 1970s Example:
    • 1972: Gold bottomed around the 150-day moving average.
    • 1973: Gold dipped below the 200-day moving average.
  • The speaker notes that after these retests of the 200-day moving average, gold prices moved considerably higher.
• Current Situation: Gold is currently in a correction phase, and observing a bottom around the 200-day moving average is the first signal to watch.

2. Gold Breaking Out Against the Stock Market (S&P 500)

The second, and arguably more significant, precursor is gold breaking out against the performance of the stock market, specifically the S&P 500. This signifies gold outperforming equities.

• Historical Examples:
  • Early 1970s: Despite gold being in an "artificial market" until the early '70s, it broke out of a base against the stock market in early 1972, similar to its breakout against the 60/40 portfolio. This led to a substantial rise in gold prices over the subsequent years.
  • Mid to Late 2000s (Global Financial Crisis):
    • Gold against the S&P 500 bottomed and broke out before gold itself broke the $1,000 mark.
    • This breakout led to a dramatic surge in gold's performance relative to the S&P 500, occurring in less than a year and a half.
    • During this period, the gold price itself moved from approximately $700 to $1,200-$1,300 very quickly.
• Recent and Future Outlook:
  • Earlier This Year: Gold broke out against the 60/40 portfolio, which was a significant catalyst.
  • Current Setup: The speaker highlights a much more exciting setup: gold is currently consolidating within a 12-year long base against the stock market. This is described as a "juicy base" setting up for a "huge breakout."
  • Timing: This breakout is not imminent. Gold is currently correcting and pulling back, and this trend is expected to continue for at least a couple more months, possibly four to five months or longer.
  • Projected Timeline: The speaker anticipates this massive breakout against the stock market to occur at some point next year.
  • Consequences of Breakout: This breakout will lead to a "massive move higher in gold." The speaker suggests that the breakout through resistance will set the stage for gold prices to reach not just $5,000, but potentially $6,000, $7,000, and even $8,000.

The 200-Day Moving Average in Context

The speaker revisits the importance of the 200-day moving average, noting its current level and projected trajectory.

• Current Level: The 200-day moving average is currently around $3,340.
• Recent Movement: It has risen by 60 points in the last two weeks, indicating upward momentum.
• Projection:
  • In two weeks, it could reach $3,400.
  • By the end of the year, it is projected to be around $3,600.
• Key Supports: The speaker identifies $3,700 and $3,600 as key support levels for gold.
• Possibility of Undershoot: It's possible gold could dip below these levels and bottom at the 200-day moving average price.

Conclusion and Actionable Insights

The speaker concludes by reiterating the two key signals and providing advice for investors.

• Current Status: It is currently too soon to be a buyer of gold.
• Near-Term Action: Investors should look for gold to come down to strong support and test the 200-day moving average. This will be the first piece of the puzzle.
• Later Signal: The second piece, which will occur later, is gold breaking out of its massive 12-year long base against the stock market.
• Overall Outlook: The combination of these two events will signal the beginning of the next major bull run in gold, with the potential for unprecedented price appreciation.

The speaker thanks attendees of the New Orleans Investment Conference and promises a great update later in the week upon returning home. He encourages viewers to leave comments and engage with the content.