The real cost of Indonesia’s free-meal programme

Summary of CNA Podcast: Indonesia's Free Meal Program

Key Concepts:

• Free Meal Program (Prabo Subanto's initiative)
• Stunting Prevalence
• Nutritious Meals
• Milk and Beef Supply Shortage
• Cattle Import
• Program Sustainability
• Budget Deficit
• Food Poisoning
• Alternative Protein Sources (Fish Milk, Insects)

1. Introduction and Personal Anecdotes:

• The podcast discusses Indonesian President Prabo Subanto's flagship free meal program aimed at feeding 90 million children and pregnant women to combat stunting and malnutrition while boosting farmer incomes.
• The program's launch was marred by food poisoning incidents and concerns about its $28 billion price tag.
• Teresa Tang introduces Ciphel Ismile and Johnny Vadvani from Jakarta to discuss the program's real cost and sustainability.
• Personal anecdotes about school lunch experiences in Canada (hot lunch program), Singapore (milk program with affordability issues), and Indonesia (home-packed meals and street food) highlight the importance of such programs. Johnny's personal experience of not being able to afford the milk program in Singapore underscores the need for inclusive programs.

2. Impact on Stunting and Early Childhood Education:

• Johnny visited Bogo Regency, where a 2012 study revealed nearly 35% of toddlers had growth disorders.
• By 2024, stunting prevalence in Bogo Regency was slashed to 7.59% due to emphasis on nutritious meals.
• Nurh Hikma, head of Bjunga's Rose Integrated Children's Health Post and member of the village's family welfare movement, emphasizes the importance of educating parents and children about healthy eating habits.
• The Healthy Happy Preschool in Bjanga, funded by the Foundation for Mother and Child Health Indonesia since 2014, focuses on nutritious meals and educates parents. The school prioritizes children from low-income families (below $300/month) and provides subsidies. They have observed obesity trends in preschool children from big cities.
• Quote: "Children are not allowed to bring unhealthy snacks...we have found that for several years the obesity trend has always been present in our preschool children and so we also guide them in their nutritional needs." - Foundation for Mother and Child Health Indonesia

3. Public Reception and National Goals:

• The free meal program was a key campaign pledge by President Prabo Subanto, promising to address public health, boost human resource quality, and propel economic growth.
• Indonesia aims to reduce stunting prevalence to 18.8% by 2025.
• World Bank figures estimate food expenditure at a maximum of 52% of total family expenditure in Indonesia.
• The program aims to propel Indonesia towards a "golden era" by 2045, developing intelligent and healthy human resources.
• The principal of sleepy 15 public elementary school noted that students who participated in the free nutritious meal trial experienced fewer illnesses and headaches.
• Quote: "I previously noticed that students often got sick during ceremonies and assemblies and had headaches. Now after 2 months of participating in the trials for this free meal program I feel that the students rarely experience those symptoms. The program is very useful it is very helpful especially for children who come from the middle to lower income bracket." - Principal of sleepy 15 public elementary school

4. Milk and Beef Supply Challenges:

• Indonesia faces a shortage of milk and beef due to its inability to meet domestic demand, relying heavily on imports (80% for milk, 40% for beef).
• The free meal program is expected to exacerbate the milk supply deficit, potentially reaching 8.5 million tons (4.9 million tons for regular consumption, 3.6 million tons for the program).
• Indonesia plans to import 400,000 cattle this year (200,000 dairy, 200,000 beef) and 2 million cattle over the next 5 years for breeding.
• Live cattle imports from Brazil have been approved to diversify sourcing, which currently includes Australia, New Zealand, and the US.
• 90,000 hectares of land in Central Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, and South Kalimantan have been set aside for imported cattle, with Vietnamese TH group as a potential investor.

5. Dairy Farming and Ecological Considerations:

• Ciphel visited a small dairy farm in Lumajang Regency, East Java, and manually milked a cow.
• Milking a cow manually involves preparation (cleaning the other and teeth), stimulation (massaging the other), and gentle squeezing of the tits.
• A cow's productive life ranges from 4 to 10 years, producing 15-20 liters of milk per day.
• Increasing the cattle population is challenging due to dense population and competing land uses (palm oil, rice, etc.).
• Dairy farmer Goshim Romana in Lumajang highlights the difficulty of securing enough feed for the animals, especially during the dry season.
• Quote: "If I increase the cow population I will have to increase the amount of grass. It's easy to buy cows but procuring their feed is difficult. The grass will be plentiful during the rainy season but during the dry season it will be scarce." - Goshim Romana, Dairy Farmer

6. Program Sustainability and Budgetary Concerns:

• Industry experts express concerns about food poisoning cases and hygiene, as food is prepared early in the morning and consumed hours later.
• The program's budget has more than doubled, requiring budget cuts to reach the target of 83 million Indonesians this year.
• The initial budget of 460 trillion rupiah per year promised by President Braoa was reduced to 71 trillion by the Jookoi government.
• The initial allocation of $4.5 billion USD from the state budget for 2025 was based on a cost of $1 per meal, which was later cut to $0.60.
• Indonesia posted a budget deficit in February due to a double-digit drop in state revenues.

7. Alternative Protein Sources and Future Prospects:

• Authorities are considering fish milk (processed fish powder) as an alternative to cow's milk, but critics raise concerns about high sugar levels and insufficient scientific knowledge.
• The National Nutrition Agency is also considering including insects like grasshoppers in the free meal program menu.
• Observers emphasize the challenge of bridging ambition with reality, given Indonesia's diverse geography, economic disparities, and infrastructural challenges.
• The long-term fate of the program depends on its successful implementation in the next few years.
• If successful, President Prao's administration may consider making the program permanent through a legislative framework.
• Johnny believes the free meal program is a good initiative that promotes inclusivity, reduces stigma, and fosters social cohesion.
• President Prao has instructed to accelerate the program and has stated that if his programs fail, Indonesians should not nominate him again for president in 2029.
• Quote: "It is logistically difficult to provide nutritious meals immediately to all people for that reason I Prao Subanto President of the Republic of Indonesia apologized to all parents and children who have not received them however I am certain that in 2025 by the end of 2025 All Indonesian children will receive nutritious meals." - President Prao Subanto

8. Conclusion:

• The free meal program is a well-intentioned initiative facing significant challenges related to supply chain, budget, and implementation. Its success will depend on addressing these challenges and ensuring long-term sustainability. The program's ambition is commendable, but its feasibility requires careful scrutiny and adaptation to Indonesia's unique context.
• Quote: "There is no such thing as a free lunch."