The Open for Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025

Key Concepts

• The market is currently in a cyclical bull market, expected to continue into 2028, driven by factors like infrastructure spending, diversified trade, and demand for “hard assets.”
• AI development is a major market driver, but potential for a crash in AI stocks exists in 2026.
• SK Hynix is gaining market share in the memory chip industry, particularly in HBM, due to early investment and a key partnership with NVIDIA, challenging Samsung’s dominance.
• A significant portion of Canadians lack a will, leading to potential complications and unintended consequences for estate distribution.
• Specific stock picks highlighted include FISERV (FSV) and Diageo (DEO).

Market Performance & Outlook (December 24, 2025)

The segment began with market updates, noting the S&P 500 and TSX reaching record highs, with the TSX up over 30% in the past 12 months (excluding dividends). US tech stocks were poised for a marginally higher open. Commodities saw oil rallying but remaining below $60 USD, while gold hit record highs exceeding $4,500 USD for February futures. The Canadian dollar was strengthening, influenced by expectations of paused interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada compared to the US Federal Reserve. Bitcoin had previously surged, potentially boosted by perceived support from the Trump administration, but had since declined.

Javid Mirza’s Market Analysis (Raymond James)

Javid Mirza of Raymond James believes the market has completed a corrective phase (February-April 2025) and is entering a new 3-5 year cyclical bull market, following a previous cycle from 2018-2022. He anticipates “smooth sailing” into the first half of 2028. He is particularly constructive on Canada, citing infrastructure build-out, diversified trade (east and west, not just the US via KUZMA), and a secular shift towards “hard assets” (natural resources) attracting foreign investment and strengthening the Canadian dollar.

Mirza maintains a long-term bullish view on information technology (NASDAQ 100), anticipating another 3-5 years of upside despite a recent rotation out of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks and a broadening of the rally, evidenced by the Russell 2000 (US small caps) breaking out to new highs. He notes WTI crude has lagged behind rallies in gold and copper, but commercial hedgers are currently long WTI, suggesting a potential 3-6 month rally. He cautions that silver, after an exponential rise (~140% in the past 12 months), is seeing commercial hedgers reduce risk exposure, indicating a potential period of consolidation. Mirza believes interest rates are headed higher in a new secular uptrend and views the TLT (US 20-year bond ETF) as likely to remain in a sideways trading range until 2027, after which inflation could pick up, causing the TLT to decline. He recommends energy stocks as a better income alternative, offering strong dividend yields and inflation protection.

Corporate News & Transactions

Several corporate transactions were highlighted: NVIDIA halted testing of Intel’s 18A production process despite a $5 billion investment deal (which did not include a commitment for Intel to manufacture NVIDIA chips). First Quantum Minerals agreed to sell the Cobre Las Cruces mine in Spain to Global Panduro for up to $190 million USD plus profit-based payments. Sanofi is acquiring Dynavax for approximately $2.2 billion USD to expand its vaccine portfolio, specifically gaining access to a marketed Hepatitis B vaccine in the US.

2026 Market Trends & Investment Strategies (Dietz Interview)

David Dietz of Dietz Wealth Management Group noted the S&P 500 is in record territory, with gold slightly decreasing from recent highs (February futures briefly exceeding $4500) and the Canadian dollar holding above $0.73 USD against the US dollar. He attributes the market’s resilience to Trump’s tariff threats to the perception that his “bark is worse than his bite” – dubbed the “Taco Trade.” He believes an AI stock crash is not imminent, as companies driving AI spending demonstrate strong earnings, revenue growth, high margins, and low debt.

Dietz highlighted FISERV (FSV) as a top pick, citing its leading position in payment processing and a potential turnaround story with a new CEO setting low expectations. He also recommended Diageo (DEO), despite declining alcohol consumption trends, due to its dominant position with leading brands and cost-cutting measures.

Samsung vs. SK Hynix: The Memory Chip Battle

A documentary segment detailed the challenges facing Samsung in the memory chip market (DRAM) due to the rise of SK Hynix and Micron. SK Hynix gained a competitive advantage by investing in HBM technology earlier, anticipating the demand from AI applications. HBM is crucial for AI accelerators and processing large datasets. SK Hynix secured a key contract with NVIDIA, becoming a major supplier, while Samsung currently represents only about 1% of NVIDIA’s cost of goods sold. Samsung is now aggressively investing in next-generation HBM and attempting to regain NVIDIA’s business, as well as strengthening its foundry business with a recent $16.5 billion deal with Tesla. Samsung’s struggles pose a significant risk to the South Korean economy, given its substantial contribution to the country’s exports (approximately 20%). DRAM was explained as a “coffee cup” holding information for processors, with HBM being a larger, faster “cup” for AI’s data needs.

Analyst Calls & Further Market Updates

Additional analyst calls included Scotia raising its price target for WSP Global to $318 (outperform rating) and Citi cutting its price target for OpenText to $36 US (neutral rating), favoring PEGA Systems, BlackLine, and Workiva. The First Quantum Minerals sale of the Las Cruces mine and the Sanofi acquisition of Dynavax were reiterated.

Personal Finance: The Importance of Wills (Sciberras Interview)

Julie Sciberras of Manulife Wealth Management highlighted that approximately half of Canadians do not have a will. Dying intestate results in the province administering the estate according to a predetermined formula, potentially not reflecting the individual’s wishes. Key elements of a will include naming an executor, a guardian for minor children, and outlining asset distribution. Choosing a trustworthy executor and naming a contingent executor are crucial. Executors are entitled to 5% of the estate assets. Common will mistakes include lack of updates for life events, complex family situations, and cross-border assets. Engaging a financial planner or lawyer is crucial to ensure the will is legally sound and reflects the individual’s wishes.

Conclusion

The segment painted a picture of a market poised for continued growth, driven by technological advancements and global economic shifts. While risks exist, particularly regarding potential AI stock corrections and the competitive landscape in the memory chip industry, a generally bullish outlook prevailed. The importance of proactive financial planning, including estate planning through wills, was also emphasized, highlighting the need for Canadians to address this often-overlooked aspect of personal finance.