Thế giới toàn cảnh 05/01/2026: Mỹ không loại trừ mở chiến dịch bộ binh tại Venezuela | VTV24

Key Concepts

• Venezuela Crisis: Political instability, arrest of President Maduro, collapse of oil exports, potential for US intervention.
• India's Economic Rise: Surpassing Japan as the world's fourth-largest economy, "Goldilocks" economy, growth potential, and challenges.
• Japan's Economic Situation: Aging population, deflation, high public debt, cautious monetary policy, and potential for stagnation.
• Goldilocks Economy: An economic state characterized by stable growth, low inflation, and low unemployment.
• OPEC+ & Oil Market: Impact of Venezuelan crisis on oil supply and prices, OPEC+ decision to maintain production levels.
• International Response: Reactions from Cuba, Chile, Europe, Asia-Pacific nations, and the UN regarding the Venezuela situation.
• China's Technological Advancement: Focus on AI development and modernization of traditional industries.

Venezuela Crisis and International Reactions

The arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has effectively paralyzed the country’s oil exports, leading to a standstill at its ports. The Venezuelan military has recognized Vice President Danc Rodriguez as the interim leader, a decision supported by Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, who called for a return to constitutional order and the resumption of National Assembly proceedings. Five Latin American nations and Spain jointly condemned any external attempts to control Venezuela, following statements from US President Donald Trump suggesting Washington might manage the country and access its oil resources. US Secretary of War Pat Hexes did not rule out a full-scale intervention, stating the US is prepared for a large-scale infantry operation. Trump also considered deploying military forces for a prolonged period to rebuild Venezuela’s oil industry.

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an emergency meeting to address the threats to international peace and security. However, potential US military action faces widespread international opposition, with legal experts citing violations of international law and the UN Charter. Calls for a peaceful, law-based political solution are growing. Cuba, Chile, and European leaders have voiced support for upholding the rule of law and respecting Venezuela’s sovereignty. Countries in the Asia-Pacific region, including Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, have also urged a peaceful resolution adhering to international norms.

As stated by a European representative, “We call on all parties to think of the people, respect the UN Charter and build a fair transition process through dialogue.”

India's Economic Ascent and the "Goldilocks" Economy

India is on track to surpass Japan as the world’s fourth-largest economy in 2026. Experts describe India’s current economic state as a “Goldilocks” economy – not too hot, not too cold – characterized by strong growth, manageable inflation, and job creation. This concept originates from the story of Goldilocks and the Three Bears, where the porridge of the baby bear was “just right.”

India’s GDP grew by 8.2% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2025-26, making it the fastest-growing major economy globally. Inflation has been contained below the Reserve Bank of India’s target, even reaching a low of 0.25% in October. This environment has facilitated credit expansion and sustained growth despite US tariff pressures.

However, the long-term sustainability of this “Goldilocks” phase is questioned, particularly regarding job creation for India’s large youth population (ages 10-26, comprising over 25% of the 1.4 billion population). India aims to overtake Germany as the world’s third-largest economy within three years, but its GDP per capita ($2694 in 2024) remains significantly lower than Japan’s and Germany’s.

Japan's Economic Challenges and Policy Responses

The report highlights the structural challenges facing Japan’s economy, including a rapidly aging and shrinking population, leading to a declining workforce. Growth has been sluggish, hovering around 1%, despite recent improvements due to returning inflation. Japan’s public debt is exceptionally high, reaching approximately 250% of GDP.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is expected to continue the ultra-loose monetary policy of her predecessor, Shinzo Abe, but rising prices necessitate a “responsible” approach to easing. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75% in December, the first increase in 30 years. The government has also signaled a willingness to intervene in the currency market to prevent excessive yen depreciation.

Former advisor to multiple Japanese Prime Ministers, George Hara, emphasized the need for fiscal stimulus to boost GDP, citing the success of Western nations that doubled their GDP through increased government spending over the past 20 years. He believes that Prime Minister Takaichi is considering this approach. However, Japan’s high debt burden makes even small interest rate increases problematic, as they exacerbate budgetary pressures.

Oil Market Implications and OPEC+ Response

The disruption of Venezuelan oil exports has raised concerns about global oil supply. Venezuela possesses the world’s third-largest proven oil reserves (approximately 303 billion barrels, representing 17% of global reserves). However, due to underinvestment, economic crisis, and sanctions, its production has plummeted from 3.5 million barrels per day to around 1 million barrels per day (0.8% of global output), with exports at approximately 500,000 barrels per day.

Experts predict that the immediate impact on Brent crude prices will be limited to a $1-2 per barrel increase, unlikely to reverse the overall downward trend. The disruption occurs amidst a year of significant oil price declines. In the long term, a stabilization of the political situation in Venezuela could potentially increase production to 3 million barrels per day, further contributing to downward pressure on prices. However, the dilapidated state of Venezuela’s pipeline infrastructure (50 years without upgrades) and the estimated $58 billion investment required for full capacity restoration pose significant obstacles.

OPEC+ has agreed to maintain current oil production levels despite geopolitical tensions and the Venezuelan situation, as the global market is already experiencing a supply surplus.

China's Technological Focus

China is prioritizing technological self-reliance, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), as a key driver of high-quality workforce development and modernization. President Xi Jinping has emphasized the importance of simultaneous innovation in technology, industry, and AI application, alongside improved governance. This effort extends to upgrading traditional industries, which account for over 80% of China’s industrial structure. China is also tightening tax regulations on online retailers to boost government revenue amid slowing economic growth, requiring platforms like Alibaba and Shein to share business data with tax authorities.

Global Weather Events

The report briefly mentions several weather events: snowfall in Sonamarg, Kashmir, disrupting daily life and attracting tourists; heavy fog in northern and central India causing transportation delays; and severe flooding in northern Bank, California, due to record rainfall. Additionally, flight disruptions occurred across Greece due to an unspecified issue affecting radio frequencies.

Conclusion

The report paints a complex picture of global economic and political dynamics. The crisis in Venezuela highlights the risks of external intervention and the importance of international law. India’s economic rise presents both opportunities and challenges, while Japan faces significant structural hurdles. The oil market remains sensitive to geopolitical events, but a significant price spike appears unlikely in the short term. China’s focus on technological innovation underscores its long-term ambitions. Ultimately, the report emphasizes the need for dialogue, respect for the rule of law, and peaceful resolutions to global challenges.