The US is losing the Pacific to China: Trump's trip to Asia proves it

Key Concepts

• US-China Peer Status: The perception and projection of China as an equal to the United States on the global stage.
• Rare Earth Minerals: Crucial elements for modern electronics and military applications, with China holding a dominant position in processing.
• Trade War Truce: A temporary cessation of hostilities in the economic conflict between the US and China.
• Geopolitical Competition: The ongoing rivalry between the US and China for influence and dominance, particularly in the Indo-Pacific.
• Liberal International Order: The existing global system of governance, largely shaped by Western democracies, which China seeks to transform.
• Global South: Developing nations, which China aims to court and lead to reshape the international order.
• US Alliance System: The network of bilateral alliances the US has historically maintained in the Indo-Pacific.
• "America First" vs. Global Leadership: The tension between Donald Trump's isolationist tendencies and the traditional US role as a global power.

Donald Trump's Asia Trip and US-China Relations

This segment analyzes the significance of Donald Trump's recent trip to Eastern Asia, focusing on his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and the implications for US-China relations and the broader geopolitical landscape.

Trump's Asia Tour: Spectacle and Substance

• High-Profile Engagements: Trump's trip included presiding over a Thailand-Cambodia peace deal signing in Malaysia, receiving a lavish welcome in Japan (Tokyo Tower lit in US colors, 250 cherry trees), and a military band performance and gifts in South Korea.
• Meeting with Xi Jinping: The meeting with Xi Jinping was described by Trump as "hugely successful," rating it a "12 out of 10."
• Expert Assessments of the Meeting:
  • Ben Bland rated it a 7 for China, 2 for America, and 4 for the rest of the world.
  • Steve Sang suggested 7 for China, as they gained much without significant cost. He gave it 5 for the US, arguing Trump's high rating emboldens Xi Jinping. Sang himself would give it an 8, adopting a "Xi Jinping approach" of viewing it as another gift from Trump.
• Visuals and Optics: The handshake, lasting nearly a minute, with Xi appearing stoic and Trump making amiable comments, projected an image of the US president being eager to please the Chinese leader, while Xi maintained a professional demeanor. This visual narrative, according to experts, presented the US as a "supplicant," reinforcing China's desired image of a "G2" world where China is a peer to the US.
• Chinese Leadership's Concerns: Senior Chinese officials were reportedly nervous about Xi Jinping being caught off guard or embarrassed, given the careful staging of his public appearances. The outcome was seen as favorable for China, avoiding any embarrassing moments for Xi.
• Xi's Perception of Trump: While Trump expressed admiration for Xi, Xi did not reciprocate the warmth. He views Trump as someone to be handled carefully to achieve Chinese objectives. China strategically held back the "Xi card" until confident of significant US concessions.
• Time Horizon Disconnect: Trump's focus is on short-term gains (next hour, next news cycle), while China and other nations adopt a long-term perspective, understanding Trump's unpredictability as a tactic but not the sole determinant of the US-China competition. China aims for short-term advantages from personal politics but recognizes the long-term competition is not defined by Trump's personality.

Rare Earth and Critical Mineral Deals

• The Rare Earth Agreement: China agreed to delay its most recent export restrictions on rare earths by a year and roll back earlier ones.
• Significance of the Deal: This delay was seen as a negotiating lever for Xi Jinping, not necessarily a long-term commitment. China's objective is to use this year to upskill its capacity in advanced chip production and reduce its dependence on the US for critical technologies.
• US and Allied Capacity: The effectiveness of this deal for the US and its allies hinges on their ability to develop their own rare earth refining capacity within the next 12 months, a challenge given potential alienation of partners and the current US administration's functioning.
• China's Strategic Bet: Beijing's bet is that this agreement is advantageous, allowing them to emerge stronger while Trump presents it as a win.
• Broader Rare Earth Landscape: China produces over 90% of the world's processed rare earth minerals. The processing requires significant investment and tolerance for pollution. These minerals are crucial for both consumer electronics and military supply chains.
• Impact on Alternatives: The temporary relief from supply disruptions is acknowledged, but the "topsy-turvy" relationship with China on rare earth access hinders long-term collaboration and investment in alternative sources by other countries. Allies may be less inclined to commit to alternatives if they perceive the US as capable of cutting its own deals with China.

The Trade War: A Truce, Not an End

• Nature of the Agreement: The agreements reached, including those on fentanyl precursors and soybeans, are characterized as a "truce," not an end to the trade war.
• Unreliability of Leaders: Both Trump and Xi are seen as leaders who can change their minds, making adherence to agreements uncertain.
• Future Negotiations: The possibility of a formal agreement in April when Trump visits Beijing remains open, but China prefers Trump to visit Beijing to control the environment and narrative.
• Trump's Psyche and Tariffs: Trump's interest in tariffs and trade wars is deeply ingrained. His fickle personality and tendency to be influenced by the last person he spoke to, combined with his use of unpredictability as a negotiation tactic, suggest the trade war could easily reignite.
• Trump's Worldview on China: Trump views China primarily as an economic challenge and potential opportunity, rather than an existential strategic competitor, which could allow China to leverage his desire for a "deal."

Taiwan's Absence from the Talks

• Reasons for Omission: Taiwan was not discussed due to China's desire to avoid embarrassment and Trump's potential for incautious remarks. The US, through Secretary of State Marco Rubio, also signaled a preference to keep Taiwan off the agenda during pre-meetings.
• Risk Assessment: Raising Taiwan was deemed too high-risk for both sides, as it could lead to tense conversations that would make it difficult for Trump to claim victory to his domestic audience. The focus was on achieving agreements with less risk.

Broader Asian Engagements and US Reliability

• US Presence in Asia: Trump's attendance at the ASEAN summit in Malaysia was seen as positive, as US presidents have sometimes skipped these crucial regional meetings.
• Thailand-Cambodia Peace Deal: Trump played a marginal but positive role in de-escalating clashes between Thailand and Cambodia.
• Allied Concerns: Japan and South Korea, key US allies, expressed concerns about abandonment and Trump's isolationist tendencies. They were glad for constructive conversations but worried about Trump's unpredictability and the realism of large investment pledges to the US.
• "Beggar Thy Neighbor" Dynamic: The focus on governments pumping taxpayer money to benefit the US, rather than their own citizens, creates a "beggar thy neighbor" dynamic, undermining win-win cooperation.
• Lack of Substantial Change: Despite Trump's engagements, the overall impact on strengthening relationships with key Asia-Pacific allies is questioned. The focus was on "not blowing things up" rather than substantial progress.

The Shifting Geopolitical Landscape and China's Global Ambitions

This section delves into the evolving security architecture in the Indo-Pacific, the nature of the threat China poses, and the implications for the Western liberal order.

The US-Led Security Architecture and the "External Enemy"

• Traditional Hub-and-Spoke System: The Indo-Pacific security order was historically dominated by a US-led hub-and-spoke system of bilateral alliances, established to counter communist influence.
• Need for an External Enemy: The US, as a superpower with a "messianic nation" approach to geopolitics, historically relies on an external enemy to rally its society and economy.
• Lack of a Comparable Rival to Communism: Unlike the Cold War, China does not present the same kind of global ideological challenge or internal threat of subversion. While a significant economic and military competitor, it doesn't pose an existential threat to the US homeland in the same way the Soviet Union did.
• Public Willingness to Pay: The lack of a clear, comparable threat raises questions about the US public's willingness to bear the costs of decoupling and military expansion for a multi-spectrum competition with China.

The Pivot to China and Regional Perceptions

• US Policy Shift: The "pivot to Asia" is re-characterized as a "pivot to China," focused on preempting China's challenge to US hegemony.
• Regional Ambivalence: Countries in the Asia-Pacific are hesitant to be drawn into a US-China competition that doesn't directly benefit or protect them, unlike the Cold War era where US protection against communism was a clear benefit.
• Desire for Stability: Most East Asian countries prioritize stability and economic growth, seeking American support and security guarantees that enable this, rather than being forced into an adversarial relationship with China.
• Lack of Reassurance: Statements from US officials about defending interests and maintaining the balance of power are not reassuring to regional allies, especially when coupled with an "America First" approach that prioritizes US interests over allies'.
• What Reassurance Looks Like: Allies need concrete assurances that the US will stand by them "thick or thin." This includes compensation for negative consequences from China (e.g., for engaging in rare earth deals), support for economic development to reduce dependency on China, and a clear commitment to supporting allies facing Chinese reprisals.

The Role of Middle Powers and Self-Reliance

• Shifting Responsibility: Allies should not solely rely on US reassurance but should also take greater responsibility for their own security.
• Thickening Relationships: Middle powers (Japan, Korea, Australia, UK, France, Germany) need to strengthen their relationships with each other, bypassing the US as the sole intermediary.
• Increased Defense Spending: These nations need to invest more in their own defense.

China's Global Vision and Threat to the Western Way of Life

• Beyond Traditional Military Threat: While a direct military threat to Europe is less immediate than Russia, China poses a threat to the Western way of life through espionage, suppression of dissent (e.g., Xinjiang research), and its global ambitions.
• China's Global Ambition: Xi Jinping's vision is not regional hegemony but the "democratization of international relations" and a "common destiny for humankind."
• Pivot to the Global South: China's foreign policy prioritizes winning support from the Global South, aiming to transform the Western-dominated liberal international order into one that prioritizes the interests of the Global South, as represented by China.
• Autocracy-Friendly Order: This new order would be more comfortable for autocrats and less so for democracies and human rights advocates.
• Threat to Liberal Values: The challenge from China is framed as a threat to liberal values rather than solely to democracies, as some illiberal democracies may be comfortable with Chinese leadership.
• UK Policy Debate: The debate in the UK on China policy is criticized for being driven by specific incidents (embassy construction, espionage cases) rather than a long-term strategy.
• Cooperation Among Like-Minded Nations: The UK and other like-minded democracies (France, Germany, EU, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada) need to cooperate more closely on managing both the US and China.
• Engaging the Global South: Reaching out to developing countries, acknowledging their concerns about a Western-centric world order, and offering to share power is crucial to prevent them from aligning with China.
• A Changing World: The current global landscape is characterized by dramatic change, creating both challenges and opportunities for countries to shape their own futures.

Conclusion

The analysis concludes that Donald Trump's Asia trip, while visually impressive, yielded limited substantive gains for the US, particularly in countering China's growing influence. The rare earth deal offers a temporary reprieve but highlights China's strategic advantage. The US faces a significant challenge in projecting reliability and commitment to its allies, while China, with its long-term vision and focus on reshaping the international order, is increasingly seen as a predictable partner by many nations, even if its methods are not always palatable. The West must adapt to this changing world by strengthening alliances among middle powers, investing in their own defense, and actively engaging with the Global South to counter China's growing influence and protect liberal values.