They are SELLING America

Market Downturn, Tech Stocks & Investment Strategy - A Detailed Summary

Key Concepts:

• Sell America Trade: A market sentiment characterized by widespread selling of US assets.
• Treasury Yields (10-year): A benchmark interest rate influencing mortgage rates and overall economic conditions.
• Bear Trap: A false signal indicating a market downturn, luring investors into a losing position before a price rebound.
• Forward P/E Ratio: A valuation metric comparing a company’s stock price to its expected earnings per share.
• AI Impact on Tech: The current market concern regarding the disruptive potential of Artificial Intelligence on established software companies.
• Valuation vs. Fundamentals: The distinction between a company’s intrinsic value (fundamentals) and its current market price (valuation).

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I. Market Overview & Macroeconomic Factors

The market experienced a significant downturn today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down approximately 700 points, the S&P 500 down over 2%, and the NASDAQ Composite down nearly 600 points. This has triggered a “Sell America” sentiment, reminiscent of the first half of 2023. Contributing to this decline is a sale of $100 million in US Treasury bonds by Danish pensions, citing concerns about US government finances. This action caused a substantial increase in the 10-year Treasury yield, a move considered significant within the Treasury market. The speaker emphasizes the importance of the 10-year yield, noting its direct correlation with mortgage rates and the potential reversal of recent declines in 30-year mortgage rates. The Trump administration’s agenda to unfreeze the housing market in 2026 is also noted as a factor influencing this dynamic.

II. Performance of Specific Assets

• Bitcoin: Bitcoin experienced a decline of 11-12% over the past year, contrasting with the overall positive performance of the stock market. This lack of momentum is highlighted as noteworthy.
• Silver: Silver demonstrated remarkable resilience, increasing by 205% over the past year, outperforming most stocks (with Micron potentially being an exception). The speaker notes the difficulty shorting silver due to consistent price increases.
• Select Stocks Holding Strong: Despite the broader market weakness, certain stocks showed relative strength: Celsius (+4%), VNA, AMD (flirting with green), Estee Lauder, and ELF.
• Tesla Hedge: A 2x inverse ETF against Tesla stock, implemented in Q4 2025, has yielded a 33% return in the past month. This hedge was intended to capitalize on potential Tesla sell-offs during market volatility, even though the overall market decline has been moderate (approximately 5% from all-time highs for the NASDAQ).

III. Public Account Portfolio Review

The speaker’s public investment account has generated substantial returns, with eight active positions having doubled in value or more:

• Google (105%)
• AMD (107%)
• Celsius (131%)
• Revolve (159%)
• SoFi (207%)
• Meta (424%)
• Alpha (1,124%)
• Palanteer (2,205%)

The speaker is currently evaluating which of these stocks he believes has the most upside potential over the next three years.

IV. Underperforming Stocks: Salesforce & Adobe

Salesforce and Adobe have experienced significant year-to-date declines (approximately 17% each), despite strong underlying fundamentals. This is attributed to market concerns surrounding the impact of Artificial Intelligence on the software sector. The speaker views these declines as an opportunity to accumulate shares, anticipating a future rebound. He suggests potential bottom levels of $250 for Adobe and $180 for Salesforce, and is actively buying both stocks weekly.

V. Key Discussion Points & Market Analysis

• Is the Market in Real Trouble? The speaker addresses the question of whether the current market downturn signals a more significant correction. He points to Netflix’s earnings report as an initial indicator.
• Netflix Earnings & Market Reaction: Despite reporting phenomenal earnings (revenue exceeding $12 billion, operating income near $3 billion, EPS of $0.56), Netflix stock experienced a significant decline after hours. This is attributed to concerns surrounding a potential $83 billion acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery, which the speaker views negatively due to the potential for increased debt and business complications.
• Geopolitical Concerns (Greenland): The speaker acknowledges the media attention surrounding the Greenland situation but believes its impact on the stock market will be limited to increased volatility, not a major crash.
• Bear Trap Warning: The speaker cautions against falling into a “bear trap,” where initial bearish sentiment is reversed by a market rebound. He highlights Trump’s history of creating such traps during his previous term.
• Investor Sentiment: The speaker presents data from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showing extreme swings in investor bullishness and bearishness over the past few months, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a balanced investment approach.

VI. Ranking Stocks for Future Upside (Next 3 Years)

1. Meta: Considered the most attractive due to strong revenue growth, earnings, and a currently undervalued price.
2. AMD: Benefiting from the upcoming launch of the 450 series and growth in other business segments.
3. ELF (on a shelf): Resilient performance despite market volatility and potential clarity regarding tariff issues.
4. Celsius: Leveraging the Lonnie deal and Pepsi distribution network for international expansion.
5. Google (McDougall): Undervalued despite its leadership position in AI.
6. SoFi: Benefiting from its integrated financial platform and the potential disruption of traditional financial institutions.
7. Revolve: Strong performance and potential for further growth.
8. Palanteer: While expected to perform well, its high valuation limits upside potential.

VII. Conclusion & Actionable Insights

The speaker emphasizes the importance of long-term investing based on earnings fundamentals, rather than short-term market noise. He advocates for a balanced approach, cautioning against emotional reactions to market volatility. He is actively accumulating shares of Salesforce and Adobe, viewing their current declines as buying opportunities. He also highlights the potential for a market rebound, warning against falling into a bear trap. The speaker encourages viewers to consider joining his private investment group for access to exclusive insights and resources.