The Trump-backed plan appears to be stuck in phase two | DW News

Key Concepts

• Ceasefire Breaches: Violations of the ceasefire agreement by both Israeli forces and Hamas militants.
• Hamas Denials: Hamas's rejection of accusations of initiating hostilities and its claims of Israeli violations of humanitarian law.
• Displacement and Humanitarian Crisis: The widespread displacement of Gazans, living in crowded tent camps, facing harsh conditions due to weather and lack of resources.
• Fragile Ceasefire: The precarious nature of the truce, susceptible to renewed violence.
• UN Security Council Resolution 2803: A resolution endorsing the creation of an international stabilization force for Gaza.
• International Stabilization Force: A proposed force to help stabilize Gaza, with its mandate and composition still under discussion.
• Palestinian Technocratic Government: A proposed governing body for Gaza as part of the second phase of a peace plan.
• Palestinian Police Force: A planned security force for Gaza.
• Hamas's Stance on Governance: Hamas's desire to retain control over borders and influence without direct day-to-day governance, similar to the Hezbollah model.
• EU's Role in Gaza: European Union's discussions on reconstructing Gaza, reforming the Palestinian Authority, and training Palestinian police officers.
• Palestinian Authority (PA) Reforms: Donor conference focus on PA reforms, including textbook content and stipends for prisoners.
• Israeli Concerns: Israeli demands for PA reforms, including changes to textbooks and cessation of stipends for prisoners.
• Hamas Disarmament: The central issue of Hamas relinquishing its weapons, which is unlikely in the short term.
• Security Vacuum: The potential gap between the proposed stabilization force and the reality of Hamas's continued armed presence.
• Permanent Occupation/Partition: Concerns about the Israeli military remaining in Gaza indefinitely or the territory being partitioned.
• Hostage Situation: The ongoing issue of remaining hostages and their bodies influencing the conflict.
• Hamas's Preparations: Evidence suggesting Hamas is collecting munitions and preparing for future contingencies.
• "War is Over" Statements: The disconnect between pronouncements of the war ending and the ongoing realities on the ground.

Summary

New Wave of Israeli Strikes and Ceasefire Violations

The Gaza Strip has experienced a new wave of Israeli strikes, resulting in the deaths of at least 28 Palestinians, marking one of the deadliest days since the ceasefire took effect five weeks prior. The Israeli military claims these strikes were a response to hostilities initiated by Hamas militants, a charge Hamas denies. The strikes, which hit Gaza City and Khan Yunis, targeted areas west of the "yellow line," territory remaining under Hamas control. These incidents represent repeated breaches of the US-brokered truce. A Hamas-designated spokesperson stated that the majority of casualties were women, children, and the elderly, accusing Israeli forces of deliberately targeting and escalating operations. Israel maintains that the strikes targeted Hamas fighters who allegedly fired near its troops in the south, with no Israeli soldiers reported injured. Hamas, however, characterized the strikes as a "transparent attempt to justify what it describes as ongoing violations of humanitarian law."

Humanitarian Crisis and Harsh Living Conditions

Across the Gaza Strip, approximately 90% of the population remains displaced, forced into crowded tent camps within Hamas-controlled zones. Conditions in these camps are deteriorating daily. Heavy rains and storm surges have flooded coastal camps, damaging flimsy shelters. In Khan Yunis, families have erected sand barriers along the seafront to prevent water from inundating their tents. Residents report being only about 20 meters from the shore, with waves pushing in during storms, soaking belongings. With winter approaching and temperatures potentially dropping below 6° Celsius, these canvas tents are inadequate for the harsh weather. The ceasefire has halted front-line fighting, but renewed air strikes, flooding, and the onset of cold weather mean the struggle for survival in Gaza is far from over.

The Fragile Ceasefire and Peace Plan Prospects

Gertin Baskin, an Israeli peace activist and negotiator, described the ceasefire as "very fragile" with breaches occurring "almost on a daily basis" by both sides. He refrained from judging who was more responsible for these violations. The hope, according to Baskin, lies in the UN Security Council resolution, which is expected to facilitate progress on "stage two" of the peace process. This stage includes the deployment of a Palestinian technocratic government, a Palestinian police force, and an international security force in Gaza. Baskin indicated that the United States is preventing Israel from renewing hostilities, despite calls within the Israeli government to do so. Qatar, a mediator, views the recent escalation as a threat to the ceasefire agreement.

Hamas's Position and International Involvement

Baskin believes that Hamas, like the majority of Israeli citizens, does not wish to renew the war, citing pressure from the Gazan population. He also highlighted the role of Qatari, Egyptian, and Turkish mediators in stabilizing the situation and restraining "fanatics" within Hamas who might seek to reignite fighting. The UN Security Council's endorsement of an international stabilization force, part of the second phase of the peace plan, has been rejected by Hamas, which opposes the presence of an outside force. Baskin clarified that Hamas's objection is not to the stabilization force itself, but to any form of occupation or external governance of Gaza. Hamas insists that Gaza should be governed by and for Gazans. Mediators are expected to convey to Hamas that the stabilization force is temporary and that Gaza's development will be for its residents, not for foreigners or Israelis. The US, through figures like Steve Whitoff, is reportedly committed to Gaza's development for its people, with a gradual Israeli withdrawal contingent on stabilization.

European Union's Discussions on Gaza's Future

European Union foreign ministers are meeting in Brussels to discuss Gaza's future, including reconstruction and reforms of the Palestinian Authority (PA). Over 60 delegates are attending. The EU is considering expanding its existing mission to train up to 3,000 Palestinian police officers, viewing it as an investment in a future Palestinian state and its security. A significant challenge is the deployment of these officers, given Gaza's divided control, with Hamas currently controlling 47% of the territory. EU officials acknowledge that Hamas disarming is the best-case scenario, but this has not yet occurred.

Donor Conference and PA Reforms

Palestinian officials are also attending a donor conference in Brussels, where the EU, as the largest donor of aid to Palestinians, is focusing on PA reforms. The EU views the PA as the representative of the Palestinian people, not Hamas. However, both Palestinians and Israelis have expressed dissatisfaction with the PA for different reasons. Donors are inquiring about reforms implemented by the PA. Israelis are urging the EU to press the PA to reform its textbooks and education system, which they claim incite hatred. Additionally, Israelis want the PA to cease providing stipends to Palestinian prisoners arrested by Israeli forces, arguing these payments encourage terrorism. PA President Mahmoud Abbas has stated that this program has been restricted to families in desperate need, a claim not accepted by Israelis.

Hamas's Refusal to Disarm and Future Scenarios

Ahmed Fouad Al-Katib, a Gaza analyst, stated that Hamas has never intended to disarm. He suggests that while Qatar and Turkey may have hoped to rebrand Hamas, the group desires to relinquish day-to-day governance while retaining control over borders and influence, akin to the Hezbollah model. Al-Katib believes Hamas is unlikely to change this stance. He also pointed out a gap between the aspirations for the International Stabilization Force to facilitate disarmament and the reluctance of potential contributing countries to engage in offensive roles against Hamas or risk their soldiers' lives. This gap, he argues, may lead to the Israeli military remaining in Gaza for the foreseeable future.

Al-Katib expressed concern that without Hamas disarmament, the stabilization force could become merely a symbolic presence. He also raised the possibility of a scaled-down force, similar to UNIFIL in southern Lebanon, but noted Israeli reluctance due to the potential for such a force to indirectly protect Hamas. The concern is that this could lead to discussions of permanent occupation or partition of Gaza, which Al-Katib strongly opposes.

Ongoing Conflict and the "War is Over" Narrative

Al-Katib emphasized that the Israeli military is unlikely to withdraw as long as Hamas remains armed, especially with the bodies of the last three deceased hostages still held. He cited reports of Hamas collecting unexploded munitions and paying fighters to remain active, preparing contingency plans. He believes Israel will not withdraw unless Qatar, Turkey, and others exert maximum pressure on Hamas leadership.

Regarding statements like President Trump's that the war in Gaza is over, Al-Katib argued that while the large-scale bombardment and mass displacement have ceased, the war is far from over. The issues of remaining hostages, disarmament, the existence of tunnels, and the potential for elements of Hamas to engage in suicidal confrontations mean that a "calm Gaza" where recovery and reconstruction can begin is still distant. The war, in its "old shape and form," may be over for now, but the conflict's broader implications persist.