The Mechanics of the Big Cycle

Key Concepts:

• Monetary Order
• Domestic Political/Social Order
• Global World Order
• Cycles of Order Breakdown and Renewal
• Debt Crisis
• Confluence of Orders

Cycles of Orders:

The speaker discusses the cyclical nature of various orders, including the monetary order, domestic political/social order, and global world order. These orders tend to go through cycles of establishment, prosperity, breakdown, and renewal.

Historical Example: 1945

The year 1945 is cited as a prime example of a period where a new monetary order and other orders were established following a period of significant upheaval. This new beginning was characterized by a collective memory of past traumas.

Building Up of Credit and Prosperity:

Following the establishment of a new order, there is typically a period of building up credit and prosperity. The speaker notes that the level of credit can start low and gradually increase.

Second Industrial Revolution and Panic of 1907:

The speaker references the Second Industrial Revolution and the Panic of 1907 as examples of historical events that fit within these cyclical patterns. These events are interconnected and demonstrate the relationships between different types of orders.

Interrelated Cycles and Debt Crisis:

The speaker emphasizes that these cycles are interrelated. A combination of factors, such as a monetary order breakdown or a debt crisis (like the 2008 financial crisis), coupled with internal political dynamics, can lead to significant consequences.

Current Prosperity and Sustainability:

The speaker acknowledges that we are currently in a period of prosperity and are actively working to sustain it. However, he implies that this prosperity may be masking underlying issues.

Chapter 8 of the Book:

The speaker directs the audience to Chapter 8 of his book for a more detailed explanation of the cyclical patterns discussed.

Simultaneous Consideration of Issues:

The speaker suggests that when considering these issues, it is important to think about them simultaneously rather than in isolation. This approach allows for a more comprehensive understanding of the current situation and potential future developments.

Confluence of Issues:

The speaker concludes by highlighting the importance of the confluence of different types of issues in shaping the overall trajectory of these cycles. Understanding the interplay between monetary, political, and global factors is crucial for assessing where we stand in the current cycle.

Synthesis/Conclusion:

The main takeaway is that various orders (monetary, political, global) operate in cyclical patterns of creation, growth, breakdown, and renewal. These cycles are interconnected, and events like debt crises or political instability can accelerate the breakdown of existing orders. The speaker encourages a holistic view, considering the confluence of these factors to understand the current state and potential future of these cycles.