The Security Brief: How will Trump’s Gaza plan be implemented? | BBC News

Key Concepts

• 72-hour window: A critical period for Hamas to release 48 remaining Israeli hostages.
• Predetermined positions: IDF withdrawal lines agreed upon as part of the ceasefire.
• Total Victory: A political term used by Netanyahu, defined as Hamas disarmed and Gaza demilitarized.
• Kinetic activity: Military actions, primarily demolitions and air strikes, that continued until the ceasefire.
• Suicide APCs (Armored Personnel Carriers): An M113 vehicle packed with explosives, remote-controlled, and detonated to destroy buildings.
• Conop (Concept of Operations): A military term for a detailed plan or strategy for a specific operation.
• Unexploded Ordnance (UXO): Explosive weapons that failed to detonate upon impact and remain a hazard.
• International Stabilization Force (ISF): A proposed multinational force to ensure long-term security and disarm Hamas.
• DDR (Disarm, Demobilize, Reintegrate): A process for managing former combatants, involving weapon collection, demobilization, and reintegration into civilian life.
• Security Vacuum: A situation where there is no effective authority or force to maintain order, often leading to instability and the rise of new groups.
• Chapter 6/Chapter 7 Peacekeeping Operations: UN Security Council mandates for peacekeeping, with Chapter 6 not authorizing force and Chapter 7 authorizing force.
• Pattern of Life: Live intelligence imagery showing daily activities and movements in an area, often gathered by drones.

Current Ceasefire Dynamics and Immediate Dangers

A highly delicate 72-hour window is underway, during which Hamas is expected to release 48 remaining Israeli hostages by midday local time on Monday. This period is marked by extreme fragility, with Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) withdrawing to predetermined lines and tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Palestinians attempting to return to their homes. The returning population faces immense challenges, including widespread rubble, unexploded ordnance (UXO), severe lack of food, water, and sanitary arrangements, creating significant instability for both parties.

Israeli Troop Withdrawal and Gaza's Division

Verifid's Merlin Thomas analyzed President Trump's latest plan for the initial stage of Israeli troop withdrawal. This plan, depicted by yellow lines on a map, would still leave Israel controlling approximately 55% of Gaza. Israel has already divided the Gaza Strip into various military corridors, shown as red lines, which are militarized zones used by the army for access and movement. While some parts of the White House plan align with existing Israeli military boundaries, the exact final agreement remains unclear. Palestinians are now able to return to northern Gaza, but vast areas, including entire neighborhoods in Gaza City, have been "wiped off the map," leaving little but destruction.

The Elusive Concept of "Total Victory"

Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli troops would remain in position until Hamas is disarmed and "total victory" is secured, setting a high bar. Mikey Kay, a former military strategic planner, expressed extreme caution regarding the term "victory" in this context, citing historical precedents. He referenced President George W. Bush's "Mission Accomplished" declaration in May 2003, three months after the Iraq invasion, which was followed by over 4,500 US troops killed, 32,000 injured, and a cost of $3 trillion. For Netanyahu, "total victory" means Hamas disarmed and Gaza demilitarized, but Kay emphasized that such definitive terms often "don't weather well."

The Role of US Troops in Oversight

Washington announced the deployment of 200 American troops to Jerusalem to head a civil-military task force. Mikey Kay suggested these troops would be deployed outside Gaza, within Israel, to oversee IDF operations from command and control centers. Their role would involve monitoring drone footage providing "pattern of life" intelligence (live images of displacement and migration patterns) to ensure adherence to rules of engagement, prevent easy trigger-pulling, and safeguard the fragile 72-hour ceasefire process. Netanyahu has indicated a willingness to resume conflict if Hamas reneges on the deal, and "kinetic activity" (demolitions and air strikes) continued right up until the ceasefire.

Extensive Destruction and Humanitarian Crisis

The destruction in Gaza is described as catastrophic. Data points reveal that 60% of all buildings and 92% of homes have been destroyed. Human casualties are estimated at 67,000 dead, including 18,000 children, though this number is likely much higher due to the unknown number of bodies buried under rubble. Satellite imagery of areas like the Tal al-Sultan refugee camp in Rafah illustrates the significant devastation over the past two years.

The sheer volume of rubble is estimated at over 40 million tons. UNRWA estimates that clearing this rubble with 100 trucks a day would take 15 years and cost half a billion dollars. A major problem beneath the rubble is unexploded ordnance (UXO), posing a massive danger to returning populations. Mikey Kay drew a parallel to central Vietnam, where NGOs are still clearing UXO from the Vietnam War 50 years later, indicating that clearance in Gaza will take decades.

IDF Tactics: "Suicide APCs"

Israeli media has reported an increased use of "suicide APCs" (Armored Personnel Carriers) by the IDF. These involve an aging, vulnerable M113 APC, which is packed with a massive amount of explosives, remote-controlled, and driven to a target building before being detonated. This "concept of operations" (conop) has been increasingly utilized in recent months, contributing to the scale of destruction.

Challenges of an International Stabilization Force (ISF)

The 20-point plan for post-conflict stability includes an International Stabilization Force (ISF). Mikey Kay, drawing on his experience in Afghanistan, Kosovo, and Macedonia, outlined the primary aim of such a force: ensuring the disarming of Hamas. This would likely involve a "DDR" (Disarm, Demobilize, Reintegrate) process, as seen in Operation Essential Harvest in Macedonia (2001). This process involves setting up collection points for weapons under amnesty, followed by amnesty for Hamas members to relocate into civilian communities. Longer-term aims include training vetted Palestinian forces and providing long-term security, which Kay stressed would take "decades," not months or years, citing the US/UK/NATO efforts in Afghanistan.

The Peril of a Security Vacuum

A critical lesson from Iraq, where Paul Bremer's decision to fire 400,000 Iraqi troops created a security vacuum that allowed Al-Qaeda in Iraq to flourish and contribute to the rise of ISIS, highlights the dangers of not utilizing existing security structures. With Hamas leadership targeted, a security vacuum could emerge. An investigation by another news organization identified "looting gangs" now called "popular forces," which are reportedly linked to Israeli funding and are positioning themselves as alternatives to Hamas. These groups, attracting allegiance from other militias, could operate with impunity in a security vacuum, a tactic not exclusive to Israel (e.g., the Free Syrian Army in Syria).

Mandate and Credibility for the ISF

Historically, the mandate for an ISF, including its rules of engagement, would be set by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). However, the UNSC, particularly its P5 members (Russia, China, United States, France, United Kingdom), has been in "paralysis" since 2012, making approval of Chapter 6 (peacekeeping without force) or Chapter 7 (peacekeeping with approved force) operations unlikely. Therefore, the US and Israel would likely need to seek a multinational force. Crucially, for any multinational force to have credibility and longevity, it must include security forces and political buy-in from regional organizations, such as the Arab League.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The situation in the Middle East is at an extremely delicate juncture, balancing a fragile ceasefire and hostage release with the immense challenges of post-conflict stabilization. The immediate future is fraught with dangers, from the humanitarian crisis caused by widespread destruction and unexploded ordnance to the political complexities of disarming Hamas and establishing a credible, long-term security framework. The lessons from past conflicts underscore the risks of creating security vacuums and the decades-long commitment required for effective reconstruction and security force development. The path forward necessitates not only military disengagement but also a robust, regionally supported international stabilization effort to prevent further catastrophic outcomes.