The Close for Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026

Key Concepts

• Shifting Geopolitical Landscape: Increased focus on national security, particularly in the Arctic, influencing US foreign policy and trade negotiations.
• US-Canada-Europe Trade Dynamics: US assertive negotiation tactics impacting relationships with Canada and potentially Europe, with a focus on securing advantageous trade terms.
• Economic Outlook & Market Performance: Positive economic data driving market gains, but susceptible to geopolitical events and potential shifts in monetary policy.
• Technological Advancement: Investment in emerging technologies like fusion energy and semiconductor manufacturing driving economic growth.
• Ukraine Conflict: Ongoing conflict with incremental Russian gains at a high cost, and potential for future peace negotiations.

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Canada-US Relations & Global Economic Overview (Part 1)

Prime Minister Trudeau emphasized Canada’s strength through diversity in response to rising populism, implicitly addressing criticism from the US. Mark Carney advocated for economic rebuilding and exploring new markets, acknowledging a changing Canada-US dynamic. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick dismissed Canada’s efforts to strengthen ties with China as “political noise,” warning it could jeopardize KUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement) talks. Donald Trump is pursuing a $5 billion lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase, alleging political discrimination in the termination of banking services.

North American markets experienced gains: the TSX rose 151 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.6%, the Dow Jones by 0.6%, and the NASDAQ by 0.9%, attributed to positive economic data and easing geopolitical tensions.

Investment Strategy & Emerging Technologies

Darius Dale of 42 Macro is “overweight equities” for the next 12 months, citing positive trends in growth, inflation, and liquidity. He anticipates a “U-shape” economic recovery driven by monetary easing, fiscal easing, deregulation, and positive demographic trends, despite acknowledging potential corrections. His macro cycle analysis focuses on six key areas: growth, inflation, monetary policy, fiscal policy, liquidity, and positioning.

General Fusion, a BC-based fusion energy company, is going public via a SPAC merger, aiming to raise $105 million to fund a 50% scale demonstration plant with the goal of building a 300MW commercial fusion power plant by the mid-2030s.

US National Security Focus & Greenland

The discussion shifted to a national security-based approach, prioritizing US interests, particularly regarding control of Arctic shipping lanes and potential missile defence positioning. The US prefers a “golden dome” defence system over Greenland rather than the US mainland. This approach is characterized as “The Art of the Deal” – anchoring negotiations to extreme positions. A framework agreement regarding Greenland was reached quickly, but a similar assertive stance towards Canada demonstrably damaged the economic relationship, potentially contributing to a change in Canadian leadership.

US-Europe & USMCA Negotiations

The US Commerce Secretary highlighted a potential $2 trillion boost to European GDP if they adopted digital rules aligned with the US, citing Micron’s $200 billion investment in upstate New York (including a $100 billion “mega fab” in Syracuse) as a model. Negotiations with Canada are framed as advantageous for the US, with Canada already possessing the “second best deal” in the world under USMCA (Mexico having the best). The US is preparing for upcoming renegotiations of the USMCA agreement, anticipating pushback from Canada. Currently, Canada has 85% of its economy entering the US tariff-free, while Mexico has 85% + 15% with a 25% tariff on the latter, and Canada has 35% on the extra 15%.

Market Reactions & Geopolitical Concerns

A sell-off in US bonds and equities was attributed to potential changes in the Federal Reserve chair (Warsh being considered, perceived as more hawkish), rising Japanese yields, and headlines regarding the Greenland situation. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg emphasized the importance of protecting the Arctic region due to increased activity from Russia and China, advocating for a two-track approach: strengthening cooperation among Arctic nations and discussions regarding Greenland’s economy and security, ensuring no access for Russia or China. He indicated that the Danes and Greenlanders are open to increased US presence.

Ukraine Update & Data Points

Stoltenberg also addressed Ukraine, noting incremental Russian gains at a high cost (1,000 casualties per day in December, totaling 30,000 for the month) and expressing optimism about progress towards a peace process, particularly regarding security guarantees and reconstruction. Additional data points included a 30% decline in Canadian visitors to the US, the US economy at $30 trillion, the European economy at $20 trillion, and Intel stock dropping 6% in after-hours trading due to disappointing revenue guidance.

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Conclusion

The segments reveal a complex interplay of economic and geopolitical forces. The US is adopting a more assertive, national security-focused approach to international relations, impacting trade negotiations with Canada and potentially Europe. While positive economic indicators support market gains, these gains remain vulnerable to geopolitical events and shifts in monetary policy. Investment in emerging technologies like fusion energy and semiconductor manufacturing represents a key driver of future growth, but requires strategic infrastructure and favourable regulatory environments. The situation in Ukraine remains a significant concern, with potential for future negotiations, while the Arctic region is emerging as a critical strategic area.