Taiwan evacuates thousands ahead of tropical storm Fung-wong's arrival | East Asia Tonight (Nov 11)

Key Concepts

• Tropical Storm Fun Wong: A severe tropical storm impacting Taiwan and potentially China's Fujian province, previously a super typhoon that caused significant damage and fatalities in the Philippines.
• COP 30 Climate Talks: International climate negotiations held in Brazil, focusing on urgent calls for unity and faster action to combat global warming.
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Emissions from human activities that trap heat in the atmosphere, contributing to climate change. China's emissions have held steady for 18 months.
• Anti-dumping Investigations: Trade investigations launched by countries to protect domestic industries from unfairly low-priced imports, with a global increase in such probes against China.
• Earth Observation (EO) Satellites: Satellites used to monitor Earth's atmosphere, land, and oceans, providing data for climate change mitigation and adaptation.
• Space Debris: Fragments of man-made objects in orbit that pose a risk to spacecraft.
• Shenzhou 20 Crew: Chinese astronauts whose return to Earth was delayed due to a suspected space debris strike on their capsule.
• Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): Climate targets submitted by countries under the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
• Carbon Trading: A market-based approach to reduce emissions by allowing companies to buy and sell permits to emit carbon dioxide.
• Data Centers: Facilities that house computer systems and associated components, such as telecommunications and storage systems.
• China Plus One Strategy: A supply chain diversification strategy adopted by companies to reduce reliance on China by establishing operations in other countries.
• Transshipment Penalties: Tariffs imposed on goods that are transshipped through a third country, aimed at preventing circumvention of trade duties.
• Singles Day: An annual shopping festival originating in China, now a global e-commerce event.
• Defense Technology Symposium: An event in Japan focused on strengthening the defense sector and promoting exports.

Severe Tropical Storm Fun Wong Impacts Taiwan and Philippines

Severe Tropical Storm Fun Wong, previously a super typhoon, has made landfall in Taiwan, bringing heavy rains to the island's mountainous east coast. The storm caused at least 18 fatalities in the Philippines after making landfall there on Sunday evening. While Fun Wong has lost intensity, its combination with the northeast monsoon is causing torrential rains in Taiwan. Authorities have issued a land warning and evacuated over 3,000 people, particularly in Hualien County, where a previous typhoon in September caused 18 deaths due to a barrier lake failure. This time, authorities have implemented early warning systems and deployed rescue teams. The storm's wide rain field poses risks of landslides, debris flows, and flash floods, especially in Hualien's rugged terrain. Coastal provinces in China are also taking precautions, recalling fishing boats and evacuating personnel. Guangdong province has activated its lowest level of a four-year emergency response.

COP 30 Climate Talks Open with Calls for Urgency Amidst US Absence

The COP 30 climate conference in Brazil has commenced with urgent calls for unity and accelerated action to combat global warming. UN Climate Chief emphasized the threat of fracturing international consensus to climate efforts. The United States is notably absent from the gathering, with President Donald Trump having previously dismissed climate science. The absence of the US and the approach of other developed nations have created an opportunity for developing countries to showcase their climate actions. Leaders at the talks are pushing for reduced carbon pollution. A new UN analysis suggests global greenhouse gas emissions could drop by 12% by 2035 from 2019 levels, an improvement from previous estimates.

China's Emissions and Climate Pledges

China's greenhouse gas emissions have remained steady for the past 18 months, according to analysis of official data by Carbon Brief. This trend, starting in March of the previous year, offers hope that China might see a decrease in its full-year CO2 emissions. Emissions from China's power sector, the largest source of CO2, were stable in the third quarter despite strong electricity demand, potentially due to a surge in green energy sources and a fall in emissions from transport fuel, cement, and steel production. In September, China committed to reducing economy-wide emissions from peak levels by 2035.

South Korea and Japan's Climate Targets

South Korea has approved a new, higher emission reduction target, aiming to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 53-61% from 2018 levels within the next decade. President Yoon Suk Yeol views the transition to a carbon-neutral society as essential for sustainable growth and plans to expand renewable energy use. Japan, in February, approved new targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 60% from 2013 levels by 2035. These targets, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are submitted to the UN every five years under the Paris Agreement.

China's Role in Global Climate Leadership

Belinda Sharper, China policy analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, discussed China's potential role in global climate leadership amidst the US withdrawal. She noted that China's emissions leveling off is significant, as it has contributed around 90% of global emissions growth in the last decade. However, China's current climate targets for 2035, aiming for a 7-10% reduction from peak levels, are not aligned with the Paris Agreement's need for closer to 30% reductions from current levels. While China positions itself as a stabilizing power and a provider of clean technology, it is not yet confidently stepping into a Western-style climate leadership role. Experts believe China can overachieve its targets, and there is anticipation for clarification on its trajectory for renewables and coal phasing down in its upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan.

Climate Finance and Adaptation Gap

A significant challenge in climate finance is the US withdrawal, which halted international climate finance. Traditional Western donors are also facing domestic financial constraints. Mobilizing the estimated $1.3 trillion in climate finance needed, with at least $300 billion committed by developed countries, is a key discussion at COP 30. While clean energy projects offer more direct returns, adaptation projects have more indirect benefits. Finding agreement on a common goal for adaptation finance and exploring non-traditional donors are crucial.

Global Carbon Trading Rules

China is joining a Brazil-led coalition to link carbon markets, a significant proposal at COP 30. Brazil's initiative aims to create a common standard for monitoring, reporting, and verification of carbon markets, which are currently incompatible. This move gains urgency following the EU's announcement of its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. While progress is expected, the linking of carbon markets is a complex process requiring extensive technical discussions.

Data Centers and AI's Climate Impact

The climate impact of rapid data center growth powering the region's digital future is a concern, though the electricity demand is often overestimated. In China, data center electricity consumption is expected to double over the next two years, but this is from a small base and represents only 3% of the additional electricity demand over the past three years. Efficiency gains from technological advancements are also contributing to mitigating this impact. Traditional industries still hold a much higher share of electricity and energy consumption, and thus emissions, requiring continued focus on their decarbonization.

Space-Based Earth Observation and its Climate Impact

A revolution in satellite and sensor technology, known as Earth Observation (EO), is transforming how we monitor and tackle climate change. Over 9,000 satellites currently orbit Earth, tracking weather, guiding navigation, and monitoring the environment, with this number projected to reach 60,000 by 2040. Missions like NISAR (US-India) will track ground changes, while the Biomass satellite (ESA) measures forest carbon storage. Methane Sat is identifying methane leaks from oil fields.

However, these tools may also contribute to climate change. Researchers estimate that by 2040, deorbiting satellites could release approximately 10,000 tons of aluminum oxide annually into the upper atmosphere. This debris buildup could raise temperatures by up to 1.5 degrees Celsius, disrupt wind patterns, and slow ozone recovery. Therefore, managing space activities sustainably is crucial for the planet's climate future.

Japan's Defense Sector Expansion and Economic Revitalization

Japan's new Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, is prioritizing economic revitalization through a multi-trillion yen stimulus package and investment in 17 key areas, including chips, ships, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, critical minerals, and defense. The government aims to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP and revise key national defense documents. Japan is also pushing to develop domestic defense technology and expand exports, moving away from its reliance on US imports and addressing concerns about its pacifist constitution. This initiative is seen as a way to strengthen security capabilities and drive economic growth.

China-Canada Relations and Trade Thaw

China has expressed readiness to resume exchanges and cooperation with Canada following a phone call between their foreign ministers. Beijing aims to strengthen communication and collaboration between diplomatic and commercial departments to address mutual concerns and restore coordination. This follows a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the APAC summit in South Korea, where trade issues were discussed, signaling a cautious thaw after years of strained relations. Ties had deteriorated following the 2018 arrest of a Chinese telecom executive in Vancouver and China's subsequent detention of two Canadians. Trade tensions also escalated with Ottawa imposing tariffs on Chinese steel and Beijing retaliating with duties on Canadian canola.

India-China Air Connectivity Resumes

A new direct flight route between Delhi and Guangzhou, operated by Indigo, has commenced after a five-year suspension. Indigo CEO Peter Ibis highlighted the route's significance for internationalization and the substantial population of both countries. The service is expected to cater to business travelers, students, and leisure traffic, with Indigo aiming to offer affordable fares. The airline is also exploring cargo capabilities and plans to expand its network to other Chinese cities, leveraging new aircraft like the Airbus 321 XLR for thinner routes. Indigo has also signed a commercial partnership with China Southern Airlines to enhance market access.

China's Shenzhou 20 Crew Return Progress

China reports steady progress in bringing home its Shenzhou 20 astronaut crew, whose return to Earth was postponed due to a suspected space debris strike on their capsule. The China Manned Space Agency stated that emergency plans are in effect, involving analysis, testing, and safety assessments for the updated return plan. The Tiangong space station is operating normally and can support two crews simultaneously. The Shenzhou 20 crew is currently assisting the Shenzhou 21 members with scientific experiments. A return date has not yet been announced.

Global Anti-Dumping Investigations Against China

Investigations into low-priced Chinese exports are increasing globally, with emerging economies joining the US in targeting key sectors. In the first half of the year, 79 anti-dumping and countervailing duty probes targeting Chinese goods were launched, more than tripling the number from three years prior. The US initiated 21 investigations, followed by India with 10. Brazil and Mexico have also increased scrutiny. This trend reflects a pushback against China's overcapacity and could lead to new trade friction. WTO rules allow countries to impose anti-dumping duties if foreign goods are sold below market value. Despite weak domestic demand, Chinese factories continue high-volume production.

Vietnam's Appeal Diminished by Transshipment Penalties

Vietnam has become a key gateway for Chinese companies exporting to the US, allowing them to sidestep tariffs. However, new transshipment penalties have diminished Vietnam's appeal. In August, Washington imposed a 20% tariff on imports from Vietnam and a 40% levy on Chinese goods transiting through third countries. These measures, seen as an effort to reduce Chinese content in supply chains, have slowed orders for companies like Hua Shores Plastics, which exports 90% of its products to the US. BYD Forklift, a subsidiary of a Chinese automaker, has also been forced to downsize operations due to its business partners being affected by tariffs. Some Chinese companies are considering relocating elsewhere, with a UN study suggesting tariffs could slash Vietnam's exports to the US by a fifth. Uncertainty over US policies is a major factor driving businesses away.