Thế giới toàn cảnh 26/01: Mỹ dọa áp thuế 100% nếu Canada “bắt tay” Trung Quốc

Key Concepts

• Extreme Weather Events: Severe winter storms in the US and Japan, cold snaps in Northwest China.
• Geopolitical Developments: Venezuela’s oil production reform, Myanmar elections, Ukraine-US security agreement, Cuba military exercises, US-China-Canada trade tensions.
• Economic Trends: Incheon Airport passenger numbers, China’s wind power capacity, Libya’s oil deals, potential economic impact of US winter storm.
• International Relations: Diplomatic ties between China and Japan (Panda Diplomacy), US-Cuba relations, Ukraine’s EU aspirations.
• Social Issues: France’s proposed ban on social media for minors, community support during US winter storm, public farewell to pandas in Japan.

Venezuela’s Oil Production Reform

Venezuela aims to increase oil production by 18% this year through reforms that will fully open the sector to private investors. According to Hector Obrigan, General Manager of the National Oil Company, the current legal framework is outdated and requires revisions to update oil industry laws, ensuring legal certainty for private investors. Currently, Venezuela produces around 1.2 million barrels of oil per day and possesses approximately 20% of the world’s oil reserves. Previously, oil exploitation was primarily state-run or through joint ventures with state-controlled stakes. The new bill will allow private companies based in Venezuela to exploit oil after signing contracts.

Extreme Weather Conditions – US, China, and Japan

United States: A historic winter storm is impacting over half of the US population (over 200 million people) across approximately 75% of the country. Temperatures have plummeted to record lows, reaching below -40°C in the Midwest. Over 100,000 homes are without power, and over 14,500 flights have been cancelled. President Trump has declared a state of emergency in South Carolina and Virginia. The storm is characterized by strong winds, heavy snowfall, low visibility, and Arctic air, potentially causing economic damage estimated at up to $24 billion (Research estimates). Community support is emerging, with volunteers assisting healthcare workers and shelters opening for the homeless.

Northwest China: A new cold wave is sweeping across Northwest China, with temperatures dropping to -3°C in some areas and forecast to reach -11°C with potential snowfall. Gansu and Ningxia provinces experienced strong winds and sandstorms over the weekend, causing severe air pollution and traffic disruptions. Meteorological authorities advise caution regarding respiratory health and traffic safety.

Japan: Ishikawa and Totori prefectures are experiencing severe snowfall. Ishikawa received up to 64 cm of snow, nine times the annual average, hindering snow removal efforts. Authorities have closed roads and suspended transportation services. Four people have died and 26 have been injured since the snowfall began on January 20th. Authorities urge caution and limited outdoor activity.

Aviation and Travel – South Korea

Incheon International Airport in South Korea surpassed 74 million passengers in 2023, the highest annual figure since its opening in 2001. This increase is attributed to a surge in flights to and from Japan and China, driven by extended Lunar New Year and Spring Festival holidays, China’s temporary visa-free program, and the weakening of the Korean Won, making destinations like China more attractive. Passenger numbers are projected to increase by 2-6% in 2024, potentially reaching 78.5 million.

Diplomatic News – South Korea & Vietnam

The Vietnamese Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed the death of former South Korean Prime Minister Lee Hae-chan in Ho Chi Minh City. The Ministry, in coordination with Ho Chi Minh City authorities, provided the best possible medical care. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and other Vietnamese leaders expressed condolences to the South Korean government and Lee Hae-chan’s family.

Myanmar Elections

Myanmar has completed the third and final phase of its general election across 63 administrative districts in the third electoral constituency. Voter turnout was reportedly high, with polling stations open from 6:00 AM to 4:00 PM despite long queues. This is Myanmar’s first election since November 2020. Voters elected representatives to both houses of Parliament, state and regional legislatures, and local governments. Preliminary results indicate the Union Solidarity and Development Party is leading in both votes and parliamentary seats.

China’s Renewable Energy Progress

China’s wind power generation from large-scale industrial enterprises exceeded 1,000 billion kWh in 2023, solidifying its global leadership in installed wind power capacity for the 15th consecutive year. Total wind power capacity reached approximately 640 million kW by the end of 2023, accounting for over 16% of global power generation capacity. China plans to add over 200 million kW of wind and solar power this year to accelerate its energy transition.

Ukraine – Security and EU Aspirations

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that the bilateral security agreement between Ukraine and the US is 100% ready, awaiting a time and location for signing. He emphasized that security guarantees are Ukraine’s top priority and that the document will be submitted for ratification by the US and Ukrainian parliaments. Ukraine also aims to open all negotiation chapters for EU membership by the first half of 2026 and be technically ready for membership by 2027. These statements followed trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the US in Abu Dhabi, which did not yield a specific agreement.

Cuba’s Military Exercises

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel oversaw military exercises in Havana, involving helicopters, armored vehicles, tanks, and air defense systems, amidst ongoing tensions with the US. Díaz-Canel emphasized the importance of defense preparedness and national unity.

Trade Tensions – US, Canada, and China

US President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on Canadian goods if Ottawa reaches a trade agreement with Beijing, fearing China will exploit the deal to avoid US tariffs. He stated Canada benefits greatly from the US and “exists because of the United States.” Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau affirmed the importance of Canada-US cooperation but asserted Canada is not dependent on the US for its existence or development.

Libya’s Oil Deals

Libya signed oil agreements worth up to $20 billion with TotalEnergies of France and ConocoPhillips of the US, valid for 25 years. The agreements aim to increase the production capacity of the Wah Oil Company to approximately 850,000 barrels per day, generating projected revenues of over $376 billion for Libya. Memoranda of understanding were also signed with Chevron of the US and the Egyptian Oil Ministry. Libya currently produces around 1.5 million barrels of oil per day and possesses the largest oil reserves in Africa, estimated at 48.4 billion barrels.

Panda Diplomacy – Japan

The two giant pandas, Shao Shao and Lei Lei, are leaving Japan and returning to China, marking the end of an era of “Panda Diplomacy” that began in 1972. Over 310,000 people registered for a lottery to visit the zoo and say goodbye. The pandas are seen as symbols of friendship between China and Japan, and their departure may reflect a cooling in relations.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The report highlights a world grappling with both extreme weather events and complex geopolitical shifts. From devastating winter storms in the US and Japan to political developments in Venezuela, Myanmar, Ukraine, and Libya, the global landscape is marked by instability and change. Economic trends, particularly in aviation and renewable energy, offer glimpses of potential growth, while diplomatic tensions and social concerns underscore the challenges facing international relations and domestic societies. The recurring theme of community resilience in the face of adversity, exemplified by the response to the US winter storm, offers a hopeful counterpoint to the prevailing uncertainties.