The US's two options if Russia objects to the peace negotiations | DW News

Key Concepts

• 28-Point Peace Plan: An initial peace proposal for the Ukraine war, criticized for aligning too closely with Russian war aims.
• Revised Peace Plan: A modified version of the 28-point plan, tentatively backed by Ukraine after revisions.
• Kremlin: The seat of the Russian government, representing the Russian leadership's stance.
• Donbas Region: Eastern Ukraine, a key area of contention and a demand for Ukrainian withdrawal by Russia.
• Capitulation: The act of surrendering or yielding to demands.
• Sovereignty: The supreme authority within a territory, referring to Ukraine's right to self-governance.
• Soviet Succession Wars: A term used to describe conflicts arising from the dissolution of the Soviet Union, where Russia seeks to maintain influence over former Soviet republics.
• Frozen Assets: Assets belonging to a country or entity that are blocked or frozen by another country or international body.
• Joint Military Production: Collaborative efforts between countries to manufacture military equipment and ammunition.
• Red Lines: Non-negotiable principles or demands that a party will not compromise on.
• NATO Charter: The foundational document of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, outlining its principles and objectives.
• Midterm Elections: Elections held in the middle of a president's term, which can impact the political landscape.
• Secondary Sanctions: Sanctions imposed by one country on entities or individuals in third countries that engage in transactions with a sanctioned country.

Summary of Discussions on Ukraine War Peace Talks

This summary details discussions surrounding a high-level meeting at the Kremlin between a US delegation, including Special Envoy Steve Witkov and Jared Kushner, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, aimed at advancing peace in Ukraine. The talks focused on a revised 28-point peace plan, initially criticized for favoring Russian war objectives.

1. The Revised Peace Plan and Initial Reactions

• US Delegation's Role: Steve Witkov and Jared Kushner presented a revised version of a 28-point peace plan. This revision was prompted by Ukraine's request, as the original plan was deemed too aligned with Russian war goals.
• Ukraine's Tentative Support: Ukraine has tentatively backed the new draft of the peace plan following the requested revisions.
• Kremlin's Assessment: The Kremlin described the talks as "useful" but stated that no compromise was reached on territorial issues.
• Putin's Stance on European Demands: President Putin rejected what he characterized as European demands, warning European leaders that Russia was prepared for war if that was their desire. He accused them of being "on the side of the war" and attempting to "completely block the entire peace process" by presenting "unacceptable" demands to Russia, with the intention of blaming Russia for any collapse.

2. Ukrainian Perspective on the Talks

• Need for Results: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized the need for tangible results from the Moscow talks, stating, "There is a lot of dialogue, but we need results. Our people die every day." He expressed readiness to meet with President Trump, contingent on the outcome of the day's discussions.
• Unacceptability of Russian Conditions: Professor Mikail Alexv, an expert on Russia and Ukraine, echoed Zelenskyy's sentiment, stating that Russian demands for territorial gains and subjugation of Ukraine are "completely unacceptable." He believes Ukrainians will continue to fight rather than live under Russian rule or a puppet regime.

3. Analysis of US Motivations and Strategies

• Witkov's Approach: John Hardy, Deputy Director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, suggested that if Witkov is leading the US approach, the strategy might involve pressuring Ukraine to capitulate to Russia as a swift path to a deal.
• Rubio's Perspective: In contrast, Secretary Rubio is seen as understanding that Russia needs to face pressure to make compromises.
• US Leverage Limitations: Hardy noted that the White House lacks the leverage to force Zelenskyy to capitulate on key issues like territory and sovereignty, emphasizing that Ukrainian buy-in is crucial.
• Trump's Strategy: Professor Alexv posited that Trump's strategy involves enticing Putin with positive incentives like reopening business, new deals, and sanctions removal, while simultaneously pressuring Ukraine. However, he doubts this strategy will succeed given the deep disagreements.
• US Options: Alexv outlined two primary US options:
  1. Withdrawal: Reducing the US role, though this could make Trump appear weak.
  2. Increased Pressure: Returning to a strategy of pressuring Moscow, potentially through increased sanctions and military support for Ukraine, aligning with Secretary Rubio's view.
• Business Interests: Oria Lutvich, Deputy Director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at Chatham House, suggested that beyond a Nobel Peace Prize, Trump's motivations might include furthering American business interests, particularly in energy and trade with Russia, and leveraging past dealings of Jared Kushner and Witkov's son with Russia. She also highlighted Trump's desire to demonstrate peacemaking ability for pre-electoral campaigns.

4. Russian Objectives and Tactics

• Territorial Demands: The Kremlin's core demand, as highlighted by Hardy, is Ukrainian withdrawal from the Donbas region.
• Structured Diplomatic Process: A potential win for Moscow, according to Hardy, would be channeling the talks into a structured diplomatic process with working groups, steering towards their preferred outcome.
• Splitting US and Europe: Putin's rhetoric about European leaders being "on the side of war" is seen as an attempt to divide the United States from its European allies and negotiate over their heads.
• Bluff and Blackmail: Putin's statements are also interpreted as a tactic to bluff and blackmail Europe into withdrawing support for Ukraine, similar to past threats of "consequences never before seen."
• Illegitimacy of Zelenskyy: Putin's recent public statements in Bishkek, calling President Zelenskyy illegitimate, suggest a belief that a deal is not possible with a non-legitimate partner in Kyiv.
• Marginal Battlefield Successes: Russia's claims of territorial gains, such as the capture of Pokrovsk, are seen as emboldening Putin's hopes of achieving goals militarily if Ukraine does not concede. However, it's noted that Russia has only occupied about 1% additional Ukrainian territory throughout 2025.

5. The Risk of a "Never-Ending War" and Future Conflicts

• Continuation War: John Hardy described the current conflict as a continuation of the 2014-2015 war and a "generational struggle" over Ukraine's independence from Moscow.
• Likelihood of Future Wars: Hardy expressed a strong likelihood of a "third war" regardless of how the current conflict ends, emphasizing that these are "wars of Soviet succession."
• Deterrence and Defense: He stressed the importance of Western partners helping Ukraine become a "steel occupying" force to deter or defeat future Russian reinvasions.

6. European Role and Capabilities

• Difficult but Not Impossible: Hardy suggested it would be "extremely difficult" for Europe to step up and resolve the conflict independently if the US withdraws, but "not impossible."
• Ukrainian Military Development: Developments in Ukraine, including increased use of Ukrainian-produced military capabilities and longer-range weapons, are noted.
• Signaling Cost to Russia: Europe can help signal to Russia that the ongoing war is costly.
• Coalition and Collective Decision: Ukraine cannot resolve the conflict alone; a coalition and collective decision-making are necessary.
• Frozen Assets and Joint Production: Key potential European actions include:
  • Utilizing frozen Russian assets in Europe to signal that Russia will bear further costs.
  • Stepping up efforts for joint military production with Ukraine.

7. US-Europe Relations and Potential Dangers

• "Waking Up to a Different America": Lutvich stated that Europe is "waking up to a different America" under Trump, where US disengagement from European security is a possibility, potentially endangering future security and emboldening Russia.
• Endangering Ukrainian and European Interests: There is a danger that business deals with Putin's Russia could override Ukrainian and European interests.
• Dangerous Propositions: Propositions like changing the NATO charter upon Russia's request or deciding on the size of Ukraine's armed forces are seen as dangerous.

8. Potential US Actions if Talks Fail

• Game of Who Will Upset Trump First: Lutvich described the high-intensity diplomacy as a game where both Kyiv and Moscow try to appease Trump.
• Worst-Case Scenarios: If Witkov and Kushner return with nothing, the US could:
  • Discontinue intelligence support to Ukraine.
  • Impose secondary sanctions on countries purchasing Russian oil.
• Ukraine-European Alliance's Chance: The Ukraine-European alliance has a chance to convince Trump that peace can only be achieved through force with Putin, and they are prepared to commit resources to back Ukraine militarily and strengthen its negotiating position.

9. Key Arguments and Perspectives

• Putin's Goal: To divide the US and Europe, negotiate over their heads, and blame Russia for any peace process failure.
• Ukraine's Position: Unwillingness to cede territory or sovereignty, demanding tangible results from negotiations.
• US Dilemma: Balancing pressure on Russia with the need for Ukrainian consent, and the potential impact of Trump's personal agenda.
• European Challenge: The difficulty of stepping up to resolve the conflict independently if US support wanes, but the necessity of doing so.
• Long-Term Conflict: The conflict is viewed as a protracted struggle rooted in the post-Soviet era, with a high likelihood of future conflicts.

10. Synthesis and Conclusion

The discussions highlight a critical juncture in the Ukraine war, with a US delegation attempting to broker a peace deal under President Trump's directive. While Ukraine has tentatively accepted a revised peace plan, Russia's core demands regarding territory remain a significant obstacle. President Putin's rhetoric suggests a willingness to continue the war and a strategic effort to divide Western allies. Experts express skepticism about immediate breakthroughs, emphasizing the deep-seated nature of the conflict and the potential for prolonged instability. The US faces a strategic choice between pressuring Russia or potentially withdrawing support, with significant implications for Ukraine and European security. Europe is urged to consider strengthening its own defense capabilities and collective action, including the use of frozen Russian assets and joint military production, to counter Russian aggression and bolster Ukraine's negotiating position. The overarching sentiment is that while a peace deal is desirable, it is unlikely to be achieved easily, and the conflict's roots suggest a long-term struggle for Ukrainian sovereignty.