Tasmania's snap election delivers another hung parliament | 7.30

Key Concepts:

• Minority Government
• Tasmanian Election Result
• Liberal Party, Labor Party, Greens, Independents
• No Confidence Motion
• Crossbench Negotiations
• AFL Stadium
• Hare-Clark Electoral System
• Coalition Building

Tasmanian Election Outcome and Implications

The video discusses the recent Tasmanian election, which resulted in a hung parliament, mirroring the previous election results and leaving no party with a clear majority (18 seats). The Liberal Party, led by Jeremy Rockliff, secured at least 14 seats, while Labor has nine, potentially reaching ten. The Greens hold five seats, and independents have four, with three seats still in doubt. This outcome is described as déjà vu or "Groundhog Day" for Tasmania.

Party Positions and Negotiations

• Liberals (Jeremy Rockliff): Claimed victory and intends to seek recommission to form government, but needs to secure support from crossbenchers. Rockliff stated, "I intend to visit the governor and ask her to recommission my government so we can get on with the job for Tasmania." He mentions having "good" initial conversations with crossbenchers. The Liberals are not willing to work with the Greens.
• Labor (Dean Winter): Initiated the no-confidence motion that triggered the election but experienced a swing against them (approximately 3%) and their worst primary vote share in state history. Winter has opened discussions with the crossbench. He stated, "We've opened a line of discussion with uh with the crossbench and we'll make sure that they understand where we stand," but asserted they won’t engage in "horse trading on policy."
• Greens: Hold a crucial position in potential negotiations but oppose the proposed AFL stadium, creating a potential obstacle.
• Independents: Hold the balance of power. David O'Byrne, a former Labor leader now independent, is open to working with both sides. Independent Peter George emphasizes working with whoever presents the best proposition for Tasmania, expressing distrust of agreements with the major parties. George stated, "Whoever can come up with the best proposition that will be of real benefit to Tasmania, I will work with them," and added, "I don't plan to sign an agreement because frankly with those old parties, the agreement is only worthwhile worth what it is until they tear it up."

Key Issues and Sticking Points

The proposed AFL stadium is a significant point of contention. While both major parties support it, the Greens and three of the four elected independents oppose it. This could complicate coalition-building efforts. As stated, "The truth of the matter is the stadium is not necessary. It's unwanted quite clearly because I've been elected and that's one of the policies that I've been elected on or positions."

The Hare-Clark System and Minority Governments

Tasmania's Hare-Clark electoral system is identified as a factor contributing to the prevalence of minority governments. It ensures proportional representation, leading to situations where major parties struggle to achieve majority vote shares. Under the Hare-Clark system it "sort of exaggerates the effect uh that you get".

Expert Commentary on Coalition Building

Kate Crowley, an expert on minority government and Green politics, argues that Labor leader Dean Winter must engage with the Greens despite his stated reluctance. She emphasized, "Everyone knows that he needs to talk to the Greens. He can't get anywhere without talking to the Greens." The video suggests that major parties need to adapt to coalition-building strategies and learn from experiences in other regions. "I think they really need to start thinking more about um schooling themselves into how to build coalitions."

Synthesis/Conclusion

The Tasmanian election resulted in a hung parliament, with no party securing a majority. Negotiations with crossbenchers, particularly independents and the Greens, will be crucial for forming a government. The proposed AFL stadium presents a significant challenge due to opposition from the Greens and some independents. Tasmania's Hare-Clark electoral system contributes to the frequency of minority governments, requiring parties to develop coalition-building skills. The outcome highlights the ongoing challenges in Tasmanian politics and the need for parties to adapt to a landscape where securing a clear majority is increasingly difficult.