‘THE JANUARY EFFECT’ has two different meanings for the market, says investor

2026 Investing Landscape: Insights from Scott Redler - January 2026 Outlook

Key Concepts: Bull Market Volatility, January Effect, Precious Metals (Gold & Silver), Sector Rotation (Semiconductors, Data Centers, Energy), Apple Super Cycle, Palantir Profit Taking, CEO Share Buybacks.

Market Outlook & Bull Market Lifespan

Scott Redler, founder and strategic officer of T3 Trading, anticipates continued, though volatile, growth in the bull market throughout 2026. He notes the significant range experienced in the previous year – a 20% drop in the first quarter followed by a 16% overall gain – highlighting the potential for substantial swings. Redler differentiates between long-term investors who should maintain consistent monthly inflows and active traders who will capitalize on short-term volatility. He predicts “shaking and baking” in the first five trading days of January, with initial strength in the “Magnificent Seven” (Mag 7) stocks followed by profit-taking. He emphasizes that successful trading in this environment involves identifying established trends and “netting money” through strategic positioning.

Precious Metals: Silver & Gold

Redler discusses the recent performance of gold and silver, acknowledging a multi-year bullish trend that recently reached its apex. While silver experienced “massive gains,” he believes its momentum will slow in the coming months. He predicts silver will not reach $100 this year and requires a period of consolidation and proof of sustained strength, mirroring gold’s performance. He anticipates gold and silver will be better performers in the next one to three months.

The January Effect & Investment Opportunities

The “January Effect” – the tendency for stock market performance in January to predict the rest of the year (approximately 70% correlation for positive Januarys) – is a key focus. Redler highlights the tax-loss harvesting that drives this effect, creating opportunities for gains. He specifically identifies Nike (NKE) and Chipotle (CMG) as potential “January Effect” plays.

• Nike (NKE): Redler is bullish on Nike, citing the CEO’s recent share purchases as a positive signal. He believes a strong first quarter could propel the stock to $75 (currently trading around $65).
• Chipotle (CMG): He projects a potential 40% increase in Chipotle’s stock price from its current level.

Early January Volatility & Profit Taking

Redler cautions investors to be aware of potential selling pressure in the first five days of January, particularly from those looking to realize gains and cover taxes. He uses Palantir (PLTR) as an example, noting a four-day decline after a period of significant appreciation, driven by profit-taking. He observed similar selling pressure in Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) on the morning of the interview, despite initial positive momentum.

Apple & the Foldable Phone "Super Cycle"

A significant portion of the discussion centers on Apple (AAPL). Redler believes the anticipated release of a foldable iPhone will trigger a “super cycle” of demand, attracting new buyers and driving accessory sales. He notes Raymond James resuming coverage of Apple with a “Market Perform” rating (downgraded from “Outperform”) but remains optimistic. He argues that the reliability of the iPhone is crucial for modern life – email, entertainment, and more – and a foldable version will address evolving consumer needs. He predicts the stock will reach $300+, noting it was already up 318 points with a session high of 337, and a swing of 547 points from trough to peak. He references the importance of the new “Cassiopeia sieve sequence” for Apple.

Market Performance Snapshot (Interview Date)

At the time of the interview, the S&P, NASDAQ, and Russell indices were all trading in positive territory (green on the screen).

Logical Connections:

The discussion flows logically from a broad market outlook to specific sector and stock recommendations. Redler connects the January Effect to tax-loss harvesting and identifies companies poised to benefit from this phenomenon. He then links Apple’s potential success to a specific product innovation (foldable phone) and its broader impact on consumer behavior and the company’s ecosystem. The observation of early January volatility ties back to the initial discussion of market fluctuations.

Data & Statistics:

• Bull Market Range (Previous Year): 20% decline in Q1, 16% overall gain.
• January Effect Correlation: Approximately 70% correlation between January performance and the rest of the year.
• Nike (NKE) Price Target: $75 (current trading around $65).
• Chipotle (CMG) Potential Gain: 40% increase from current level.
• Apple (AAPL) Price Prediction: $300+.
• Apple (AAPL) Swing: 547 points from trough to peak.

Conclusion:

Scott Redler anticipates a volatile but ultimately positive year for the bull market in 2026. He emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics, identifying emerging trends (like the Apple foldable phone), and capitalizing on short-term opportunities (like the January Effect). He advises investors to be prepared for profit-taking and to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential. The key takeaway is a blend of cautious optimism and proactive trading strategies.