The Rise of Robotaxis | Bloomberg Tech Asia 9/26/2025

Key Concepts:

• Robotaxis: Autonomous vehicles used for ride-hailing services.
• Autonomous Driving Levels: Level 2 (partial automation requiring driver monitoring) and higher levels leading to full self-driving.
• Lidar, Radar, Cameras: Sensor technologies used for autonomous navigation.
• Fleet Size: The number of robotaxis a company operates.
• Scalability: The ability to expand robotaxi operations efficiently.
• Profitability: Achieving positive financial returns from robotaxi services.
• Geopolitics: The influence of international relations on robotaxi deployment.
• Regulation: Government rules and policies affecting autonomous vehicle operation.

1. Robotaxi Global Race: US vs. China

• The robotaxi industry is a global race between tech superpowers, primarily the U.S. and China.
• U.S. Leaders: Waymo (formerly Google's self-driving project) operates in multiple cities with fully autonomous rides. Tesla is pursuing a camera and AI-only approach, sparking debate but potentially enabling rapid scaling.
• Chinese Contenders: Baidu's Apollo Go has the largest footprint, operating in dozens of cities. Pony AI and WeRide are also expanding rapidly.
• Competition: It's too early to declare a winner. Waymo has operational advantages (24/7 operation, all-weather capability, scaling fleet, testing in Japan). Chinese companies are expanding aggressively abroad with lower costs and tighter integration.
• Cost Comparison: Baidu robotaxis cost just under $30,000, while Waymo's cost more than three times that amount. Cost efficiency could be China's edge in global scaling.
• Partnerships: U.S. companies like Uber and Lyft have partnered with Chinese manufacturers to expand into the Middle East and Europe.

2. Market Size and Adoption

• Robotaxis are projected to make up just 1% of the global passenger fleet by 2040 but 7% of total passenger kilometers, indicating high utilization.
• Bloomberg NEF estimates approximately 4,000 robotaxis in the U.S. and China currently, less than 0.001% of the world's 1.4 billion passenger vehicles.
• By 2025, the number is expected to rise to 6 million robotaxis, still only 0.4% of the total.

3. Baidu Apollo's Perspective and Expansion

• Profitability: Profitability is expected to increase significantly after removing the human safety driver, a milestone already achieved in Abu Dhabi.
• Target Markets: China and the United States are the primary markets. Hong Kong is noted for its fast policy development and good infrastructure. The UAE is also moving quickly.
• Fleet Size: Baidu Apollo has over 1,000 robotaxis in China and abroad.
• Expansion Plans: Baidu has signed legally binding contracts with partners globally for thousands of robotaxi deployments.
• Cost Advantage: Taxi fares in China are much cheaper than in the U.S., giving Baidu confidence to expand abroad and generate profit.
• Geopolitics: Baidu believes China and the U.S. can overcome geopolitical difficulties through technological innovation and profit generation.
• European Regulation: Baidu acknowledges potential pushback from European regulators but believes that seeing the technology in operation will alleviate misunderstandings.
• Data Handling: Baidu has registered a new entity in Switzerland and is hiring local employees to address concerns about data storage and transfer.
• Profitability Timeline: Profitability depends on government approval and policy support.
• Profitability in China: Individual vehicles are already profitable in several cities in mainland China.
• Deployment Numbers: Deploying a sufficient number of cars is crucial for profitability.
• Future Goals: Baidu aims to bring autonomous driving technology to as many cities and countries as possible, prioritizing safety.

4. Evaluating Robotaxi Companies

• Bloomberg NEF uses five key metrics to evaluate robotaxi companies: operation, number, safety, availability to the general public, and technology.
• Less than 10 operations are currently commercialized.
• Chinese companies are the most aggressive in expansion, targeting markets in the Middle East, Europe, and Southeast Asia. Waymo is focused on London and Tokyo.

5. Robotaxi Market Share and Efficiency

• Robotaxis are capturing increasing market share compared to traditional taxis and ride-hailing services.
• Waymo has achieved market share numbers in the range of 21 to 27% in San Francisco.
• Efficiency is not yet significantly higher than traditional taxis and ride-hailing. Waymo robotaxis in San Francisco still spend over 50% of the time roaming without passengers, and average 1.5 passengers per trip.

6. Global Deployment and Target Markets

• Chinese firms are planning to deploy thousands of robotaxis globally over the next three years.
• Southeast Asia: Partnerships are in place, with testing in Singapore and potential rollout by the end of the year.
• Europe: Baidu has partnered with Lyft to bring robotaxis to the continent starting with the U.K. and Germany in 2026. Another company has teamed up with Uber for testing.
• Middle East: The UAE and Saudi Arabia are key targets. WeRide has a presence in Dubai and Saudi Arabia. Pony AI and Baidu Apollo are also active in the region.
• UAE Focus: Dubai aims for 25% autonomous transportation by 2030.
• Gulf Market Advantages: Higher charging rates and less public backlash due to a higher proportion of guest workers in the taxi industry.
• Japan: Waymo is collaborating with a taxi app for testing in Tokyo. Japanese carmakers are also entering the self-driving space.
• Japanese Needs: Driverless technology can address the needs of an aging society with limited access to public transport in rural areas.
• Nissan's Approach: Nissan is conducting wireless trials in the U.K. and Japan and partnering with WeRide in China.

7. Conclusion

The robotaxi industry is rapidly evolving, with significant competition between U.S. and Chinese companies. While full commercialization is still years away, deployments are accelerating globally. Chinese companies are aggressively expanding into new markets, while U.S. firms are primarily focused on the domestic market. Key factors for success include scalability, profitability, regulatory approval, and public acceptance. The next decade will be crucial in determining the long-term viability and impact of robotaxis on the future of mobility.