The challenge of disarming Hamas and providing security in Gaza | DW News

Key Concepts

• Gaza Peace Plan: A multi-point plan proposed by Donald Trump aimed at achieving peace and stability in the Gaza Strip.
• International Stabilization Force: A proposed multinational force to ensure security in Gaza after the conflict.
• Disarming Hamas: A key requirement of the peace plan, involving Hamas relinquishing its weapons.
• Security Vacuum: The absence of functioning law enforcement and governance in Gaza, leading to a breakdown of order.
• Hamas Reassertion of Authority: Hamas forces patrolling streets and carrying out public executions to re-establish control.
• Good Faith Partner: A requirement for Israel to demonstrate sincerity in negotiations for Hamas to consider disarming.
• Political Process: The future governance and political arrangements for Gaza, crucial for any disarmament or stabilization efforts.
• UN Security Council: The potential authorizing body for the international stabilization force, facing challenges with P5 member positions.

Diplomatic Efforts and Challenges in Gaza

The current phase of Donald Trump's Gaza peace plan faces significant challenges in its implementation. The United States is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to maintain the fragile peace and encourage Israel and Hamas to advance the plan's objectives. A recent meeting between US Vice President JD Vance and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem highlighted these efforts.

US-Israel Partnership vs. Control

Both US and Israeli officials have rejected the notion that Washington is dictating terms, emphasizing a partnership based on shared values and goals. Prime Minister Netanyahu stated, "We have a partnership, an alliance of partners who share common values and common goals." He further clarified, "We don't want in Israel, we don't want a vassal state, and that's not what Israel is. We don't want a client state, and that's not what Israel is. We want a partnership. We want an ally here." This perspective suggests that a strong Israel, working with Gulf Arab allies, could reduce the US's direct involvement in the Middle East.

Unresolved Issues and the Path Ahead

Despite discussions of partnership, the US is encountering difficulties in addressing critical issues in Gaza. Vice President Vance acknowledged the "tough task" ahead, which includes disarming Hamas and establishing a US-backed international stabilization force. The immediate need for such a force is underscored by the absence of a functioning government in Gaza and Hamas's attempts to regain control.

Hamas's Reassertion of Authority and the Security Vacuum

Recent reports indicate Hamas is actively reimposing its authority in Gaza. This includes public executions, described as a "show of force against rival clans and alleged Israeli collaborators," signaling a zero-tolerance policy for "treason" and "criminality" during a time when Gazans need "reprieve."

Breakdown of Law and Order

The prolonged conflict has led to a breakdown of law and order, with basic infrastructure and services collapsing. Hamas security forces, numbering around 7,000, have been redeployed to patrol the streets. However, this has not instilled a sense of safety for all residents. One individual noted, "The rocket strikes have stopped. The killing has stopped. But in terms of public safety and security, there's no police or government. Gaza is in a security vacuum." Conversely, others have expressed a sense of restored order, stating, "Honestly, after the war ended, we started to feel safe. Their security and discipline now, and the thieves and collaborators, we all dealt with."

Clashes and Temporary Green Light

Hamas has engaged in violent clashes with rival clans, some allegedly backed by Israel and implicated in aid looting. Notably, US President Donald Trump has granted Hamas a "temporary green light" to instill order, with the understanding that they are "standing because they do want to stop the problems and they've been open about it."

Hamas's Willingness to Relinquish Governance vs. Disarmament

Analysts believe Hamas is willing to hand over governance of Gaza but requires guarantees before laying down its arms, a condition that clashes with Israeli demands. Professor Jean Marie Goeno, a professor of international conflict resolution at Columbia University and former UN under secretary general for peacekeeping operations, explained the complexities.

Conditions for Disarmament

Professor Goeno stated, "There are certain caveats to that. Israel has to demonstrate that it will be a good faith partner in negotiations. And the fact that Israel has a systematic record of quite literally assassinating Hamas's negotiating team and moderates within the movement at that isn't really something that instills much confidence for a group like Hamas to want to lay down their weapons." He further elaborated on disarmament in post-conflict contexts: "disarmment happens only when there is some kind of real genuine security guarantee for those who disarm because otherwise they see their weapons as their security guarantee." He emphasized that disarmament cannot be separated from broader political arrangements for Gaza.

Hamas's Political Role

While Hamas is not popular, it remains the perceived "best choice for now" for many in Gaza. Professor Goeno expressed doubt that Hamas would "spontaneously surrender its power," suggesting that a clearer vision of the "future political process" is needed. He believes the best outcome would be Hamas having a "political role and surrendering its armed militia role," but acknowledges this will be difficult to achieve.

The Proposed International Stabilization Force

The establishment of an international stabilization force is a crucial but complex element of the peace plan. Key questions remain regarding its assembly, deployment basis, and mandate.

Ambiguity and Security Assessment

Professor Goeno highlighted the ambiguity surrounding the force's role, linked to the uncertain political situation. He noted the need for a thorough "security assessment" to understand the risks posed by various criminal groups in Gaza. He stressed that such a force would require both military and police capabilities, along with judicial structures, to restore normalcy.

Challenges in Assembly and Credibility

The composition of the force is a particularly contentious issue. The exchange between JD Vance and Benjamin Netanyahu regarding potential Turkish involvement illustrates this. Netanyahu stated he has "very strong opinions" on the matter, implying opposition to Turkish participation. Professor Goeno explained the dilemma: a force needs credibility with Palestinians and must be independent of Israel, yet it cannot be deployed against Israel's views. Turkey's past sympathy for the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas was an offshoot, makes it a problematic contributor from Israel's perspective. The ideal troop contributors must be "independent for Israel and acceptable to the Palestinians," a difficult balance to strike.

The Role of the UN Security Council

The authorization of such a force is likely to fall to the UN Security Council, as neither Israel nor the Palestinian Authority (given Israel's stance) can unilaterally invite it. However, the positions of P5 members, particularly Russia and China, could lead to a "shaky" political basis for the force, potentially through abstentions rather than outright vetoes. This uncertainty about political backing is a significant concern for potential troop-contributing countries, who require clear political support for their credibility. Furthermore, Arab countries considering participation need clarity on the post-force arrangements to avoid indefinite deployment.

Conclusion: A Complex and Interconnected Plan

The implementation of Donald Trump's Gaza peace plan is a multifaceted undertaking fraught with significant challenges. The US is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts, but progress is hindered by unresolved issues such as disarming Hamas and establishing a credible international stabilization force. Hamas's reassertion of authority in Gaza highlights the existing security vacuum and the complexities of transitioning to a stable governance structure. The success of any stabilization effort hinges on addressing the deep-seated mistrust between parties, establishing genuine security guarantees, and defining a clear and acceptable political future for Gaza. The interconnectedness of these elements means that progress in one area is dependent on advancements in others, making the overall process intricate and demanding.