The Street for Monday, Feb. 23, 2026

Summary of BNN Bloomberg Segment with Gavin Graham

Key Concepts:

• Tariffs & Trade: US tariff policies under Trump, impact on Canada (KUZMA), Section 301 trade act, Congressional oversight.
• Market Volatility: Current low volatility despite geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
• Oil & Geopolitics: US-Iran tensions, potential impact on oil prices and energy stocks.
• Canadian Banks: Earnings reports, performance drivers (net interest margins, acquisitions), potential risks (credit losses).
• AI & Tech Stocks: Performance of “Magnificent Seven”, NVIDIA’s position, potential for sector rotation.
• Gold & Precious Metals: Recent performance driven by geopolitical uncertainty and rising gold prices.
• Suncor: Performance, production, refining, and impact of Trans Mountain Pipeline.
• Loblaw & Merck: Corporate investment and restructuring news.
• Gilead Sciences & Our Cell X: Acquisition news.

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1. US Tariffs & Trade Relations with Canada

The segment began with a discussion of the US Supreme Court striking down Donald Trump’s broad-based tariffs. While a victory for those opposing tariffs, the situation remains fluid. The ruling affirmed Congress’s constitutional authority over tariffs, limiting the President’s power. However, Trump immediately announced a 15% tariff increase under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, subject to Congressional approval after 150 days.

Crucially, Canada is currently shielded from many of these tariffs due to the KUZMA (Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement), but this protection expires on July 1st. A KUZMA review is scheduled, and the US administration has indicated it will investigate trading partner policies, potentially leading to further tariffs. Former Deputy Prime Minister Jean Charest emphasized the importance of renewing KUZMA to avoid disrupting established supply chains. He noted the economic cost of tariffs to American households and the potential for political pressure as the US midterm elections approach. Gavin Graham highlighted that even with KUZMA, certain Canadian industries like steel, aluminum, and lumber already face higher tariffs.

2. Market Overview & Volatility

Despite geopolitical tensions (US-Iran) and trade uncertainties, market volatility remains surprisingly low. Graham noted this is unusual given the circumstances, including concerns about the cost of data center build-outs and a potential rotation away from the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks. He suggested this low volatility could indicate a potential correction.

3. Oil & Geopolitical Risk – US-Iran Tensions

The escalating tensions between the US and Iran, evidenced by a significant US military buildup in the region, were discussed. While oil prices haven’t risen dramatically, Graham expressed surprise, suggesting they should be higher given the potential for disruption to oil shipments. He noted the US has a history of following through on its rhetoric and that Iran might choose to escalate if its nuclear facilities are threatened. He predicted oil prices could rise to the $75-$80 range in a negative scenario.

4. Canadian Bank Earnings & Outlook

The upcoming earnings reports from Canada’s major banks were a key focus. Graham highlighted the positive impact of falling interest rates on bank net interest margins. He specifically discussed:

• Bank of Nova Scotia: Praised for selling its Colombian operations, acquiring a stake in KeyCorp, and focusing on Canadian wealth management.
• Bank of Montreal: Benefitting from the acquisition of Canadian Western Bank and its US operations.
• TD Bank: Recovering from anti-money laundering penalties.
• RBC & CIBC: Noted for their steady performance and recent corporate activity.

Graham cautioned investors to watch for increases in provisions for credit losses and rising past-due numbers on credit card debt as potential red flags.

5. AI & Tech Sector Analysis

The discussion touched on the performance of the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks. While Alphabet received an upgrade from Wells Fargo, citing its position as an AI winner, Graham cautioned that these stocks are already highly valued and may struggle to sustain their growth. He emphasized that not all tech companies will succeed in the AI race. NVIDIA was highlighted as a key player due to its chip production, but its stock has stalled recently.

6. Precious Metals & Suncor

Gold and gold miners like Kinross Gold have benefited from geopolitical uncertainty and rising gold prices. Graham noted that gold miners are finally starting to outperform the price of gold itself. Suncor was also discussed positively, citing record production, refining performance, and the benefits of the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion.

7. Corporate News Snippets

• Loblaw: Investing $2.4 billion in Canada, opening 70 new stores, and creating over 9,000 jobs.
• Merck: Reorganizing its pharmaceutical business to focus on cancer drugs in anticipation of patent expiration for its blockbuster immunotherapy drug.
• Gilead Sciences: Acquiring biotech firm Our Cell X for up to $7.8 billion to expand its oncology pipeline.

Notable Quotes:

• Jean Charest: “It is a major victory for those who are opposed to tariffs…It just establishes a clear fact the competency over imposing tariffs is with Congress, not the executive and not the President.”
• Gavin Graham: “The difficulty with all of these Mag Seven stocks is they can’t all be winners. There are going to be some people who actually end up being…losers.”

Technical Terms:

• KUZMA (Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement): A trade agreement replacing NAFTA.
• Section 301: A US trade law allowing the President to impose tariffs on countries deemed to have unfair trade practices.
• Net Interest Margin: The difference between the interest income banks generate and the interest they pay.
• Capex (Capital Expenditure): Funds used by a company to acquire, upgrade, and maintain physical assets.
• Supply Chain: The network of organizations, people, activities, information, and resources involved in moving a product or service from supplier to customer.
• Oncology: The study and treatment of cancer.
• Immunotherapy: A type of cancer treatment that uses the body's own immune system to fight cancer.
• Cell Therapy: A type of treatment that involves introducing new cells into a patient's body to treat a disease.

Synthesis/Conclusion:

The segment painted a picture of cautious optimism amidst significant global uncertainties. While the US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs offered a temporary reprieve, the potential for renewed trade tensions remains high. Canadian banks appear well-positioned to benefit from current economic conditions, but investors should monitor credit risk. The AI revolution presents both opportunities and risks in the tech sector, and geopolitical tensions continue to influence commodity markets like oil and gold. Overall, the message was one of vigilance and the need for a diversified investment strategy in a complex and evolving global landscape.