Syrian leader says army deploying to Sweida following ceasefire collapse | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Sectarian conflict in Southern Syria
• Sunni Bedouin militias vs. Druze fighters
• Ceasefire collapse
• Syrian Army redeployment to Sueda
• Israeli influence in Southern Syria (buffer zone)
• Interim Syrian government challenges
• Intercommunal tensions
• De-confliction mechanisms
• Trust-building with Druze community
• Role of external actors (US, Russia, Israel)
• HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) and new administration

Sectarian Violence and Ceasefire Collapse:

• Recent violence in Southern Syria between Sunni Bedouin militias and Druze fighters resulted in almost 600 deaths.
• A US-brokered ceasefire collapsed, leading to renewed conflict.
• The UN's Human Rights Agency (OHCHR) called for an end to the violence and accountability for those responsible, citing reports of summary executions, arbitrary killings, kidnappings, destruction of property, and looting in Sueda.

Caroline Rose's Analysis (New Lines Institute):

• Inevitable Conflict: Rose believes that the cycle of attacks and reprisals is "inevitable" due to longstanding tensions between communities (Bedouin tribes, Druze, prominent families) and the power vacuum after the regime's ouster.
• HTS Hesitation: Druze communities in Sueda have expressed opposition to HTS and its ideology.
• Preventative Strategy Needed: The conflict could be better managed with a preventative strategy from the new administration to address intercommunal tensions and revenge killings.
• Israeli Influence: Israel views Southern Syria as a buffer zone and seeks to project influence, co-opting Druze community members to contest the new administration. This necessitates a long-term strategy to build bridges between communities and the government.
• De-confliction Mechanism: A previous de-confliction mechanism, primarily maintained by Russia in collaboration with Druze communities, is no longer in place.
• Existential Threat: The scale of the recent violence indicates a potential for widespread intercommunal clashes, tensions, kidnappings, and revenge killings that could revive tensions in other regions (e.g., Latakia, Tartus, Kurdish communities). It undermines trust in the new government.

Yost Hilterman's Analysis (International Crisis Group):

• Government Forces: Distinguishes between the Syrian Army and the General Security (internal security force). Israel opposes the Syrian Army's deployment in the south.
• Internal Security Force: Argues that the General Security should handle domestic disputes, but it has not been particularly successful.
• New Regime Challenges: The current political system under President Ahmed Sher is still building up its security forces, which are an "assembly of armed groups" that toppled the previous regime. Unifying and professionalizing these forces will take time.
• Ethnic and Religious Mosaic: Syria's diverse ethnic and religious groups are clamoring for protection and fear the central government.
• US Mediation: The US is unlikely to get militarily involved but can politically mediate between the Syrian government and Israel.
• Trust-Building: Rebuilding trust with the Druze community is difficult due to recent atrocities and mistrust of the former jihadists in power. Local agreements, similar to those reached in Druze suburbs of Damascus, are possible.

Robert E. Hunter's Analysis (Former US Ambassador to NATO):

• Israeli Domination: The conflict is driven by Israel's desire to dominate Syria and control the south.
• Show of Force: Israel is demonstrating its influence over Syria's internal politics.
• Limited Control: President Ahmed al-Shar does not have full control, as evidenced by the ceasefire collapse.
• Calculating Relationships: Al-Shar must balance relationships with the Druze, Turkey, Arab states, and Israel.
• Sovereignty and Integrity: Al-Shar has a chance to build a country not based on repression, but he must assert some sovereignty against Israeli influence.
• Golan Heights: Israel's control of the Golan Heights is a factor in the situation.

Synthesis/Conclusion:

The situation in Southern Syria is characterized by a complex interplay of sectarian tensions, a weak interim government, and the influence of external actors, particularly Israel. The collapse of ceasefires and the potential for widespread intercommunal violence pose an existential threat to the stability of Syria. Building trust with the Druze community and establishing a de-confliction mechanism with Israel are crucial for preventing further escalation. The new administration faces significant challenges in unifying security forces, addressing intercommunal tensions, and asserting sovereignty in the face of external pressures.