Tehran signals mass crackdown despite mass protests and threats from Trump | DW News

Iran Protests: A Deep Dive into Unrest, Repression, and Potential Interventions

Key Concepts:

• Grassroots Movement: Protests originating from widespread public discontent, not directed by a specific organization.
• Internet Blackout: State-imposed restriction of internet access to control information flow.
• Starlink: Satellite internet constellation developed by SpaceX, providing internet access in areas with limited connectivity.
• Oil Sanctions Enforcement: Measures to restrict a country’s oil revenue, often through confiscation of tankers.
• Cyber Command & Control Disablement: Utilizing cyberattacks to disrupt the operational capabilities of security forces.
• Azadi Network: A grassroots organization supporting marginalized groups in Iran.
• Resa Pahlavi: Son of the last Shah of Iran, currently living in exile and seen by some as a potential opposition leader.

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I. Escalating Protests and Regime Response

The report details ongoing, defiant protests in Iran, fueled by a collapsing economy and a sharp decline in the Iranian currency. Protesters are openly challenging the clerical regime, chanting slogans like, “This country will not be a real homeland until the clerics are laid to rest.” The regime initially acknowledged public anger but quickly resorted to a brutal crackdown, resulting in dozens of reported deaths and widespread arrests. A near-total internet blackout has been imposed to suppress information and hinder organization, though Elon Musk’s Starlink system has enabled some footage to reach the outside world.

The Iranian regime accuses protesters of being manipulated by “foreign enemies,” specifically referencing the US President Donald Trump. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei directly accused protesters of attempting to please Trump by “ruining their own streets.”

II. US Response and Potential Pressure Points

Former President Trump has threatened Iran against using excessive force against protesters and offered US assistance, stating on Truth Social, “Iran is looking at freedom perhaps like never before. The USA stands ready to help.” Benon Ben Tleblau, Senior Director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, outlines several options for Washington to exert pressure on Tehran. He emphasizes that Trump “really does have all the cards” – diplomatic, informational, intelligence, military, and economic.

Ben Tleblau specifically advocates for replicating the oil sanctions enforcement model used with Venezuela, suggesting the confiscation of tankers used by Iran to sell oil to China. He also proposes a cyber strategy to “disable the command and control” of Iranian security forces, effectively blinding them without resorting to kinetic military action. He highlights the significance of Iranians disabling surveillance cameras as a demonstration of their resistance.

The report raises the question of why the US hasn’t prioritized restoring internet access to Iranians, despite possessing the capability. Ben Tleblau argues this is not merely charity but a strategic move to support a “pro-American” population and counter an “anti-American regime.”

III. Internal Dynamics and the Role of Opposition Figures

The report highlights a striking contradiction within Iran: a fundamentally anti-American government contrasted with a largely pro-American populace. Protesters have even been observed renaming streets after Trump and displaying his image, hoping for intervention. Trump’s previous support for Iranian protesters, particularly a tweet from January 2020, remains highly visible and popular within Iran, being the most liked tweet in Persian Twitter history.

The role of Resa Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah, is also discussed. He is increasingly recognized as a key opposition figure, with his name chanted during protests. Ben Tleblau notes a growing trend of Iranian nationalism correlating with the failure of the Islamic Republic, leading to increased willingness to invoke the Pahlavi family’s name. The report suggests the internet blackout is partly aimed at suppressing the impact of Pahlavi’s call for a massive turnout, which served as a “tipping point” by linking external opposition with domestic street power.

IV. The Severity of the Crackdown and the Protesters’ Resolve

Nagin Sherakaya, founder of the Azadi Network, paints a grim picture of the current situation, describing a “dire” crackdown with a countrywide communication shutdown. She reports that security forces are using live ammunition, resulting in numerous casualties, particularly among young protesters (ages 15-16). Precise death tolls are unavailable due to the information blackout, but reports from cities like Zer indicate a high number of casualties.

Sherakaya emphasizes that the economic collapse and widespread corruption have left Iranians with “nothing to lose,” fueling their willingness to continue protesting despite the extreme risks. She notes a shift in the narrative, with people now prioritizing change over personal safety.

V. Potential for Regime Change and External Influence

Sherakaya suggests that Trump’s actions have “changed the table” and altered the dynamics of the situation. She indicates that factions within the Iranian government may be exploring potential succession plans for the Supreme Leader, recognizing the threat posed by continued protests and potential US intervention. The Supreme Leader’s 37-year rule and his concern for the legacy of the Islamic Republic are key factors in this consideration.

Regarding Resa Pahlavi, Sherakaya acknowledges his prominence as a potential alternative but questions his ability to establish a viable governing system. She notes he needs to demonstrate a clear plan for running the country.

VI. Data and Statistics

• Currency Decline: The report cites a “sharp decline” in Iran’s currency as a key driver of the protests.
• Price Increase: The price of eggs reportedly rose by 300% overnight, illustrating the economic hardship.
• Casualties: “Dozens” of protesters have been killed, though the exact number remains unknown due to the internet blackout.
• Protester Age: A significant proportion of protesters are young, with many being 15-16 years old.
• Trump’s Tweet: A tweet from January 2020 is the most liked tweet in Persian Twitter history.

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Conclusion:

The situation in Iran is highly volatile, characterized by escalating protests, a brutal regime crackdown, and the potential for external intervention. The US holds significant leverage, with options ranging from economic sanctions and cyber warfare to restoring internet access. The internal dynamics within Iran are complex, with a pro-American populace challenging an anti-American government and the emergence of potential opposition leaders like Resa Pahlavi. The protesters’ unwavering resolve, despite facing extreme risks, suggests that the unrest is likely to continue, potentially leading to significant political change. The unpredictable nature of former President Trump’s response adds another layer of uncertainty to the unfolding events.