The Open for Friday, Jan. 9, 2026

Key Concepts

• Canadian Economic Resilience: Despite global uncertainties, the Canadian economy demonstrated surprising strength in December with job gains, though the unemployment rate increased due to labor force participation.
• Shift in Private Markets: A trend is emerging where companies are staying private longer, fueled by large private equity and venture capital funds, blurring the lines between private and public markets.
• Corporate Performance Highlights: Aritzia, Tilray, and Vistra experienced positive market reactions driven by strong earnings, strategic partnerships, and growth prospects. General Motors faced challenges related to its EV transition.
• Geopolitical & Global Economic Concerns: Rising tensions in China-US relations, instability in Iran, and the EU-Mercosur trade deal contribute to a complex global landscape.
• AI & Tech Investment: Significant capital continues to flow into Artificial Intelligence, and tech companies are increasingly investing in alternative energy sources like nuclear power.

Canadian Economy & Market Overview

The Canadian economy added 8,200 jobs in December, exceeding expectations of a 25,000 job loss. These gains were primarily concentrated in Ontario and Quebec, particularly within the healthcare sector. Despite this positive development, the unemployment rate rose to 6.8% due to an increase of over 80,000 new entrants into the labor force. Economist Earl Davis (BMO Global Asset Management) described the job numbers as “puzzlingly positive,” attributing them to spillover effects from strong US growth. He emphasized the importance of analyzing job trends over monthly fluctuations, noting the positive trend supports moderate Canadian growth, albeit slower than the US. The TSX reached a new all-time high during the broadcast. Wage growth is currently around 3.5%, and demographic shifts (aging population, reduced immigration) are also influencing the labor force.

Corporate Performance & M&A Activity

Aritzia reported higher profits and revenue ($1 billion, up 43% year-over-year), exceeding Bay Street expectations. Same-store sales increased across all categories, driven by US sales, digital initiatives, and marketing. The company raised its full-year sales outlook, and its stock surged to a new record high of $130. Tilray shares rose approximately 1% after beating revenue and profit estimates, boosted by increased sales in Canada and internationally, with anticipated growth in the US medical cannabis market. Vistra experienced a significant stock rally (up 20% in pre-market and continuing during the broadcast) after announcing a deal with Meta to support nuclear power plants, providing 6 gigabytes of power for 5 million homes. General Motors announced $6 billion in charges related to its EV business and $1.1 billion related to restructuring in China, but analysts (Mizuho Securities) raised the price target, citing a potential turning point.

Glencore confirmed talks with Rio Tinto regarding a potential merger, including a possible all-share takeover, with Rio Tinto reportedly open to retaining Glencore’s coal business. Glencore has set a February 5th deadline for Rio Tinto to announce a formal offer.

Global Economic & Geopolitical Landscape

US hiring slowed in December, with an estimated 50,000 jobs added, but the unemployment rate remained low. Wage growth (3.8% vs. expected 3.6%) indicates persistent inflationary pressures, and the market has largely priced out expectations of a rate cut in January. Experts (Gennady Goldberg, TD Securities) anticipate the Fed will remain data-dependent, potentially cutting rates in March if the economy moderates. Geopolitical tensions are rising, with China’s military drills near Taiwan and potential US intervention in Venezuela raising anxieties. Escalating protests in Iran are raising concerns about regional instability and potential disruptions to oil supply, contributing to a 2.5% increase in oil prices. The European Union is nearing a free trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc of South American countries, despite concerns from France and Italy.

Investment Trends & Strategies

A significant trend is emerging where companies are staying private longer, with large assets like Inderal, Cursor ($30 billion), and Databricks ($100 billion+) remaining in venture capitalist hands or within continuation funds. This is a shift from the traditional model of rapid IPOs. Companies like Databricks are continuously raising private rounds (Series A to Series L) with funding from firms like Andreessen Horowitz and SoftBank, effectively bypassing public markets. The backlog of private companies awaiting public offerings is significant. Going public carries risks, but “more sunlight is good for valuations” due to increased investor accountability.

Investors are increasingly seeking companies that combine growth potential with predictable business models and reasonable valuations – a “growth-slash-value” approach. Canadian stocks are performing strongly, with TD Bank highlighted as a potentially attractive investment. MDA Space issued a high-yield bond (6.4% yield, 150 basis points over Canada bonds) considered attractive within a diversified bond portfolio. National interests are increasingly influencing venture capital, particularly with firms like Andreessen Horowitz.

Emerging Market Dynamics & Technical Considerations

The number of listed companies, particularly on the TSX, is declining. The Canadian Venture Exchange (CDNX) is unique, lacking a direct equivalent elsewhere. A “grey zone” is emerging, blurring the lines between public and private markets, evidenced by crossover funds, continuation funds, and companies like Apollo building investment banking operations. A potential issue for SpaceX’s anticipated IPO is the existing ticker symbol “SP” held by a small SPAC ETF managed by Tuttle Capital (under $10 million in assets). SpaceX could potentially purchase the ticker.

Conclusion

The broadcast highlighted a complex economic landscape characterized by surprising resilience in the Canadian economy, a significant shift in private market dynamics, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. Investment strategies are evolving to prioritize companies with sustainable growth and reasonable valuations, while the lines between public and private markets continue to blur. The continued flow of capital into AI and alternative energy sources signals a focus on long-term growth sectors.