The Close for Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026

Key Concepts

• AI Investment & Competition: Google is gaining ground on OpenAI in the AI race, driving investment and innovation across the tech sector.
• Biotech Opportunities: Eli Lilly, Vertex, and Regeneron present compelling investment opportunities driven by innovative drugs and strong pipelines.
• Canadian Housing Market: The Canadian housing market faces headwinds from economic uncertainty and affordability challenges, leading to slower construction and moderate demand.
• Cannabis Market Dynamics: Organigram navigates a competitive Canadian cannabis market while preparing for potential US expansion.
• US-Canada Trade & Infrastructure: Ongoing concerns regarding potential disruptions to the Gordie Howe International Bridge highlight the importance of stable trade relations.
• Canada’s Economic Diversification: Canada is actively pursuing trade agreements to reduce reliance on the US market.

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Infrastructure & Trade Updates

Prime Minister Trudeau and President Biden discussed the Gordie Howe International Bridge, fully funded by Canada, with shared ownership between Canada and Michigan. Former US President Trump is threatening to block its opening until unspecified “compensation” is received. The bridge, expected to open later this year, is projected to handle 400 commercial vehicles per hour and 25% of US-Canada roadway trade volume (estimated at $3.6 billion daily). The 2022 Ambassador Bridge blockade caused an estimated $3-6 billion in economic impact over six days, demonstrating the vulnerability of the trade corridor. Windsor, Ontario’s economy is 60% reliant on US trade, while Detroit ranks second among US cities most dependent on Canadian exports. To mitigate risk, Canada is pursuing free trade agreements with India, Philippines, Thailand, UAE, Saudi Arabia, ASEAN, and MERCOSUR, aiming to double non-US exports to $300 billion. PASCALE CHAN, VP of Strategic Policy and Supply Chains for the Chamber of Commerce, argued blocking the bridge would be “self-defeating.”

Market & Corporate Performance (Part 1)

The TSX Composite reached a new record high, up 0.7% (223 points) to over 33,000. US markets were mixed: the Dow Jones up 0.21%, the S&P 500 down, and the NASDAQ down 0.4%. Spotify’s stock soared after reporting record Q4 user growth, attributed to an enhanced free tier, exceeding expectations for operating income and Q1 monthly active users despite a year-over-year decline in ad revenue. Paramount increased its bid for Skydance, offering to cover Warner Bros. Discovery’s potential $3 billion termination fee to Netflix, which is currently under review. Air Transat, Westjet, and Air Canada suspended flights to Cuba due to a fuel shortage, working to repatriate Canadian travelers.

AI & Tech Investment

Google has made significant progress in the AI space with Gemini, closing the gap with OpenAI and putting pressure on Sam Altman’s company, leading to aggressive investment and a recent bond offering. Analyst Dan Ives characterized Google as a “much more aggressive company” now, focusing on Gemini and enterprise cloud solutions, mirroring Microsoft and Amazon. Google’s issuance of a 100-year bond signals investor confidence, with Ives predicting more tech companies will follow suit to fund AI development, particularly throughout 2026. The recent dip in the “Magnificent Seven” stocks is viewed as a shift in investment focus towards “second, third, fourth derivative beneficiaries” like Palantir and Nebulous, while still recognizing the importance of the “Big Tech MAG Seven” in the AI revolution.

Biotech Investment Landscape

Jeff Meacham, Global Head of Healthcare at Citi, highlighted investment opportunities in Eli Lilly, Vertex, and Regeneron. Eli Lilly’s weight loss drugs, Zepbound and Mounjaro, are promising, but the oral weight loss pill, Orforglipron (launching in April), is a key driver. Lilly is also researching the GLP-1 mechanism for diseases like inflammation, oncology, and neurology. Vertex dominates the cystic fibrosis market with strong intellectual property extending into the late 2030s and is expanding into non-opioid pain relief, sickle cell anemia (gene-edited cell therapy), and kidney disease. Regeneron’s core businesses (Eylea, Dupixent, Libtayo) are growing despite Eylea facing generic competition, with a next-generation melanoma drug potentially approved soon and a deep pipeline in oncology and hematology. Promising areas of oncology research include Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADCs) and bispecific antibodies.

Canadian Housing Market Outlook

Kevin Hughes, Deputy Chief Economist at CMHC, anticipates headwinds for the Canadian housing market due to economic uncertainty, lower population growth, modest income growth, and high carrying costs. CMHC expects a slower pace of construction starts. Overall demand is expected to remain low, with Toronto’s rental vacancy rate projected at 3.5% and Vancouver’s at 4% for the next 2.5-3 years. Calgary is moderating, while Montreal is more resilient. Multi-unit developments account for roughly 80% of construction starts. Government infrastructure investments are expected to contribute approximately 1% GDP growth.

Organigram Cannabis Update

James Yamanaka, CEO of Organigram, reported Q1 revenue was $10 million lower than anticipated due to a softer Canadian market, an eight-week strike in BC, and export issues. However, year-over-year revenue increased by 49%, and adjusted EBITDA increased by 5.3%, maintaining full-year guidance. The integration of Motif Labs is complete, realizing $50 million in synergies. Organigram, the Canadian market leader, is focusing on improving gross margins and expanding international sales in Germany, the UK, and Australia, launching new beverage products with a claimed 15-minute onset time. The company is taking a measured approach to the US market, awaiting regulatory changes.

Conclusion

The segments collectively paint a picture of a dynamic economic landscape. While challenges exist – from potential trade disruptions and housing market headwinds to competitive pressures in the cannabis sector – significant opportunities are emerging in AI, biotech, and strategic economic diversification. The success of companies like Google, Eli Lilly, and Vertex, coupled with Canada’s proactive trade strategy, suggests a continued focus on innovation and adaptation will be crucial for navigating future economic uncertainties.