These are the key catalysts to watch during the week of September 22, 2025

Key Concepts:

• Tech Earnings (Micron, Jabil, Accenture)
• AI (Artificial Intelligence)
• Federal Reserve (Fed) Speakers and Policy
• PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) Index
• Trade and Tariffs (Section 301 tariffs, IIPA case)
• Oracle and AI Compute
• Geopolitical Risk

1. Tech Earnings as a Market Catalyst

• Adam Crisafulli believes tech earnings will be the most important catalyst for the market in the coming week.
• Specifically, he highlights Micron (reporting Tuesday night), Jabil, and Accenture as key companies to watch.
• The market's recent "breathtaking melt up move" in tech, largely driven by AI enthusiasm, makes these earnings particularly significant.

2. AI's Impact on Different Companies

• Micron and Jabil are seen as companies that benefit significantly from the AI trend and its momentum.
• Accenture is viewed as potentially facing "existential risk" from AI adoption, offering a contrasting perspective.
• This provides an interesting spectrum of how AI is affecting different types of companies.

3. The Role of the Federal Reserve and Economic Data

• While the Fed and economic data receive considerable attention, Crisafulli argues that the market's focus is primarily on the tech sector and AI.
• He acknowledges the importance of the PCE index (the Fed's preferred inflation reading) and Fed speakers.
• However, he suggests that the market already has a decent sense of August's data and is now focusing on September readings.
• The "distribution of the dots" on the Fed's Wednesday supplemental indicates a lack of unanimity within the Fed.

4. Trade and Tariffs: The IIPA Case

• The market seems to have moved on from trade concerns, with companies adjusting to existing tariff policies.
• The upcoming Supreme Court oral hearings in the tariff case (IIPA case) in early November will be a significant catalyst.
• There's no consensus on whether eliminating tariffs would be good or bad for the market.
• Striking down tariffs could put upward pressure on yields due to lost revenue and create uncertainty.
• The White House is expected to find new justifications to keep tariffs in place if the current ones are eliminated.

5. Oracle's Move and AI Compute

• Oracle's significant move after reporting guidance has been sustained.
• The move reflects the "unbelievable momentum" in AI.
• OpenAI is reportedly spending $450 billion over the next five years on compute, which benefits Oracle.
• Oracle's RPO (remaining performance obligation) boost was largely driven by OpenAI.
• Oracle could be striking a deal with Meta for a $20 billion compute contract.
• Oracle has become one of the most prominent names in the AI industry, driving its shares higher.

6. Geopolitical Risk

• Geopolitical risk has "fallen down the list" of market concerns.
• Events in the Middle East and Ukraine do not seem to be significantly impacting market sentiment.
• There isn't enormous risk around oil supply, which usually transmits Middle Eastern events to equity markets.
• Rumblings in Washington and Brussels about incremental sanctions on Russia and buyers of Russian energy have not had a major impact.

7. Notable Quotes

• "This market has been all about this amazing breathtaking melt up move that we've seen in tech, driven in large part by AI." - Adam Crisafulli
• "...Accenture...a company that is thought to be potentially at existential risk from AI adoption..." - Adam Crisafulli

8. Technical Terms and Concepts

• PCE Index: Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
• RPO (Remaining Performance Obligation): A metric used by companies like Oracle to represent the amount of contracted revenue that has not yet been recognized.
• IIPA Case: Refers to a legal case related to the International Intellectual Property Alliance, likely involving challenges to Section 301 tariffs.

9. Logical Connections

• The discussion of tech earnings leads into the broader theme of AI's impact on the market.
• The mention of Oracle's move connects to the discussion of AI compute and OpenAI's spending.
• The section on trade and tariffs provides a contrasting perspective to the focus on AI, highlighting other potential market catalysts.

10. Synthesis/Conclusion

The main takeaways are that tech earnings, particularly those of companies levered to AI, are the most important catalyst for the market in the coming week. While the Fed and economic data remain relevant, the market's focus is primarily on the AI-driven tech sector. Trade and geopolitical risks are currently less of a concern, but the upcoming Supreme Court hearing on tariffs and potential shifts in geopolitical dynamics could become more significant catalysts later on. Oracle's success is a prime example of the market's enthusiasm for AI and its potential impact on various industries.