Thailand’s surprise election results - Asia Specific podcast, BBC World Service

Key Concepts

• Establishment (Thailand): A complex, amorphous network of conservative forces including the monarchy, military, senior bureaucrats, big businesses, and royalist elements.
• Pheu Thai Party: A historically dominant political party linked to Thaksin Shinawatra, experiencing a significant decline in recent elections.
• Move Forward Party/People’s Party: Reformist parties that gained momentum but faced obstacles like dissolution and restrictions on campaigning.
• Bhumjaithai Party: A previously mid-sized party that experienced a surge in popularity, now leading the coalition government.
• Sick Man of Asia: A derogatory term applied to Thailand due to its economic stagnation and lagging competitiveness.
• Middle Income Trap: The economic situation where a country struggles to transition from middle-income to high-income status.

Thailand’s Election Results and Economic Stagnation: A Deep Dive

The 2024 Election & Shift in Political Landscape

The recent Thai election saw a surprising victory for pro-establishment parties, specifically Bhumjaithai and parties representing traditional royalist elements, defying pre-election polls and expert predictions. Jonathan Head, the BBC’s South East Asia correspondent, highlighted the impressive civic duty displayed by Thai voters, noting the participation of 57 parties, some with unconventional platforms (e.g., a candidate proposing nuclear weapons acquisition, a Green party focused solely on pet imagery). Despite the colourful spectacle, voters engaged with party programs to varying degrees.

Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak from Chulalongkorn University explained this outcome as a shift from past dynamics. Previously, the “yellow shirts” – representing the conservative establishment – couldn’t win elections, consistently losing to the political machine of Thaksin Shinawatra. This time, however, the establishment, now embodied by Bhumjaithai (represented by the colours blue and green), secured a decisive win. This marks the first time the establishment has directly won an election.

Defining the “Establishment”

Jonathan Head described the Thai “establishment” as a deeply conservative force rooted in the country’s history of never being colonised, fostering a strong reverence for the monarchy (a topic discussed with sensitivity due to legal restrictions on public commentary). This establishment comprises not only the monarchy but also powerful businesses, senior bureaucrats, and the military, which maintains a strong relationship with the monarchy. Its influence is pervasive and often operates discreetly, with “a nod or an instruction” often sufficient to direct lower-level officials. This has historically hindered challenges to the status quo.

Voter Turnout and Shifting Demographics

Thitinan noted a decline in voter turnout from 75% in 2019 to just under 65% in the recent election, suggesting a potential waning of momentum among younger demographics who previously drove reformist movements. The Move Forward Party (predecessor to the People’s Party), which experienced significant success in 2019, faced restrictions on campaigning due to a Constitutional Court ban on proposing legislative amendments. This forced them to adopt a less ambitious, anti-corruption platform, diminishing their appeal. A change in leadership from the charismatic Pita Limjaroenrat to Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut also contributed to a perceived loss of mass appeal. Furthermore, the People’s Party’s decision to support Anutin’s appointment and a new constitution reportedly alienated some of their base.

The Rise of Bhumjaithai and the Decline of Pheu Thai

The Bhumjaithai party’s dramatic rise from a mid-sized, provincially-based party with around 50 seats in 2019 to nearly 200 seats is a key factor in the election results. Jonathan Head attributed this success to effective campaigning and addressing voters’ immediate economic needs with simple, practical programs. However, the most significant driver was the decline of the Pheu Thai Party, the long-dominant force built around Thaksin Shinawatra. Pheu Thai lost half its seats, with many shifting to Bhumjaithai and other conservative parties. Head described the conservative parties as “feeding off the carcass” of Pheu Thai’s once-unbeatable electoral machine.

The Border Conflict with Cambodia & Nationalist Sentiment

The recent border conflict with Cambodia played a role in the election, with Anutin, the new Prime Minister, adopting a strong nationalist stance. He granted the Thai army a free hand in border operations, leading to clashes and territorial gains. Anutin leveraged this situation during the campaign, promising to defend Thai soil and asserting a firm stance against Cambodia, resonating with voters, particularly in border communities. He even secured an audience with the King the night before the election.

Thailand’s Economic Stagnation: The “Sick Man of Asia”

The discussion highlighted Thailand’s economic stagnation, contrasting its rapid growth in the 1980s (reaching 13%) with its current struggles. Jonathan Head explained that Thailand benefited from being an early adopter in the global supply chain, attracting Japanese and Hong Kong-based companies seeking cheaper manufacturing locations. However, this growth stalled after the 1997 financial crisis and has remained stuck at an upper-middle-income level for two decades.

Thitinan identified key issues hindering Thailand’s progress: political instability, a lack of long-term policies due to frequent government changes, and an oligopolistic economic structure that stifles innovation. He argued that Thailand has missed opportunities in emerging fields like AI and technology due to internal conflicts and instability. The country has been labelled the “Sick Man of Asia” – a label that has resonated negatively with many Thais – and is increasingly being compared unfavourably to Vietnam, which has experienced rapid economic growth.

The Future of the Shinawatra Dynasty

The future of the Shinawatra family’s political influence is uncertain. Thaksin Shinawatra, despite his resilience and past successes, is now in prison. His daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, faced setbacks related to the Cambodia border conflict. Jonathan Head suggested that Thaksin may have overestimated his ability to negotiate a deal with the establishment, and his brand has been significantly damaged. He speculated that Pheu Thai might eventually join a conservative coalition, accepting a diminished role.

Potential “Cure” for Thailand’s Economic Woes

Addressing Thailand’s economic challenges requires tackling structural reforms, including improvements to education, upskilling the workforce, climbing up the value chain, and addressing monopolies. However, the current administration’s ties to these monopolies raise questions about its willingness to implement such reforms. Thitinan suggested that continued stagnation could ultimately lead to increased demand for genuine change.

Conclusion

The 2024 Thai election represents a significant shift in the country’s political landscape, with the pro-establishment parties securing a decisive victory. This outcome reflects a complex interplay of factors, including voter fatigue with reformist movements, the decline of the Shinawatra dynasty, the rise of Bhumjaithai, and a growing sense of economic stagnation. Whether the new administration can address Thailand’s deep-seated economic challenges and break free from the “middle income trap” remains to be seen, but the path forward will require bold reforms and a willingness to challenge the entrenched interests of the establishment.