“The Physical Market Is Taking Over the Paper Market” | Nomi Prins

Key Concepts

• Supercycle in Commodities: A prolonged period of rising commodity prices driven by structural supply issues and increased demand.
• Debanking: The practice of financial institutions terminating services to individuals or businesses, often based on political or ideological grounds.
• Structural Supply Issues: Long-term limitations in the ability to increase the production of commodities, regardless of price increases.
• Shadow Reserve Currency: A commodity (like silver) that could potentially function as a store of value alongside or as an alternative to traditional fiat currencies.
• Quantitative Easing (QE): A monetary policy where a central bank purchases government bonds or other assets to increase the money supply and lower interest rates.
• Geopolitical Diversification: Central banks reducing their reliance on US Treasury bonds and increasing holdings of gold and other assets.
• Jurisdictional Risk: The political, economic, and regulatory risks associated with mining operations in specific countries or regions.

Market Overview & Price Action (February 2026)

The video, recorded at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference 2026, highlights significant market movements. Gold has surpassed $5,000 per ounce, and silver is trading above $117, reaching a new all-time high. This volatility occurs amidst heightened institutional friction, including a $5 billion lawsuit filed by President Trump against JP Morgan regarding debanking practices and confirmed DOJ subpoenas issued to the Federal Reserve. The discussion centers on whether the surge in hard asset prices is a temporary reaction to uncertainty or a structural shift.

Structural vs. Reactive Price Movement

Nomi Prince argues that the current price increases in commodities are driven by both uncertainty and fundamental, structural supply issues. She emphasizes that these supply constraints are not easily resolved, creating sustained momentum. This contrasts with previous price surges that were primarily reactive to crises (like 2008). The current situation represents the beginning of a major supercycle in commodities.

Silver’s Performance & Supply Dynamics

Silver is experiencing a more rapid price increase than gold due to its dual role as an industrial metal and a potential “shadow reserve currency.” A critical factor is a consistent supply shortfall – a 200 million ounce deficit for four consecutive years, projected to continue into a fifth. No significant new silver mines are expected to come online in the next two years, meaning the only potential supply increase comes from existing mines operating at capacity or potential acquisitions. Investing in silver mining companies is therefore considered a strategic move.

Central Bank Activity & Treasury Holdings

Central banks are actively reducing their holdings of US Treasury bonds and increasing their gold reserves. Gold holdings now exceed the value of US Treasuries on central bank balance sheets. Prince calculated that central banks need to acquire an additional 2% of their reserves to reach 2008 levels of gold holdings, indicating continued upward pressure on gold prices. This shift reflects a diversification strategy away from US debt and towards hard assets. The combined market value of gold and silver now surpasses that of major tech companies like Nvidia, Google, Apple, and Microsoft.

Geopolitical & Institutional Uncertainty

The lawsuit against JP Morgan and the DOJ subpoenas to the Federal Reserve contribute to market uncertainty. Prince suggests these events highlight a power struggle and erode trust in traditional financial institutions, driving investors towards tangible assets. She notes that banks themselves are actively buying gold, often to back their own ETFs, further supporting prices.

Price Forecasts & Investment Strategy

Prince forecasts gold reaching $6,000 per ounce within the next six months and silver reaching $180 by the end of the year. She recommends shifting investment focus downstream in the mining value chain – from large, already-appreciated gold companies to smaller miners with permits or near-production status, particularly in politically stable jurisdictions. She also suggests taking profits from silver ETFs (like SLV) and reinvesting in silver mining companies.

Emerging Trends: Sovereign & Institutional Investment

There's a growing trend of sovereign wealth funds (Saudi Arabia, Middle Eastern and Asian funds) investing in both gold and silver, driven by diversification away from debt and the need for a cheaper alternative to gold. India is highlighted as a significant silver consumer, particularly for solar panel manufacturing. China is also actively securing access to critical minerals through direct investment in mining projects. The emergence of new payment systems backed by gold suggests a potential return to a gold-standard-like system.

Copper’s Potential & Supply Concerns

Copper is identified as a potentially undervalued commodity. Demand is expected to increase by 30% by 2030 due to the need for copper in energy grids and other infrastructure. Supply constraints and geopolitical factors are driving a bullish outlook, with a $7 per pound price forecast.

The Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy

The discussion anticipates a potential easing of monetary policy under a new Fed chair, potentially involving interest rate cuts and a return to quantitative easing (QE) or similar bond-buying programs to support the Treasury market. This is driven by the increasing US debt burden and the need to replace central bank demand for Treasuries.

Generational Shift in Investment Philosophy

A noticeable increase in younger investors at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference suggests a growing awareness of the benefits of hard assets. These investors are motivated by concerns about inflation and a lack of trust in traditional financial institutions. They are focusing on assets with tangible value and limited supply.

Notable Quotes

• Nomi Prince: “We are really in the beginning of a major supercycle in commodities…because of the structural supply issues that you can’t just snap your fingers and have go away.”
• Nomi Prince: “Hard assets have certain constraints that institutions cannot finagle. You you cannot switch on a mine.”
• Jeremy Saffron: “It’s almost like you can’t keep up with the headlines.”

Conclusion

The video paints a picture of a rapidly evolving investment landscape driven by structural shifts in commodity supply, geopolitical uncertainty, and changing central bank policies. The consensus is that the current surge in hard asset prices is not merely a temporary reaction but the beginning of a long-term supercycle. A strategic investment approach focused on silver and gold mining companies, particularly those with strong fundamentals and operating in stable jurisdictions, is recommended. The increasing involvement of sovereign wealth funds and the potential for a shift towards gold-backed payment systems further reinforce the bullish outlook for these assets.