Tehran partially lifts blackout as report says up to 12,000 killed by the regime | DW News

Iran Protests: Death Toll, Crackdown, and International Response

Key Concepts:

• Anti-Government Protests: Nationwide demonstrations in Iran sparked by underlying socio-economic and political grievances.
• Internet Blackout: A deliberate disruption of internet access by the Iranian government to control information flow.
• Starlink: A satellite internet constellation providing connectivity despite government restrictions.
• Lethal Force: The use of excessive and deadly force by Iranian security forces against protesters.
• "Fighting God" (Muaharebeh): A charge under Iranian Sharia law carrying the death penalty, increasingly used against protesters.
• IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps): A powerful military organization in Iran, accused of brutal suppression of protests.
• Iran Human Rights (NGO): A non-governmental organization documenting human rights violations in Iran.

Escalating Violence and Death Toll

The report begins with a stark assessment of the escalating violence in Iran following nationwide anti-government protests. Activists report a death toll of at least 2,000 since the demonstrations began nearly three weeks prior. This figure is significantly higher than official accounts and underscores the severity of the crackdown. Visual evidence, including a video from outside the Kari Zach Forensic Medical Center near Tehran, depicts rows of body bags and grieving families searching for loved ones. The date of the video is unconfirmed due to the ongoing internet blackout.

The Iranian government’s attempts to control information are highlighted, specifically their efforts to block access to the internet, beginning on January 8th, marking the longest complete shutdown in Iran’s history. Despite this, individuals are circumventing the restrictions using Starlink terminals, prompting strong condemnation from the Iranian government, which views Starlink’s operation without authorization as a threat. A law has been passed threatening users with espionage charges, and attempts to jam the Starlink signal are underway.

Conflicting Death Toll Estimates & Scale of Killings

The report addresses the difficulty in verifying information coming out of Iran, citing conflicting death toll estimates. United Against Nuclear Iran suggests as many as 12,000 may have been killed. However, the reporter notes that footage, testimonials from those who have left Iran (primarily to Turkey due to flight cancellations), and limited phone calls from within the country indicate a massive scale of killings, particularly on January 8th and 9th. In the town of Rash, 200 people were reportedly killed, and even official sources estimate 1,200 deaths in Tehran alone. Given the protests spanned over 100 cities, the total death toll is likely in the thousands, a view echoed by the British Foreign Minister.

The regime’s claim of no protests on Tuesday is met with skepticism, acknowledging that the intense violence may have instilled fear, but also noting that potential US intervention could influence protesters’ actions.

Case of Fon Sultani and the Threat of Execution

The report focuses on the case of Fon Sultani, a 26-year-old protester arrested in Karaj, facing a potential execution. Cameron Martin, an associate professor of international relations at the University of Sussex, explains that Sultani was arrested at home by unidentified security officials, denied access to a lawyer, and sentenced to death on the charge of "fighting God" (Muaharebeh) – a crime punishable by death under Iranian Sharia law. Martin notes the appointment of "courageous and experienced judges" to expedite trials and issue death sentences, suggesting a wave of executions is imminent. The lack of transparency and due process in these trials is a major concern.

Brutality and Crackdown: A Historical Perspective

Mahmud Amir Mogadam, director of Iran Human Rights, provides further insight into the situation. His organization has documented at least 734 protester deaths, but acknowledges the actual number is likely much higher. He details the difficulties in gathering information due to the internet shutdown, relying on sources from hospitals, families, and individuals using Starlink or accessing signals near borders. Mogadam emphasizes that this crackdown is more extensive and brutal than previous uprisings, notably the "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests, where the internet was not completely shut down for days. He cites evidence of security forces using live ammunition and machine guns.

Mogadam draws a parallel to the Syrian civil war, noting the IRGC’s role in suppressing dissent and preserving the Assad regime, suggesting a similar strategy is being employed in Iran. He highlights the regime’s desperation and its willingness to use extreme force to maintain power.

International Response and Potential Impact

The report examines the international response, including US President Donald Trump’s encouragement of protesters and promise of “help.” Mogadam acknowledges that Iranian people initiated the protests independently but appreciate international attention and support. However, he cautions that statements of support alone may not significantly impact the situation, as protesters are risking their lives regardless.

Mogadam advocates for stronger international action, including sanctions against institutions involved in the crackdown, listing the IRGC as a terrorist organization, and recognizing the demands of the Iranian people for a democratic system and free elections, drawing a comparison to the international response to apartheid in South Africa.

The report notes Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s assessment that the days of Iran’s leadership are numbered, a statement Mogadam supports, arguing that the regime lacks legitimacy and is fighting for survival. He warns that the IRGC is a brutal force capable of committing crimes against humanity.

Notable Quotes:

• Cameron Martin: “...this young person…has been sentenced to death um on charges of uh fighting God Muarab as it's called in in Persian Arabic word coming from Sharia law and it's the um the the the charge which always carries a death penalty in Iranian legal system.”
• Mahmud Amir Mogadam: “You see um one side is what the regime in Iran doing. The other side is what Iranian people are demanding. I think it's also the time to recognize the demands by Iranian people. They are calling for a democratic system, calling for free and fair elections.”
• Mahmud Amir Mogadam: “We should keep in mind that the revolutionary guards, they were the same who saved Bashar al-Assad in 2011…And at that time they managed to save Assad by killing thousands of Syrians and they are that's what they are trying to do in Iran. Now”

Synthesis/Conclusion:

The situation in Iran is dire, characterized by escalating violence, a severe crackdown on dissent, and a deliberate attempt to control information. The death toll is likely in the thousands, and the threat of mass executions looms large. While international condemnation and support for the protesters are welcome, stronger action is needed to hold the Iranian regime accountable and protect civilians. The protests represent a fundamental challenge to the legitimacy of the current government, and the coming days and weeks will be critical in determining the future of Iran. The report underscores the bravery of Iranian citizens risking their lives to resist oppression and the importance of continued documentation and advocacy by organizations like Iran Human Rights.