Tesla Bleeds -4%, Palantir Revolt Leaked — The Day the Earnings Rally Broke

Key Concepts

• Trading Strategies: Scalping, momentum trading, "wetting the beak" (taking partial profits), and managing "FOMO" (Fear Of Missing Out).
• Technical Indicators: VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), 10 EMA (Exponential Moving Average), topping/bottoming tail candles, and support/resistance levels.
• Market Dynamics: Implied Volatility (IV) compression, short-sell restrictions (SSR), and the impact of geopolitical headlines on oil (USO) and the NASDAQ.
• Corporate Actions: Voluntary employee buyouts, IPOs, and legal settlements (e.g., Skills Platform vs. Papaya Gaming).
• Sector Trends: AI infrastructure spending, semiconductor demand (TXN), and the "SAS-geddon" (software-as-a-service sector weakness).

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1. Market Overview and Trading Performance

The midday show focused on a volatile market environment driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a heavy earnings calendar.

• Key Trades: The hosts successfully traded SMR (NuScale Power) as an "all-day trender," utilizing patience to reload positions. TRT (Testosterone Replacement Therapy - ticker used as a nickname) and Burrow were highlighted as successful small-cap plays.
• Missed Opportunities: The hosts noted a missed long opportunity on the NASDAQ/QQQs earlier in the session, emphasizing the importance of entering at the lower end of a range rather than chasing breakouts.
• Small-Cap Volatility: SKLZ (Skills Platform) became the focal point of the afternoon following a $420 million jury verdict against Papaya Gaming. The stock experienced multiple circuit-breaker halts, with the hosts emphasizing the risks of trading such "multiple-halters."

2. Geopolitical Impact and Oil (USO)

Geopolitical headlines regarding the US, Israel, and Iran caused significant intraday volatility.

• Headlines: Reports of Iranian oil tankers breaking blockades, potential war resumption, and conflicting reports regarding air defense activity in Tehran created a "headline-sensitive" market.
• Market Reaction: USO (United States Oil Fund) showed an inverse correlation with the NASDAQ at times; when oil spiked on war fears, the broader market often dipped. The hosts noted that the market is currently "pricing in" the conflict, leading to choppy, headline-driven price action.

3. Earnings and Corporate News

• Tesla (TSLA): Discussed the earnings miss and the $25 billion capex surge. The hosts expressed skepticism, suggesting the actual cost for AI/Terra Fab infrastructure would likely exceed $100 billion.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Reported a $18 billion AI investment in Australia and a voluntary employee buyout program (the first in 51 years), impacting roughly 7% of the workforce.
• Texas Instruments (TXN): Praised for a strong report, with the hosts noting that TXN dominates the "basic chip" market (appliances, industrial) rather than the high-end AI chip space, providing a stable growth leg.
• Service Now (NOW): Highlighted as a catalyst for the broader software sector sell-off ("SAS-geddon"), with the market punishing the stock despite decent growth, as investors demand proof of AI monetization over mere adoption.
• Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) / Paramount: Discussed the acquisition approval, with the hosts criticizing the deal as an overpayment for legacy cable assets that are losing relevance in the streaming era.

4. Methodologies and Frameworks

• The "FOMO" Lesson: Neil provided a lesson on FOMO, explaining how missing an "A+ setup" on one stock (Intel) led to distracted trading on another (Tesla). He argued that traders must grade themselves on their process rather than just the final P&L.
• Risk Management: The hosts emphasized using "mock orders" or limit orders during high-volatility halts to avoid getting trapped. They also discussed the danger of "overtrading" when trying to recover losses, advising a pause when the market stops respecting established technical levels.

5. Notable Quotes

• "The lazy part would be me just saying, 'But you made money on the thing you paid attention to.' That's not true. It's not good because I had a better setup... and I didn't have it because I was FOMO trading." — Neil (on the importance of process over outcome).
• "They're around for a good time, they're typically not around for a long time." — Joey (regarding volatile small-cap stocks like SKLZ).

Synthesis/Conclusion

The session highlighted a market defined by "headline sensitivity" and a rotation away from software-as-a-service (SAS) toward industrial and semiconductor plays. The hosts successfully navigated the day by focusing on high-volume small-cap movers while maintaining a cautious, disciplined approach to the broader market's volatility. The primary takeaway for traders is to remain patient, avoid chasing momentum during headline-driven spikes, and prioritize process-oriented trading to avoid the psychological traps of FOMO.