The Street for Friday, Jan. 9, 2026

Key Concepts

• US Supreme Court Tariff Ruling: Potential ruling on the legality of Trump-era tariffs and its implications for Canada and global trade.
• Trade Diversification: Canada’s efforts to expand trade relationships beyond the US.
• KUSMA Revision Talks: Upcoming renegotiations of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).
• Tech Sector Expansion: Broadening investment opportunities beyond the “Magnificent Seven” tech companies, including companies supporting tech infrastructure (power generation, data storage).
• Labour Market Resilience: Canada’s relatively stable employment figures despite economic uncertainties.
• Oil Market Dynamics: Factors influencing oil prices, including geopolitical events (Venezuela, Iran), US policy, and potential trade deals.
• Analyst Upgrades: Recent positive revisions for Airbnb by Barclays and other firms.

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Market Overview & News Highlights (January 2nd)

The broadcast covered a range of market news and economic indicators, with a central focus on the anticipated US Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs and the Canadian labour force report.

1. US Supreme Court Tariff Ruling & Trade Implications:

The primary focus was the impending US Supreme Court decision regarding the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Experts suggest that even if the tariffs are struck down, the administration may seek alternative methods to maintain them. The potential for refunds of collected tariffs (estimated at up to $150 billion USD) was discussed, but optimism regarding a smooth refund process was low. The ruling’s broader implications for presidential power regarding trade were also highlighted. A key point raised was the potential for the US to invoke the Trade Act of 1974 or Section 338 to reimpose tariffs. Bob Rae, former Canadian Ambassador to the UN, characterized the situation as a potential abuse of American power, potentially motivated by economic gain and a disregard for international law.

2. Canadian Labour Force Report (December):

Statistics Canada reported little change in employment in December, with the unemployment rate rising to 6.8% due to increased labour force participation. Jemmy Jean, Chief Economist at Desjardins Group, characterized the report as satisfactory, noting the resilience of the Canadian job market despite trade concerns. The increase in unemployment was attributed to more people actively seeking work, rather than widespread layoffs. The youth unemployment rate (15-24) saw a notable increase to 13.3%.

3. Corporate Earnings & Market Movers:

• Aritzia: Reported strong Q3 results, exceeding Bay Street expectations, driven by US sales, digital initiatives, and marketing. While the stock is considered expensive, its growth potential remains a key question for investors.
• Tilray Brands: Shares surged in premarket trading following better-than-expected net revenue and profit, boosted by cannabis sales and the potential impact of US federal marijuana reclassification.
• WD-40: Shares declined after disappointing Q1 profits, attributed to lower sales in the Asia-Pacific region.
• Airbnb: Received upgrades from Barclays, Wells Fargo, and Cantor Fitzgerald, leading to a rise in premarket trading. The upgrades were based on potential upside from “reserve now, pay later” hotel options and stable margins.
• Glenore/Rio Tinto: Confirmed merger talks, potentially creating a mining giant.

4. Market Performance (January 2nd):

• US Futures: Slightly positive (Dow up 0.18%, NASDAQ up 0.28%, S&P 500 up 0.2%).
• Asian Markets: Generally positive (Nikkei up 1.61%, Hang Seng up 0.32%, CSI 300 up 0.45%).
• European Markets: Positive (FTSE up 0.58%, CAC 40 up 0.95%, DAX up 0.42%).
• TSX: Bouncing back, up almost three-quarters of a point, led by energy stocks.
• Commodities: Gold and silver rebounded, with silver experiencing a significant surge. Oil prices were slightly up, influenced by geopolitical factors in Iran and Venezuela.

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Investment Strategy & Analysis

Alan Small, Senior Investment Advisor at Alan Small Financial Group, provided insights on investment strategies:

1. Tech Sector Diversification: Small advocated for broadening investment beyond the “Magnificent Seven” tech companies, focusing on companies supporting the tech infrastructure, such as power generation (e.g., GE Nova, Vistra) and data storage (e.g., Western Digital, Seagate, Micron). He emphasized the importance of evaluating valuations and considering potential profit-taking.

2. Oil Sector Outlook: Small expressed a cautious outlook on the oil sector, anticipating potential downward pressure in the long term due to increased production from sources like Venezuela and potentially Russia. He suggested focusing on oil companies with strong dividend yields.

3. Investment Approach: Small emphasized a bottom-up stock-picking approach, focusing on company fundamentals and identifying opportunities based on current market trends. He advised trimming profits from high-performing investments and reallocating capital to undervalued areas.

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Key Arguments & Perspectives

• Trump’s Tariffs: The prevailing view was that even if struck down by the Supreme Court, the Trump administration would likely find alternative ways to maintain tariffs.
• Canadian Economic Resilience: Despite global uncertainties, the Canadian economy, particularly the labour market, demonstrated resilience.
• Tech Sector Growth: The tech sector is expected to continue driving market growth, but diversification beyond the major players is crucial.
• Geopolitical Risk: Events in Iran and Venezuela were identified as potential catalysts for oil price volatility.

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Notable Quotes

• Alan Small: “I haven’t heard anyone say something different in that if they do strike down or say that the president was not or should not have been able to push through these tariffs, it’s the talk that somehow, some way the administration will find other ways to to continue to have these tariffs in place.”
• Bob Rae: “It is an affront to sovereignty. It's an affront to territorial integrity. It's an affront to the Charter of the United Nations.”
• Jemmy Jean: “The job market manages to stay quite resilient…There’s no sense of panic here.”

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Synthesis & Conclusion

The broadcast highlighted a complex interplay of economic and geopolitical factors influencing markets. The US Supreme Court’s impending tariff ruling, the Canadian labour market’s resilience, and evolving dynamics in the tech and oil sectors were key themes. Investment strategies focused on diversification, value assessment, and a cautious approach to volatile sectors. The overall tone was one of cautious optimism, tempered by the recognition of significant uncertainties and potential risks. The emphasis on adapting to changing market conditions and focusing on fundamental analysis was a recurring message.