The Traitors-style coup to bring down Keir Starmer | The Daily T

Key Concepts

• Leadership Challenge: An attempt to replace the current leader of a political party.
• Downing Street: The official residence and office of the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, often used to refer to the Prime Minister's administration.
• Media Round: A series of interviews and appearances by a politician in various media outlets.
• "Flush out" Strategy: A tactic to force a political opponent into a public position or action.
• "Own Goal": A self-inflicted mistake that harms one's own cause.
• "Toxic Culture": A negative and unhealthy environment within an organization, often characterized by bullying, sexism, or lack of respect.
• "Group Think": A psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people in which the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an irrational or dysfunctional decision-making outcome.
• Manifesto Pledge: A promise or commitment made by a political party in its election manifesto.
• Blairite: A supporter of Tony Blair's centrist policies within the Labour Party.
• Corbinite: A supporter of Jeremy Corbyn's left-wing policies within the Labour Party.
• Zeitgeist: The defining spirit or mood of a particular period of history as shown by the ideas and beliefs of the time.

Westminster Coup Attempts and Leadership Speculation

This discussion delves into the recent political maneuvering within the Labour Party, focusing on alleged attempts to unseat the current leader, Keir Starmer, and the role of Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, in these machinations. The analysis suggests that Downing Street may have orchestrated a media strategy to counter potential leadership challenges, particularly targeting Streeting.

Downing Street's Media Strategy and its Backfire

• The Initial Reports: On Tuesday evening, The Guardian, The Times, and the BBC's political editor, Chris Mason, all published stories citing Downing Street sources. These reports stated that the leadership would fight any challenge to Keir Starmer and that attempting to replace him would be politically and economically unwise.
• "Spidey Senses Tingling": The simultaneous appearance of similar comments from multiple sources triggered suspicion, prompting political journalists to investigate further.
• Targeting Wes Streeting: While Downing Street's general message was clear, some sources within these stories, though not all attributed to Downing Street, began pointing fingers at specific cabinet ministers, with Wes Streeting receiving significant attention. The Guardian reported concerns about Streeting having "50 front benches ready to jump and resign after the budget."
• The "Flush Out" Theory: A key theory presented is that Downing Street knew Wes Streeting was scheduled for a media round and used this opportunity to "flush him out." The intention, according to this theory, was to force Streeting into a public declaration of support for Starmer, thereby quashing rumors of his leadership ambitions.
• Comparison to Andy Burnham: This strategy is compared to a past incident at the Labour conference where Andy Burnham publicly declared his leadership ambitions. Burnham was "slapped down" by party figures, which, paradoxically, emboldened Starmer by highlighting the difficulty of replacing him. The current situation is seen as an attempt to replicate this by "leaning in" to existing "mutterings" about Wes Streeting.
• Backfire and Naivety: The analysis argues that this strategy has backfired. Unlike Andy Burnham, Wes Streeting is not openly campaigning for leadership. By forcing him into the spotlight, Downing Street inadvertently provided him with a platform to showcase his capabilities. The text suggests a "naivety" in thinking that a skilled media performer like Streeting would not use this opportunity to highlight his strengths, especially in contrast to the Prime Minister.

Wes Streeting's Response and its Impact

• Humorous and Self-Assured: Wes Streeting's handling of the media questioning is described as "spectacular." He responded with humor, comparing his situation to the TV show "Traitors" and stating that the briefings were "water off a duck's back."
• Cultural Reference and Relatability: His use of the "Traitors" reference is seen as a clever cultural touchpoint that makes him relatable to the public, particularly "Middle England."
• "Own Goal" for Orchestrators: The effectiveness of Streeting's response is framed as a significant "own goal" for whoever orchestrated the briefing.
• Reinforcing Appeal: A text from a government minister is quoted, stating that Streeting is now "more popular because he is so self assured" and that he "took my breath away in answering every question directly and with humor." This highlights that the attempt to undermine him has instead showcased his appeal as a politician and a brilliant communicator.

The Question of Orchestration and Internal Divisions

• Unclear Orchestrator: While it's clear that Downing Street wanted to convey Starmer's resolve to fight any challenge, the specific individuals orchestrating the briefings against cabinet ministers, particularly Streeting, remain unclear.
• Starmer's Denial: Keir Starmer has publicly stated that "nobody on my team briefed against cabinet ministers," and Number 10 has echoed this denial.
• Morgan McSweeney's Role: The influential Chief of Staff, Morgan McSweeney, has been implicated. Starmer's response when asked about confidence in McSweeney was notably indirect, stating that "Morgan and my team are absolutely focused on delivering for the country," rather than a direct affirmation of confidence. This is seen as a "wrinkle" in the narrative.
• "Toxic Culture" Allegations: Kemi Badenoch, the Health Secretary, has publicly stated there is a "toxic culture in Number 10" and that "sexist briefings" have come from there. He even called for the Prime Minister to sack those responsible, a move described as "almost as bad as telling the prime minister he had to go."
• Internalizing the Discourse: The analysis suggests that the Labour Party is "internalizing the discourse," meaning that policy decisions are being made to appease internal dissent and prevent mutiny, rather than solely based on public need. The example of the child benefit cap is cited as a potential policy decision made to stave off rebellion from Labour backbenchers.

Wes Streeting's Political Profile and Leadership Prospects

• Not Yet Ready to be "Flushed": The argument is made that Streeting is not yet openly positioning himself for leadership, making the attempt to "flush him out" premature and potentially counterproductive.
• Perceived as Right-Wing: Right-wing commentators are seen as viewing Wes Streeting favorably, believing him to be right-wing. However, his policy proposals from 2020, including taxing capital gains similarly to income, increasing corporation tax, supporting a graduate tax, and abolishing tuition fees, are presented as evidence that he is not strictly right-wing.
• Blairite/Progressive: He is described as a "Blairite" or an "old progressive graduate" within the Labour Party.
• Chameleon-like Qualities: His ability to adapt and change his stance is seen by some as a sign of being a good politician, while others find it an unattractive quality.
• Low Bar for Communication: His effectiveness as a communicator is highlighted, but this is also attributed to the generally low standards of political communication, particularly in comparison to the Prime Minister.
• Challenges for Leadership:
  • Convincing Labour MPs: Streeting needs to convince Labour MPs that he is a better prospect than Starmer for the next election.
  • Formal Mechanism Difficulty: Forcing out a sitting Labour leader requires 20% of Labour MPs (81 individuals) to publicly declare their support for a rival, which is a significant hurdle. This is contrasted with the Conservative Party's system, where only 15% of MPs' letters are needed to trigger a leadership contest.
  • Labour Membership Opposition: Surveys suggest that Labour members rank Streeting low, likely due to his perceived right-wing stance. A "Corbinite" is quoted as enjoying the "Blairites do to each other" dynamic.
  • Appeal to Young Voters: It is questioned whether Streeting appeals to young, radical voters, particularly in light of the Green Party's growing influence.
• Comparison with Shabbana Mahmood: If Streeting were to face Shabbana Mahmood in a leadership contest, he might not appear as right-wing. However, the analysis suggests that both are on the right of the party, and a contest between them would be a "tussle of two figures on the right." It is considered unlikely that two such figures would reach the membership stage, as there are enough left-wing MPs to ensure a left-wing candidate progresses.

Ed Miliband's Mention and the Green Party's Influence

• Ed Miliband's Name Briefly Mentioned: Ed Miliband's name was briefly mentioned as a potential leadership candidate, but this was quickly withdrawn. He is described as having been "badly burned" by the 2015 defeat and not appearing to "hankering to get to number 10 again."
• Green Party's Shifting Focus: The Green Party's appeal is no longer solely about environmental issues but has moved towards socialist themes, making it harder for traditional Labour figures to counter them.

Broader Political Context and Public Perception

• Downing Street's Concern: The fact that Downing Street felt the need to publicly assert Starmer's resolve to fight a leadership challenge indicates genuine concern about his premiership being under threat.
• Public Opinion and Vulnerability: The Labour Party's unpopularity (18% voting intention) and the upcoming "tricky budget" are creating a difficult political moment. The Prime Minister is perceived as "on the ropes" and "vulnerable."
• Comparison to Tory Psychodrama: The current situation within Labour is compared to the "psychodrama moments of late Liz Truss or mid-late Boris Johnson," where backbenchers felt the leadership was not working.
• Internalizing Discourse and Policy Decisions: The child benefit cap is presented as an example of a policy potentially designed to appease internal dissent rather than address public demand.
• Sexism in Briefings: The issue of sexist briefings against female cabinet ministers is raised, with a suggestion that there has "always been a woman problem at the heart of the Labour Parliamentary Party."
• Robert Low and the Death Penalty: A segment discusses Robert Low's comments on the death penalty and the reaction of Labour MPs. The observation is made that Labour MPs seemed more disturbed by the prospect of the death penalty than by the description of people being murdered, highlighting a potential difference in moral priorities.
• Nigel Farage's Preference: It is suggested that Nigel Farage would prefer to face Keir Starmer than Wes Streeting or Shabbana Mahmood in an election, implying that Starmer is seen as a weaker opponent.
• BBC Bias and Group Think: The discussion touches upon bias in the BBC, suggesting it reflects "group think" rather than conscious pursuit of bias, and that the reaction to the death penalty discussion does not reflect public views.

Conclusion

The analysis concludes that Downing Street's attempt to control the narrative around Keir Starmer's leadership has backfired, inadvertently highlighting Wes Streeting's strengths as a communicator and politician. The situation reveals internal divisions and concerns within the Labour Party about Starmer's leadership, particularly in the face of an upcoming budget and ongoing unpopularity. The discussion also touches upon broader issues of political strategy, media influence, and the evolving landscape of political appeal.