The US v Iran: What does war look like? | The Security Brief

Key Concepts

Iron Dome: Israel’s multi-tiered air defense system (Tamil, David’s Sling, Arrow).
COAs (Courses of Action): Potential military strategies, ranging from defensive to offensive, including targeted leadership elimination and strikes on nuclear facilities.
Home Basing: Utilizing airbases in allied countries for sustained air operations, avoiding the need for carrier-based operations for all missions.
SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses): Tactics to neutralize enemy air defense systems before offensive operations.
HALO/HAHO (High Altitude Low Opening/High Altitude High Opening): Special operations insertion techniques involving high-altitude parachute jumps.
FOB (Forward Operating Base): A temporary, secure base established closer to the target area to reduce transit times and increase operational efficiency.
MANPADS (Man-Portable Air Defense Systems): Shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles, posing a significant threat to low-flying aircraft.
Electronic Warfare: Utilizing the electromagnetic spectrum to disrupt enemy communications and radar systems.

Defensive Posture & Israel’s Air Defense Capabilities

The current situation involves a ten-day period of heightened tension with the US demonstrating readiness for potential operations inside Iran. A key consideration preventing immediate action is ensuring Israel’s ability to withstand a potential Iranian counter-response. This centers around Israel’s air defense system, commonly referred to as “Iron Dome,” which is actually a three-tiered system.

Iron Dome (Red Circle - Tel Aviv): Targets rockets and missiles within a range of 3-40 km using the Tamil missile system.
David’s Sling (Blue): Protects against short-range ballistic missiles up to 300 km.
Arrow System (Yellow - Arrow 2 & 3): Designed for high-speed, high-altitude ballistic missiles, with Arrow 3 capable of intercepting threats even in space.

Effectively operating this system requires substantial missile stockpiles – approximately 6-800 missiles for the Iron Dome alone to withstand a single barrage. The US is deploying additional missile batteries, potentially THAAD or Patriot systems, to supplement Israel’s defenses.

Offensive Planning & Intelligence Requirements

Offensive operations hinge on comprehensive intelligence gathering across three key areas:

Human Intelligence (HUMINT): Gathering information from sources on the ground.
Imagery Intelligence (IMINT): Analyzing satellite and aerial imagery.
Electronic Intelligence (ELINT): Intercepting and analyzing electronic signals.

The amount of intelligence required for successful offensive strikes is significant.

US Military Assets & Deployment

The US has repositioned substantial military assets to the region, notably the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, redeployed from the Indo-Pacific. While smaller than the USS Gerald R. Ford, the Abraham Lincoln still possesses significant firepower:

Personnel: 5,000+ personnel.
Mission Capacity: Capable of launching up to 160 missions within a 24-hour period.
Nuclear Power: Can operate for up to 20 years without refueling.

Aircraft carriers offer strategic flexibility, allowing operations in international waters without requiring permission to use foreign airbases ("home basing"). However, they are vulnerable and require robust protection.

Carrier Strike Group Defense

Protecting an aircraft carrier involves a layered defense system:

F/A-18 Growler: Suppresses enemy air defenses by targeting radar systems and jamming communications.
F/A-18 Super Hornet: Provides combat air patrol and precision-guided bombing capabilities.
F-35C: Utilizes sensor platforms to locate and track mobile air defense systems (like S300s) and relay coordinates for accurate strikes.
Cruisers: Equipped with SM2, SM6, and SM3 missiles to counter ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, aircraft, and drones.
Close-In Weapon System (CIWS - Phalanx): A Gatling gun firing 4,500 rounds per minute, effective against close-range threats (1-2 km).
Submarines: Provide underwater defense against enemy submarines.

Current intelligence suggests the carrier strike group is positioned near the southern end of Oman to avoid direct Iranian observation, though Iran is attempting to gather intelligence using long-range surveillance drones.

Home Basing & Regional Support

Beyond the carrier, the US relies on “home basing” – utilizing airbases in allied countries for sustained operations. Key locations include:

United Kingdom (RAF Mildenhall & RAF Lakenheath): Hosting KC-135 tankers and F-15s, now forward-deployed to Jordan.
Portugal (Lis Field, Azores): Serving as a transit point for F-35s from Venezuela.
Germany (Ramstein Air Base): Hosting the EA-37B “Compass Call” aircraft, designed for electronic warfare operations against Iranian capabilities.
Jordan (Muafak Salti Air Base): Receiving a significant buildup of F-15s.
Qatar (Al Udeid Air Base): The largest US military base in the Middle East, housing 10,000 troops, KC-135/46 tankers, and RC-135 “Rivet Joint” electronic intelligence aircraft.
Bahrain (Naval Support Activity): Home to the US Navy Fifth Fleet headquarters, responsible for operations in the Persian Gulf and surrounding areas.

Potential Courses of Action (COAs)

Several potential courses of action are being considered:

Targeted Leadership Elimination (Most Dangerous COA): Capture or kill of Iran’s Supreme Leader and high-ranking officials within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This would likely involve a heli-borne assault force (HALO/HAHO operations) utilizing the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment ("Nightstalkers") and potentially special forces from allied nations (Israel, UK, Germany). The 640km distance from potential staging areas to targets necessitates a complex operation involving SEAD and potentially a forward operating base (FOB) established mid-route.
Strikes on Nuclear Facilities: Targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities at Natanz and Isvahan, potentially mirroring the operation against Venezuela. This would also require significant SEAD to neutralize air defenses.
Combination of Both: A coordinated approach targeting both leadership and nuclear infrastructure.

Regardless of the chosen COA, significant SEAD operations will be crucial, utilizing F-18 Growlers and F-35s to suppress Iranian air defenses.

Preparation & Standby

Planning for such operations is a multi-year process, involving extensive training in night operations, threat identification, and self-defense techniques. Once deployed, personnel enter a period of prolonged standby, adapting to the operational environment (e.g., extreme heat, limited visibility) and continuously refining plans based on evolving intelligence. This includes studying potential routes, identifying contingencies, and preparing for rapid replanning if necessary.

Conclusion

The situation remains highly volatile, with the US demonstrating a clear readiness for potential military action against Iran. The deployment of significant military assets, coupled with the complex planning involved in various courses of action, underscores the seriousness of the situation. The success of any operation hinges on comprehensive intelligence gathering, robust air defense capabilities, and the ability to adapt to a dynamic and challenging environment. The key trigger mechanisms appear to be Israel’s defensive capabilities and the ongoing intelligence gathering efforts.