This a 'good sign' for Republicans: Tiana Lowe Doescher

Key Concepts

• Government Shutdown
• Presidential Approval Ratings
• Congressional Blame
• ACA Subsidies
• Fiscal Competency
• "Art of the Deal"
• SNAP Benefits
• Treasury Yields

Government Shutdown and Public Opinion

The transcript discusses the ongoing government shutdown, now in its fourth week, and its impact on public perception of President Trump and Congress. A survey by Rinderknecht IPSO indicates that President Trump's approval rating has risen to 42%, a two-point increase from earlier in the month, despite the shutdown. Conversely, 56% disapprove of his performance.

Regarding blame for the shutdown, the poll reveals that 50% of Americans hold Congressional Republicans responsible, while 43% blame Democrats. A small percentage, 7%, did not answer this question.

Democratic Governors Under Fire

Several Democratic governors, identified as potential 2028 presidential nominees, are facing criticism for utilizing their state websites to attribute the shutdown to Republicans. Notable figures mentioned include Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania), J.B. Pritzker (Illinois), and Gavin Newsom (California). Tiana notes that Josh Shapiro was using SNAP benefits as a talking point, leading to public sentiment that approves of President Trump and blames Republicans for the shutdown more than Democrats.

Shifting Blame and Republican Base

The discussion highlights a shift in blame for the shutdown. Initially, when Chuck Schumer passed bipartisan spending measures, almost all blame was directed at Republicans. However, over time, Democrats have incurred more of the blame. The speaker suggests that while blame should ideally be 100% on Democrats, the trending direction is positive for Republicans. The Republican base appears less concerned, with only one-third of Republicans polled considering the shutdown a "big deal," compared to two-thirds of Democrats who view it as a "crisis."

ACA Subsidies and Fiscal Concerns

A significant point of contention is the extension of Biden-era ACA subsidies, which are described as elevated emergency subsidies for individuals earning up to half a million dollars. This extension, with a price tag of $450 billion, is criticized for being enacted for fewer than 7% of Americans. Tiana argues that this translates to higher interest mortgage rates and contributes to the national deficit, impacting what individuals pay at home.

The transcript also touches upon the fiscal competency of the Trump administration, citing the 10-year Treasury yield falling below 4% as a positive indicator.

"Teflon Don" and Negotiation Tactics

The concept of "Teflon Don," referring to Trump's ability to deflect criticism, is brought up. The speaker suggests that past attempts to label him negatively, such as "Orange Hitler," have backfired because real Americans are benefiting from his policies. The "Art of the Deal" is presented as a framework applicable to negotiations, both with China through tariffs and within Congress.

Impending Deadlines and Democratic Pressure

The ACA subsidies are set to expire on November 1st, and premiums will increase if an agreement is not reached by then. Similarly, SNAP benefits will end on November 1st if a deal is not finalized. The transcript emphasizes that these impacts will disproportionately affect individuals who rely on government benefits, many of whom are likely Democrats. This creates a critical decision-making window for Democrats. The speaker concludes by reiterating that Chuck Schumer is currently the focus of these negotiations.