Syria - The rise and fall of the Assad regime | DW Documentary

Key Concepts

• Bashar al-Assad's dictatorship and its propaganda
• Syrian Civil War and its consequences (deaths, refugees, economic collapse)
• HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) and its role in overthrowing Assad
• Role of international actors (Iran, Russia, USA, Turkey, Israel)
• Economic exploitation by the Assad regime (Asma al-Assad's influence, drug trade)
• Human rights abuses (chemical weapons attacks, torture, disappearances)
• Post-Assad Syria: challenges and opportunities

Assad's Propaganda and the Reality of His Rule

The video opens by highlighting how Bashar al-Assad's regime used propaganda to create a positive image of him as a caring leader. State television constantly broadcast images of him and his wife meeting with the Syrian people, projecting an image of love and respect. However, this facade concealed a brutal reality. The regime violently suppressed the 2011 uprising, leading to a devastating civil war. The conflict resulted in over 500,000 deaths, up to 200,000 disappearances, and millions of Syrians fleeing the country. The refugees left due to the danger to their lives, not for economic or lifestyle reasons. The video refers to Assad as the "butcher of Damascus," emphasizing the severity of his actions.

Economic Collapse and Dwindling Support

The Syrian economy suffered immensely under Assad's rule. Inflation rates were over 100% in 2020 and 2021, and 80% in 2022 and 2023, significantly impacting the purchasing power of Syrians. This economic hardship contributed to the dwindling support for Assad.

The HTS Offensive and the Fall of Assad

In December 2024, a coalition led by the Islamist group HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), headed by former al-Qaeda jihadist Abu Muhammad Al Jolani, launched an offensive. The rebels swiftly ended the dictatorship within 11 days, encountering minimal resistance. The country's national flags were changed from red (associated with Assad) to green (the color of the revolution).

Early Hopes and Unfulfilled Promises

Bashar al-Assad inherited the presidency in 2000 after his father's death. Initially, he was seen as a modernizer, an ophthalmologist by training, who announced economic reforms. His wife, Asma al-Assad, a British-Syrian educated in London and a former JP Morgan employee, contributed to the couple's Westernized image. However, the promised economic reforms never materialized.

The Arab Spring and the Regime's Brutal Response

Inspired by the Arab Spring, Syrians took to the streets in 2011 to express themselves. The regime responded with brutal force, killing over 5,000 civilians in a few months. Assad justified the violence by claiming to defend minorities, accusing the Sunni majority of instigating the uprising. However, the regime attacked the entire population, including Palestinian refugees in the Yarmouk camp.

Chemical Weapons Attacks and International Inaction

The Syrian regime used chemical weapons, including a sarin gas attack in Ghouta (Damascus suburb) in 2013, which killed over 1,300 people. Despite international condemnation, Assad faced only sanctions and was allowed to spread his version of events. A Syrian journalist, Basamadin, who documented the Ghouta massacre, was arrested and pressured to spread lies about the attack, blaming it on the White Helmets (Syrian Civil Defense).

The White Helmets and the Rise of Armed Opposition

The White Helmets, volunteer rescue workers, became heroes in the eyes of the population. The regime tried to discredit them by accusing them of terrorism. An armed opposition began to organize, forcing the regime to retreat.

Foreign Intervention: Iran and Russia

Damascus called on its Shiite ally Iran for help. Iran provided political, economic (oil supplies), and military support to the Assad regime. Russian President Vladimir Putin also sent warplanes and mercenaries.

The Rise and Fall of ISIS

In 2014, the Islamic State (ISIS) exploited the chaos of the civil war to establish its capital in Raqqa (northeastern Syria) and declare an Islamist caliphate. The West, initially supporting the Syrian opposition, shifted its priority to fighting ISIS. By 2019, officials declared the defeat of ISIS, but the group still exists in the Syrian desert.

Assad's Regained Control and Asma al-Assad's Economic Influence

Thanks to Russian and Iranian support, Bashar al-Assad regained control of two-thirds of the country by 2020. His wife, Asma al-Assad, brought the country's financial resources under her control through an informal economic council. This council invested in various sectors, ensuring Asma's personal gain from the remaining Syrian economy. Local figures known as "the ladies men" (oral alit in Arabic) ensured that no major real estate transactions occurred without their involvement.

Diversion of Humanitarian Aid

The Assad regime and its army diverted much of the humanitarian aid from the international community through organizations like the Red Crescent and the Syria Trust for Development. The United Nations had to distribute aid through these organizations, leading to redistribution and corruption. One program, "Jere Watan" (wounded man of the land), was ostensibly an NGO supporting wounded Syrians/soldiers but directly funded the Syrian army.

The Syrian Army's Weakened State and Maher al-Assad's Role

Bashar al-Assad showcased the army at sporting events to conceal its weakened state. Soldiers were often forcibly recruited and poorly paid (€15 a month). The army suffered heavy casualties. Assad's brother, Maher, commanded the fourth armored division (an elite unit) and played a key economic role, confiscating assets of opponents (a process called tish in Arabic). The fourth armored division was notorious for looting everything from buildings they entered.

The Drug Trade and the Assad Regime

Maher al-Assad used his control over the army to enter the lucrative drug business, flooding neighboring countries with narcotics (Captagon) to finance the regime. Between 300 and 400 million Captagon tablets have been seized annually since 2020. The Syrian regime earned an estimated two to three billion dollars a year from the drug trade.

The Idlib Region and the HTS

The inhabitants of occupied cities were forced to move to the rebel region of Idlib (northwestern Syria), controlled by the Islamist HTS. The HTS, a coalition of armed Islamist groups, broke away from al-Qaeda in 2016 and focused on a domestic political agenda in Idlib. They established a local authority with its own laws, police, army, and universities. The supply chain in Idlib worked well, largely thanks to Turkey's support.

Continued Attacks on Idlib and the "Double Strike" Strategy

Damascus and Russia continued their offensive against the rebel enclave, targeting hospitals and schools. The Russian army followed a "double strike" strategy, attacking the same location twice.

The 2023 Earthquakes and Assad's Exploitation

The earthquakes in February 2023 killed over 6,000 people in northwestern Syria. Bashar al-Assad posed with survivors in regime-controlled areas, attempting to renew his image as a savior. The earthquake provided an opportunity for Assad to regain political capital and for other states to justify renewed talks with him.

Normalization Efforts and Regional Politics

Some European countries began to call for a review of the European strategy towards Syria. In the summer of 2024, Italy announced it would send an ambassador to Syria, the first G7 country to resume diplomatic relations. Countries in the region wanted to counteract the influence of Russia and Iran. Assad was received with honor in Saudi Arabia, and Syria regained its seat in the Arab League in 2023.

Assad's Visit to China

Assad visited China for the first time since the start of the war, seeking new allies. However, the Saudis were disappointed with the Syrian regime's lack of engagement on the Captagon issue and other areas.

Israeli Attacks in Syria

After October 7th, 2023, Israel attacked Hamas's allies in Syria, weakening Hezbollah and Iranian militias. The attacks targeted military bases, Maher al-Assad's house, and the Iranian consulate in Damascus.

Poverty and Desperation in Syria

Despite the appearance of normalcy in Damascus, the majority of the population lived in abject poverty. People struggled to afford food and basic necessities. The situation in Syria in 2024 was worse than it had been since World War I. The poverty rate was over 90%, and public sector salaries were extremely low.

The HTS Offensive and the Collapse of the Regime

The HTS-led coalition launched an offensive on November 27th, 2024, conquering major cities in just 11 days. Assad's fall was attributed to declining support from Iran and Russia (due to their own conflicts) and the weakened state of the Syrian army (underpaid, demoralized, and poorly supplied). Iranian and Russian troops withdrew from Syria, and the Assad family was granted exile in Moscow.

Post-Assad Syria: Freedom and Challenges

The rebel coalition took control of the country, revealing the depths of the Assad regime. Thousands were freed from prisons. Syrians celebrated their liberation after 54 years of dictatorship. Journalists like Faizal could finally report freely.

The Legacy of Torture and Disappearances

Former detention centers revealed evidence of torture and human rights abuses. Nearly 700 journalists were killed by Syria's rulers between 2011 and 2024. Basam, a journalist, returned to his destroyed home district of Gouta. He is now collecting evidence of the regime's crimes. More than 30,000 people have died in Sedaya prison since the beginning of the revolution. Over 100,000 people are estimated to have disappeared in Syrian prisons between 2011 and 2024.

Ongoing Conflicts and Foreign Interference

Even after the HTS victory, the group does not control the entire country. Israel has expanded its occupation of the Golden Heights, and Turkey is bombing Kurdish-controlled areas. Syria's neighboring states have used the power vacuum to advance their own security interests.

The New Syrian Government and its Challenges

Syria's new president, Ahmed Al- Shah (formerly Abu Muhammad al Jalani), is trying to convey confidence. He has promised an inclusive transitional government and free and fair elections. However, he faces the challenge of broadening his base and including diverse voices in the government.

Hopes and Uncertainties for the Future

Freedom of speech has returned to Syria. People are expressing themselves through art and protest. However, there are concerns about religious censorship. The future of Syria is in the hands of the Syrians, but economic challenges, internal divisions, and outside interference continue to threaten the country's stability. The legacy of the Assad clan will not be forgotten overnight.

Conclusion

The video paints a grim picture of Syria under Bashar al-Assad's rule, highlighting the regime's brutality, corruption, and economic mismanagement. While the overthrow of Assad offers a glimmer of hope, the country faces significant challenges in rebuilding and establishing a stable and inclusive government. The roles of external actors and the legacy of human rights abuses will continue to shape Syria's future.