The National and Economic Security Portfolio

Investopedia Express – Week of January 29th, 2026: Summary

Key Concepts: Sell America Trade, FOMC Meeting, Earnings Season (MAG 7 companies), Geopolitical Risk, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum), US Economic Policy (Trump Administration), Defense Industrial Base, Emerging Markets, Investor Sentiment, Affordability, Luxury Goods Resale Market.

I. Market Overview & Emerging Trends

The US equity markets began the week relatively flat, following a second losing week of the year driven by the intensifying “Sell America Trade.” Key indicators point to increasing risk: US 10-year Treasury yields rose above 4.2%, signaling waning investor confidence in US debt, while the US dollar hit a four-month low. Conversely, emerging markets are experiencing a bull run, with the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF reaching all-time highs, benefiting from capital flight from the US. This trend mirrors a similar period in 2025.

II. The “Sell America Trade” & Geopolitical Factors

The “Sell America Trade” is fueled by concerns about US policy and geopolitical actions. The recent US stance at Davos, particularly regarding Greenland (demanding its sale from Denmark for access to rare earth minerals and establishing a “golden dome” defense force), has strained relations with Europe. This is interpreted as a broader strategy to reset US economic, military, and technological dominance, described as “empire building.” The US invasion of Venezuela is also cited as part of this assertive foreign policy. A key question is whether investors currently trust the United States, as evidenced by the sell-off in US Treasuries.

III. Precious Metals Surge & Defense Spending

A significant trend is the surge in precious metals prices. Gold reached record highs exceeding $5,000 per ounce, while silver hit $110 per ounce and platinum also reached record levels. This is attributed to both safe-haven demand (due to geopolitical uncertainty and declining confidence in US assets) and increased industrial demand, particularly for defense and technology applications. Increased government spending on defense is expected to further drive demand for these metals.

IV. Policy Analysis with Terry Haynes (Pangia Policy)

Terry Haynes of Pangia Policy provided insight into the Trump administration’s economic and foreign policy agenda. He highlighted the National Security Strategy released in November as a transparent blueprint for restoring US dominance. Key tenets include: balanced trade (through tariffs), securing critical supply chains, re-industrialization, energy dominance, and preserving financial sector dominance. Haynes emphasized the importance of understanding the policy driving provocation, as it has portfolio implications. He noted a focus on bolstering the US defense industrial base, spurred by a 2024 report identifying its weaknesses. He also pointed to a strategy of “interdependence” – strengthening economic ties with both allies and non-aligned nations – and the US’s renewed focus on regions like South America and the Middle East. He anticipates another reconciliation bill (“Big Beautiful Bill 2.0”) to further these policies.

V. Economic Data & Upcoming Events

The week ahead is packed with economic data and events:

• Earnings: Major companies reporting include those in the MAG 7 (Microsoft, Meta, Apple), as well as United Health, Boeing, Texas Instruments, and others.
• FOMC Meeting (Wednesday): While a rate change is unlikely (98% probability of holding steady), the meeting and subsequent press conference will be closely watched for forward guidance.
• Economic Indicators: Durable goods orders, consumer confidence, trade deficit, producer price index.
• Government Shutdown Risk (Friday): A potential government shutdown looms if a spending bill is not passed.

VI. Investor Sentiment & Retail Buying

Despite the risks, global portfolio managers are remarkably bullish on US stocks. Cash levels are at their lowest since 2022 (3.2%), and net protection against a market downturn is at its lowest since 2018. Individual investors are also actively buying stocks, with retail buying at a six-year high. This consensus optimism raises concerns about potential market vulnerability, echoing Warren Buffett’s advice to “be fearful when others are greedy.”

VII. Luxury Goods Resale Market as an Indicator

A notable trend is the weakening of resale values for luxury goods like Rolex watches and Hermes Birkin bags. Premiums over retail prices are declining, indicating a potential shift in spending habits among the wealthy and a possible sign of economic caution. Rising supply and primary market price increases are contributing to this trend. This is being monitored as a potential indicator of broader economic slowdown.

Notable Quotes:

• Warren Buffett: “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when they are fearful.”
• Terry Haynes: "The Trump administration's interest…goes back into the Biden administration and not in the way that you might think." (referring to the long-term planning behind current policies)

Technical Terms:

• FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee – the body within the Federal Reserve System that sets monetary policy.
• Reconciliation Bill: A legislative process in the US Congress that allows for expedited consideration of certain tax and spending bills.
• Defcon: Defense Condition – a measure of the alert status of the US armed forces.
• CME FedWatch Tool: A market-based indicator of expectations for future Federal Reserve interest rate policy.
• MAG 7: A group of seven large US technology companies (Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla, and Meta) that have driven a significant portion of the stock market’s gains.

Conclusion:

The week ahead presents a complex landscape of economic data, geopolitical risks, and policy shifts. The “Sell America Trade” and the assertive foreign policy of the US administration are creating uncertainty, driving investors towards safe-haven assets like precious metals. Despite this, investor sentiment remains remarkably bullish, potentially creating a vulnerable market. Monitoring key indicators, including the FOMC decision, earnings reports, and the luxury goods resale market, will be crucial for navigating this volatile environment. The long-term implications of the current US strategy to reassert global dominance remain to be seen, but investors must understand the underlying policy drivers to make informed decisions.