THE RISKIEST Places to Live in the US as Our Climate Changes | Weathered: Earth's Extremes

Key Concepts

• Climate Change Vulnerability
• Hazards (Heat waves, cold spells, extreme precipitation, drought)
• Exposure (People, infrastructure, resources impacted by hazards)
• Vulnerability (Communities of color, elderly, children under five, the poor)
• Extreme Heat
• Extreme Precipitation
• Sea Level Rise
• Urban Heat Island
• Adaptation, Mitigation, and Resiliency

Risk Map Creation: Hazards, Exposure, and Vulnerability

Dr. Marshall Shepherd and Dr. Binita KC created a risk map of the United States by combining three key variables: hazards, exposure, and vulnerability.

• Hazards: The model incorporates heat waves, cold spells, extreme precipitation, and drought.
• Exposure: Exposure refers to the people, infrastructure, and resources that are impacted by extreme events like heat waves, droughts, or extreme rainfall. Urban spaces are highlighted as areas with high exposure due to their concentration of people and infrastructure. Examples include metro Atlanta, Miami, Southern Florida, and parts of the Southwest and Los Angeles.
• Vulnerability: Vulnerability focuses on the segments of the population most susceptible to climate change impacts. These include communities of color, the elderly, children under five, and the poor. The map highlights the "Black Belt" region of the South as an area of high vulnerability, as well as areas in Florida with large elderly populations.

Predicted Changes in Extreme Events

The models predict significant changes in extreme events as the climate warms.

• Temperature: Global warming is causing increases in both average and extreme temperatures, leading to unprecedented instances of record-breaking heat. Parts of Louisiana, Texas, and Florida are projected to experience over 100 days per year with temperatures exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit by 2053. Days over 125 degrees Fahrenheit, which were previously rare, are expected to occur at least once a year in large areas of the country. Prolonged power outages at these temperatures could lead to mass mortality.
  • "We should not be surprised by the warmest summers on record, the warmest winters on record, or warmest year on record," - J. Marshall Shepherd.
• Precipitation: While many associate warming with less water, the future of precipitation is more complex. For every degree of warming, the atmosphere holds 7% more moisture. Most of the country, excluding the Southwest, is expected to get wetter on average. A 2024 study showed that extreme precipitation events are expected to worsen with climate warming. The number of people living in high-risk areas could double with two degrees of warming, increasing from 53 million.
  • Daniel Swain: "And so what we see is that the atmosphere not only can produce more extreme precipitation events but can also result in more intensive or faster evaporation when there's moisture available to evaporate."
• Hurricanes and Wildfires: Hurricanes and wildfires are causing catastrophic damage. Wildfires have caused hundreds of billions of dollars of damage in the West and Southeast in the last decade, and hurricanes have devastated coastal communities. Sea level rise poses a significant threat to the Eastern Seaboard and the Gulf Coast.

Regional Vulnerabilities and Risk Factors

The climate-risk map highlights specific areas with high vulnerability.

• Florida: Florida is highly vulnerable due to sea level rise, extreme heat, and its large elderly population. The combination of temperature and humidity is increasingly exceeding the envelope of habitability for humans.
• Gulf Coast: The Gulf Coast is at high risk due to its vulnerability to sea level rise, hurricanes, and extreme heat. The region's concentration of petrochemical industries also contributes to its exposure.
• Southwest and California: The deserts of the Southwest and California are vulnerable to drought, extreme rainfall, and water scarcity.
• Northeast: The densely populated Northeast faces significant hazards from extreme precipitation and flooding.
• Cities: Cities are particularly vulnerable due to the urban heat island effect and increased runoff from impervious surfaces. Atlanta is used as an example, where intense rainstorms lead to rapid runoff and flooding due to the city's urban footprint. Impervious surfaces absorb and reradiate heat, exacerbating the urban heat island effect.

Areas of Highest Risk

According to the map, South Florida, parts of the mouth of the Mississippi near New Orleans, and Los Angeles County are at the highest risk. The map uses a skewed scale from 0.5 to 20, indicating that these areas are "screaming" for help.

Conclusion

The climate-risk map demonstrates that climate variability and vulnerability are present in almost every county in the United States. Adaptation, mitigation, and resiliency are crucial for addressing these risks. There is "no safe haven to climate change," according to J. Marshall Shepherd, emphasizing the widespread impact and the need for proactive measures. The map serves as a call to action, highlighting the urgency of addressing climate change and its disproportionate impacts on vulnerable populations and regions.