Tanzania's President Samia Suluhu Hassan declared winner with nearly 98% support

Key Concepts

• Electoral Commission Declaration: Samia Suluhu Hassan declared winner with approximately 98% of the vote.
• Opposition Claims: Allegations of hundreds killed by security services, with some reports suggesting figures around 500.
• Government Defense: Justification of response to protests, condemning unrest as "unacceptable, uncivilized and unpatriotic."
• Excessive Force Denial: Tanzania's foreign minister denies claims of excessive force and high death tolls.
• Pre-election Arrests: Arrest of a popular online influencer and Tundisu (strongest challenger) on treason charges.
• Exclusion of Rivals: Major opposition candidates barred from running, leading to a virtually unopposed election for Hassan.
• Credibility of Election: Questioned due to exclusion of rivals and high victory margin, compared to Rwanda.
• Youth-led Protests (Gen Z): Frustration among young Tanzanians due to long-term single-party rule and growing inequality.
• Demographic Shift: Tanzania's rapid demographic growth and increasing inequality as drivers of youth discontent.
• Continental Pattern: Youth-driven movements and protests observed across Africa (Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique).
• Government Response to Unrest: Suppression tactics including curfews and internet shutdowns.
• Future Scenarios: Potential for protracted crisis versus dialogue and reform.
• Economic Imperatives: Hassan's government needing investors and stability for development projects and job creation.

Election Outcome and Government Response

Tanzania's electoral commission has declared incumbent President Samia Suluhu Hassan the winner of the recent presidential election with approximately 98% of the ballots. The government has defended its handling of the protests and unrest that followed the election. The government stated, "We thank the security apparatus for ensuring that all the chaos witnessed did not alter or stop the election process." They further condemned the incidents, particularly in cities like Dar es Salaam, Arusha, Mwanza, and Tanga, as "unacceptable, uncivilized and unpatriotic," emphasizing that "Patriots build their countries, not destroy it."

Opposition Allegations and Government Rebuttals

In contrast to the official narrative, the opposition claims that hundreds of people have been killed by security services. Tanzania's foreign minister, speaking to Al Jazeera, denied that security forces used excessive force and refuted opposition claims of at least 700 deaths during a police crackdown.

Pre-election Political Climate and Electoral Process

Anger against President Hassan reportedly intensified after a popular online influencer was arrested prior to the election. Hassan ran in a race where her strongest challenger, Tundisu, was arrested and charged with treason. The candidate from the second-largest opposition party was also barred from participating.

Analysis of Electoral Credibility and Legitimacy

Alex Vines, Africa Director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, expressed skepticism regarding the credibility of the election. He noted that the exclusion of the two main candidates and the 98% victory margin make the election "not credible," drawing a parallel to the election of President Kagame in Rwanda. Vines suggested that while the opposition's death toll figure might be high, a credible figure of around 500 deaths during the demonstrations is still an "extraordinary amount of people to be killed." He acknowledged that while some demonstrations were linked to politics, others were attributed to criminality.

Shift in Public Sentiment and Youth Mobilization

Vines suggested that the current unrest represents a deeper shift in public sentiment in Tanzania, particularly driven by "Generation Z." This generation, having only known one party in government since independence in 1961, is reportedly frustrated. Vines did not anticipate this level of violence, given Tanzania's historical political stability compared to its neighbors. He compared the situation to the three months of violence following elections in Mozambique in October of the previous year, though he noted that opposition leaders were not barred from running in Mozambique. This crackdown is described as "very, very serious." It is also highlighted that this is the first time Samia Hassan has been elected, as she previously took power in 2021 following the death of her predecessor, without an election.

The transcript also points out that many demonstrations in Tanzania have been youth-led. Vines believes this is the beginning of a broader youth-driven movement, similar to those seen in Kenya and Madagascar. This is attributed to Tanzania's rapid demographic growth and increasing inequality, leading many young Tanzanians to feel "left behind." This trend is seen as part of a broader continental pattern, with examples of Generation Z leading demonstrations in Tanzania, unconstitutional changes (coups), and violence in Madagascar, Mozambique, and Kenya.

Future Scenarios and Government Sustainability

Regarding possible scenarios for Tanzania, Vines does not foresee the violence continuing in the same way as in Mozambique, as the military is now intervening, and measures like curfews and internet shutdowns have been implemented. He anticipates suppression in the short term, followed by some opening up of dialogue. Vines argues that the current pattern is "not sustainable for Tanzania." The government of Samia Hassan will require investors and stability, necessitating a multipolar approach rather than relying solely on China or Gulf States. The government is seeking international capital for large development projects aimed at creating jobs.

Conclusion

The summary highlights a contested election in Tanzania where the incumbent president secured a landslide victory amidst allegations of political exclusion and violent suppression of dissent. The analysis points to a significant shift in public sentiment, driven by a frustrated youth demographic facing economic inequality and a lack of political representation. While the government has employed strong suppression tactics, the long-term sustainability of this approach is questioned, with a potential need for dialogue and reform to attract investment and ensure stability.