Taiwan minister: 'European countries need to pay more attention' | DW News

Key Concepts

• China's Geopolitical Ambition: China's stated goal to dominate the Indo-Pacific region and potentially replace US leadership globally.
• Taiwan's Strategic Importance: Taiwan's critical role in the global semiconductor industry and its position as a democratic bulwark against Chinese expansion.
• Indo-Pacific Security Dynamics: The increasing military buildup and assertive actions by China, leading to heightened tensions and increased defense spending by regional players like Japan and South Korea.
• Diplomatic Blitz: Taiwan's proactive diplomatic efforts in Europe to garner support and highlight shared interests with democratic nations.
• Semiconductor Industry: Taiwan's dominance in the production of advanced semiconductors, making it a crucial component of the global economy and a potential target for China.
• Status Quo: The desire to maintain the current political and security balance in the Indo-Pacific region, preventing military conflict.
• Information Manipulation: China's alleged use of disinformation and influence operations to sow division within democratic societies.

Taiwan's Diplomatic Offensive in Europe

Taiwan's Deputy Foreign Minister, Francis Wu, is undertaking a diplomatic tour of Europe, including Germany, Belgium, and France. This initiative is driven by Taiwan's concern over China's escalating geopolitical ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region. Minister Wu's primary objective is to foster greater dialogue and exchange with European countries, emphasizing that they too have significant interests in the region's stability. The goal is to collaborate on safeguarding democracy, liberty, and a better future for the democratic world and humanity.

The Nature of the Threat from China

Minister Wu articulates that China's ambition extends beyond Taiwan, with countries like Japan also facing its assertive stance. He cites China's military parade in September, marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, as a cause for concern. The presence of leaders from Russia, North Korea, and Iran alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping, and the display of extensive military hardware, particularly the demonstration of a full nuclear triad (air-launched, land-launched, and sea-launched missiles), are viewed by Taiwan as indicative of China's aggressive intentions.

Key Points on China's Military Buildup:

• Daily Incursions: Taiwan experiences daily incursions by Chinese fighter jets into its Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Last year, nearly 4,000 such incursions were recorded.
• Regional Impact: Japan also faces similar incursions, particularly around the Senkaku Islands (known as Diaoyu Islands in China).
• Naval Dominance: China possesses the world's largest navy, with over 400 warships, surpassing the US fleet of 300.
• Aircraft Carriers: China has commissioned its third aircraft carrier, enabling potential attacks on Taiwan from its eastern side, a development that also concerns South Korea.
• Nuclear Arsenal Expansion: China has significantly increased its nuclear warhead count from approximately 200 to 600.
• Nuclear Submarine Development: South Korea is reportedly seeking US and South Korean approval for its own nuclear submarines, and Japan is considering similar capabilities, potentially increasing its defense budget to 2% of GDP and reforming its Self-Defense Forces into a more robust army.

Minister Wu downplays the immediate threat of nuclear weapon use by China, citing China's official declaration not to be the first to use them. He believes China's nuclear expansion is more about projecting its status as a rising global power and its ambition to replace US leadership by 2049, the centenary of the People's Republic of China.

Taiwan's Defense Budget and Parliamentary Challenges

Taiwan is under pressure from the United States, similar to other allies, to increase its defense spending. President Lai's target is to reach 5% of GDP before 2030. However, achieving this goal faces challenges due to a lack of a parliamentary majority.

Key Points on Taiwan's Defense Budget:

• Public Support: Minister Wu asserts that there is significant public support for increasing the defense budget, even within the opposition KMT party. A poll indicated 60% support among KMT participants.
• Budgetary Progress: The initial defense budget of $20 billion USD for the current year was initially blocked by the opposition but later approved due to a citizen-initiated recall movement, demonstrating a unique aspect of Taiwanese democracy.
• Future Projections: The defense budget is projected to increase to $30 billion USD next year.
• Parliamentary Persuasion: Minister Wu believes that the opposition will eventually support increased defense spending if it garners widespread public approval, as opposition parties need to win elections.
• Pragmatic Approach: While acknowledging the 5% target, Minister Wu emphasizes reaching the 3.3% of GDP defense budget planned for next year as a crucial step, with efforts to achieve the 5% target thereafter.

Japan's Stance and Regional Alliances

The recent statement by Japan's new Prime Minister, Takayichi, regarding Taiwan's security has been met with some internal criticism in Japan for potentially provoking China. However, Taiwan views her statement as an accurate reflection of the geopolitical reality.

Key Points on Japan's Statement:

• Shared Security Concerns: Minister Wu agrees with Prime Minister Takayichi's assessment that if Taiwan's security is compromised, Japan's security will also be threatened.
• Strengthening Alliances: This shared understanding is seen as strengthening the alliance between Taiwan, Japan, and the US, forming a crucial bloc to counter China's geopolitical ambitions.
• Improved Situation: Taiwan views this alignment as a positive development compared to the past.

Taiwan's Appeal to Germany and Europe

Minister Wu is actively seeking to draw Germany and other European countries closer to Taiwan's position. He reiterates that China's geopolitical ambitions and military buildup are unnecessary, as no country in the region wishes to threaten China; rather, they seek cooperation.

Key Points for Germany and Europe:

• Maintaining Status Quo: The primary objective is to preserve the status quo in the Indo-Pacific, ensuring Taiwan's freedom and democracy.
• Diplomatic Conflict Management: Taiwan advocates for diplomatic solutions to prevent war, emphasizing that a military conflict would result in no winners.
• Economic Interdependence: Germany has significant investments in Taiwan, particularly in the semiconductor industry. Taiwan produces 60-70% of the world's semiconductors, with 95% of the most sophisticated chips and 100% of those for AI. These chips are essential for everyday items like mobile phones, cars, and medical equipment.
• Shared National Interest: Minister Wu argues that preventing war in the region is a shared national interest for both Germany and Taiwan.
• Raising Voices: He urges Germany to raise its voice internationally, particularly in forums like the G7, to advocate for the status quo and defend democracy and freedom of navigation. This advocacy does not necessarily imply military intervention but rather diplomatic and political pressure.

Navigating Divisions and Naivety

Regarding the differing opinions within the German government on how to approach China, Minister Wu acknowledges that such political diversity is normal in a democracy. However, he cautions against naivety, highlighting China's strategy of information manipulation and influence operations to divide democratic societies. Taiwan itself experiences similar challenges. He advises Germany to be pragmatic and consider the interests of Germany, democracy, and the future of the world when formulating its China policy. He points to China's dominance in sectors like the automotive and nuclear industries as examples of its assertive approach.