Ten years on: has the Paris climate deal delivered? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Paris Agreement: A legally binding international treaty adopted in 2015 by almost every country to limit global temperature rise to below 2°C and aim for 1.5°C.
• Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): Country-specific goals for emission reduction that each nation is required to submit and update every five years under the Paris Agreement.
• Climate Neutrality: The state of achieving a balance between greenhouse gas emissions produced and greenhouse gas emissions removed from the atmosphere.
• Net Zero: A pledge by companies or countries to not emit more climate-warming gases into the air than they remove.
• Collective Action Problem: A situation where individual actors have an incentive to act in their own self-interest, but doing so leads to a worse outcome for the group as a whole.
• Renewable Energy: Energy derived from natural sources that are replenished at a higher rate than they are consumed, such as solar and wind power.

The Paris Agreement: A Landmark Treaty and Its Evolution

The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, was a landmark moment of global unity, with nearly every country agreeing to limit global temperature rise to below 2°C and aiming for 1.5°C through a legally binding treaty. Kristoff Bald of a German nonprofit was present during its signing.

However, a decade later, the sentiment has shifted, marked by headlines such as a country withdrawing from the "unfair one-sided Paris climate accord" and global warming exceeding 1.5°C, with Europe experiencing unusually high temperatures. This raises the question of whether the Paris plan has failed.

How the Paris Agreement Works: Flexibility and Voluntary Goals

The core mechanism of the Paris Agreement involves each country setting its own emission reduction goals (Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs) and updating them every five years with increasing ambition.

Key Points:

• The treaty does not specify what these goals should entail.
• There are no penalties for non-compliance.
• Each country voluntarily submits its goals, with no guarantee that the collective effort will be sufficient.
• Experts suggest that countries could claim they are doing enough and blame others for falling behind.

Example: The EU's actions were deemed insufficient by analysts in 2021, yet its vice president asserted their ambition and clear path to climate neutrality by 2050.

The paradox of the agreement lies in its flexibility. The lack of strict rules was crucial for its ratification. Had the Paris Agreement been more prescriptive, countries might not have signed it. Instead, the agreement encourages countries to align climate policy with their national priorities.

Linking Climate Action to Domestic Benefits: The Indian Case Study

India exemplifies how climate action can be driven by domestic benefits. Growing problems of air pollution and traffic congestion in Indian cities are so dire that politicians are motivated to address them.

Process:

• India is accelerating progress towards electric vehicles.
• This is partly driven by the ambition to become competitive in new technologies.
• The goal is to create more livable cities, which also has the effect of reducing emissions.

The fundamental fallacy identified is the belief that countries will act more due to the global existential crisis. Instead, the argument is that countries will increase their climate action when they find creative ways to do so while achieving their own interests, such as job creation, improving local air quality, and gaining competitive advantages in certain economies. This is where the Paris Agreement has "quietly reshaped the world."

The Rise of the Net Zero Narrative and Decarbonization

A significant legacy of the Paris Agreement is the "net zero narrative." This concept, now prevalent across companies, universities, organizations, and governments, involves pledging not to emit more climate-warming gases than are removed from the atmosphere. The underlying question for many is "how do they decarbonize?"

Example: Switching from power generated by polluting coal plants to clean energy sources.

However, decarbonization presents challenges for certain industries. For instance, the conventional method of producing steel from iron ore requires coal, which produces carbon. Some individuals and groups resist quitting coal, as seen in a statement aiming to "put the miners back to work."

The Business Case for New Technology: Renewables vs. Fossil Fuels

There's a contrast between those advocating for continued reliance on fossil fuels and those embracing 21st-century technology. The latter group champions cutting-edge solar panels and wind turbines.

Key Data/Facts:

• Coal is currently the cheapest fossil fuel at approximately 7 US cents per kilowatt-hour.
• Solar energy costs only 4 cents per kilowatt-hour.
• Onshore wind energy costs 3 cents per kilowatt-hour.

This cost advantage has created a strong business case for new technologies.

China's Example:

• In 2024, China saved over 179 billion US dollars by reducing its reliance on oil, gas, and coal.
• The country has massively deployed renewables, including the world's largest solar park.
• Experts suggest that China's carbon emissions may have already peaked and are now declining.

Globally, investment in clean energy now outpaces investment in fossil fuels by a ratio of two to one.

Conclusion: Progress, Challenges, and Hope

The transition to renewable energy is now considered inevitable, and the Paris Agreement played a role in signaling this inevitability. While the results are not precisely what scientists aimed for 10 years ago (a projected 2.6°C rise if all promises are kept, which is still too high), there is hope.

Since 2015, public support for climate policies has grown, with over two-thirds of people globally advocating for more action. The question remains: is the Paris Agreement effectively saving the planet?