The US says the Venezuelan government is a terrorist network. Here's what that means

Key Concepts

• Maduro's Gambit: Nicolás Maduro's strategy to delay leaving power, even after electoral defeat.
• US Pressure on Venezuela: The United States' objective to pressure the Venezuelan regime for Maduro's departure.
• US Military Presence in the Caribbean: The deployment of US military assets, such as the USS Gerald Ford strike group and Marines conducting drills, near Venezuela.
• Counter-Narcotics Operations: Strategies involving judicializing cases and targeting criminal organizations and their finances.
• Kinetic Options: Military actions or force as a potential means to achieve political objectives.
• Reinstitutionalization of Venezuela: The complex process of rebuilding and reforming Venezuelan state institutions after years of alleged mismanagement and corruption.
• Illegal Armed Groups in Venezuela: The presence of Colombian Marxist terrorist organizations (FARC, ELN), Hezbollah, collectivos, and Naragua within Venezuela.
• María Corina Machado: A key opposition leader in Venezuela, currently in hiding, who won a primary with over 90% of the vote.
• Edmundo González: The opposition candidate who ran for president in place of María Corina Machado when she was barred from running.
• Transition to Democratic Governance: The challenge of establishing a democratic system in Venezuela after a prolonged period of authoritarian rule.
• Regional Support: The necessity of support from neighboring countries and the United States for Venezuela's transition.

US-Venezuela Diplomatic Standoff

The discussion highlights a significant divergence in objectives between the leaders of the United States and Venezuela. Ambassador Jimmy Story states that Nicolás Maduro's consistent strategy is to "kick the can down the road" and avoid relinquishing power, even after losing the previous year's election. In contrast, the US President's position is to exert "additional pressure on the Venezuelan regime on Maduro" and to "seek his departure." This creates a "pretty big gulf" between their aims, with the US desiring Maduro's exit and Maduro seeking to remain in power for as long as possible.

US Military Posturing in the Caribbean

The transcript addresses the US's increased military activity in the Caribbean, specifically mentioning the USS Gerald Ford strike group positioned near the Venezuelan coast and US Marines conducting drills in Trinidad and Tobago, which is geographically very close to Venezuela. Ambassador Story clarifies that this military presence is not primarily for counter-narcotics operations. He contrasts this with his past experience in counter-narcotics, which involved "judicializ[ing] the cases" and working with regional partners to target criminal organizations and their illicit finances in places like Miami and Medellín. He cites the example of former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández being jailed in the US for narcotics trafficking as a result of such collaborative efforts. Instead, Ambassador Story asserts that the current "firepower that we have in the Caribbean is entirely not fit to task for a counter narcotics operation, but rather for engagement with a state actor. That state actor being in this case Venezuela." He concludes that the President's earlier statement of "all options are on the table" has now translated into placing "kinetic options right at the front doorstep of Nicholas Maduro."

Implications of Maduro's Removal and Colombian President Petro's Stance

The conversation explores the potential consequences of removing Maduro from power, particularly in light of Colombian President Gustavo Petro's critical stance. Ambassador Story suggests that removing Maduro militarily would be the "easy part," as the Venezuelan military is described as a "shell of what it used to be" with no capacity to counter a US attack. He notes that "there's certainly not one pilot in their air force willing to enter a SEO and go against an F-35."

However, the "much harder part" is identified as "reinstitutionalizing a country that has been systematically beggared for 25 years." The ambassador explains that Venezuelan state institutions are currently "completely 100% focused on the support of one small group of people," a "criminal group masquerading as a government." Rebuilding these institutions, which have been made "subservient" to the ruling elite, will require "time and effort" and will not be a "linear progression."

Furthermore, the presence of "illegal armed groups such as the FARC and Yellen," described as "Marxist foreign terrorist organizations from Colombia," along with "elements of Hezbollah, the collectivos... and also the Naragua," poses a significant challenge. Ambassador Story argues that the Venezuelan military, in some capacity, would be needed to address this "level of criminality, illegality, and and and and terrorist organizations."

Regarding President Petro's position, who has stated he would not assist in a US ground invasion and would stop sharing intelligence, Ambassador Story believes this is a political calculation by Petro to gain favor domestically. He suggests that without Petro's support, the border area will become "extraordinarily unstable" as FARC and ELN elements can move freely across the border to evade persecution.

The Role of María Corina Machado and the Transition to Democracy

The discussion turns to María Corina Machado, described as a key rival to Maduro and currently in hiding within Venezuela. Ambassador Story clarifies that she is not in exile but "hiding from a dictatorial regime." He emphasizes her strong support, having won a primary election with "over 90% of the vote," making her the "head of that opposition." He notes that Edmundo González ran in her stead when the Maduro regime prevented her from running for president.

The central question raised is the extent to which Machado, González, and others can rely on the Venezuelan state for a transition to democratic governance. Ambassador Story expresses concern that the state, after 25 years of subservience to "Chavista ideology," no longer operates neutrally, and decisions are dictated by the "ruling click." He believes that achieving a democratic transition will be "difficult" and will require "support of others," including the region and the United States. He also contrasts President Petro's approach with that of Brazilian President Lula, suggesting Lula "can play this much better from Brazil."

Conclusion

The interview with Ambassador Jimmy Story underscores the complex and multifaceted challenges facing Venezuela. The US aims for Maduro's removal, but the post-Maduro landscape presents significant hurdles. These include the immense task of rebuilding state institutions, addressing the pervasive presence of illegal armed and terrorist groups, and navigating the political dynamics within Venezuela and the broader region. While the removal of Maduro might be militarily feasible, the subsequent process of establishing stable, democratic governance is presented as a far more arduous undertaking, requiring sustained regional and international support.