Thai PM Paetongtarn fights for political survival as thousands of protesters rally in Bangkok

Thailand Political Turmoil: PM Under Pressure and Coup Risk

Key Concepts:

• Political turmoil in Thailand
• Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin (Ms. Patten Tan) facing resignation calls
• Leaked phone call with former Cambodian PM Hun Sen
• Border dispute and its impact on Thai politics
• Constitutional Court's role
• No-confidence vote
• Former PM Thaksin Shinawatra's legal troubles and influence
• Military coup risk (always present, never zero)
• Balance of power between Thaksin and his enemies
• Dysfunction and dissatisfaction among the Thai population

Current Political Crisis

Thailand is experiencing heightened political instability, primarily focused on Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin (referred to as Ms. Patten Tan in the transcript). Thousands protested in Bangkok demanding her resignation. The ruling Puea Thai Party, in power for two years, faces challenges.

Leaked Phone Call Controversy

A leaked recording of a phone call between Ms. Patten Tan and former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has fueled the crisis. The discussion centered on a long-standing border dispute, which has intensified since late May. Ms. Patten Tan appeared to appease Hun Sen while criticizing the Thai army commander. She has since apologized, claiming it was a negotiation tactic.

Coalition Government Instability

The disagreement over border dispute management has divided Ms. Patten Tan's coalition government. The Bhumjaithai Party, the second-largest party in the coalition, exited, leaving the government with approximately 255 seats, barely a majority in the 500-seat House of Representatives.

Legal Challenges and Investigations

The leaked recording has triggered investigations against Ms. Patten Tan, negatively impacting her approval ratings. The Constitutional Court is set to consider a plea for her resignation. Senators are petitioning for a probe into her alleged breach of the Constitution and ethical standards. She also faces a potential no-confidence vote in parliament.

Thaksin Shinawatra's Scrutiny

Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is also under scrutiny. He faces trial over accusations of insulting the monarchy in a 2015 interview with a South Korean newspaper, potentially facing up to 15 years in prison. The Supreme Court may re-sentence him regarding a decision that allowed him to serve an 8-year sentence for abuse of power in a hospital instead of jail.

Military Coup Risk

The risk of a military coup in Thailand is a constant concern, described as "never zero." Since 1932, Thailand has experienced at least 13 successful military coups, with the last two occurring in 2006 and 2014. Political observers are concerned due to policies, street protests, and mounting pressure on the government.

Thaksin's Deal and Its Consequences

Thaksin's return to Thailand after 15 years of self-exile involved a deal that allowed his Pheu Thai party to govern while sharing power. Part of the deal included him staying in a police hospital, avoiding jail time. This arrangement is now being scrutinized by the Supreme Court. The terms of this deal are constantly changing, keeping him under pressure.

Dissatisfaction and Dysfunction

Beyond political maneuvering, there's widespread dissatisfaction among the Thai population due to a sliding economy, declining tourism, and a general sense of dysfunction. People feel "stuck" due to political inertia.

Thaksin's Gambit and Potential Outcomes

Thaksin's return and his daughter's involvement in government are seen as a gambit to cement his political legacy. However, his perceived decline in political brokering skills could endanger himself, his daughter's government, and Thai democracy. Some elements might prefer to dismantle the entire system to remove Thaksin.

Conclusion

Thailand faces a precarious political situation. The first half of the year seemed calm, but the latter half is expected to be turbulent. Observers hope for cooler heads to prevail as the Constitutional Court decides on the case against Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin. Thailand also faces external issues, requiring stability and focus.