Syria seeks alliances with Turkey, Gulf states, West, and envisions a 'new partnership' with Russia

Key Concepts

• Historic Visit: The first visit of a Syrian leader to the White House in nearly 80 years.
• Ahmed Al-Shar: Syrian counterpart, formerly a jihadi, now leading Syria.
• Donald Trump: US President hosting Al-Shar.
• International Legitimacy: Syria's re-establishment of its presence on the world stage.
• Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT): Al-Shar's former status, now revoked by the US.
• Global Jihadist Organizations: Groups like al-Qaeda and Islamic State.
• Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): Controls parts of Syria, in negotiations with the new Syrian government.
• Global Anti-ISIS Coalition: An international coalition to fight ISIS.
• Golan Heights: Territory adjacent to the Golan Heights seized by Israel.
• Caesar Act: US sanctions on Syria.
• Reconstruction: Syria's need for rebuilding after years of civil war.

Historic Visit of Syrian Counterpart to the White House

This section details the unprecedented visit of Syrian counterpart, Ahmed Al-Shar, to the White House to meet with US President Donald Trump. This event is described as "historic" and "extraordinary" as it marks the first time a Syrian leader has visited the White House in nearly 80 years. The significance of this meeting is amplified by Al-Shar's past, including a $10 million bounty placed on his head by the US government and his previous association with jihadi groups. The visit is framed as a crucial step in Al-Shar's efforts to re-establish Syria's international standing since taking power nearly a year ago.

Significance of the Meeting

Jerome Drevon, a senior analyst on jihad and modern conflict at the International Crisis Group, emphasizes the extreme significance of this visit. He highlights that Al-Shar was still considered a terrorist by the UN Security Council as recently as the previous week and that the US had a bounty on his head until a year ago. Drevon states, "It marks a real renewal for Syria. This is the first time in decades that Syrian president visits the US, visits the head of uh of Para in Washington. And so, for for Syria, it's a really good sign that Syria is back in terms of international legitimacy."

US Revocation of Al-Shar's Terrorist Status

The transcript discusses the US's recent formal revocation of Al-Shar's status as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT). The rationale behind this decision is explored, with some questioning whether sufficient guarantees on fighting terrorism were received from Damascus.

Justification for Revocation

Drevon argues that the new Syrian government has demonstrated a clear commitment to international security since taking power and for the past five years. He notes that since 2019-2020, the government has rejected global jihadist organizations and clamped down on groups like al-Qaeda and Islamic State. He further states that even before taking power in Damascus, the group showed commitment to fighting radicals in its controlled territory and has continued to do so, with operations against Islamic State cells and information sharing with Western countries. Drevon clarifies that criticisms are generally not about security or terrorism but rather about the nature of governance and inclusivity.

National Unity and Relations with the Kurds

A key promise of Al-Shar is to bring national unity to a divided Syria. The US has also been involved in efforts to achieve this, particularly concerning the relations between Damascus and the Kurdish population in the northeast.

US Role in Negotiations

The US has been involved in negotiating between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which controls parts of the country, and the new Syrian government. Drevon describes these discussions as "extremely difficult" because neither side is fully prepared to make significant concessions. He explains that Al-Shar's visit to Washington provides him with increased leverage internally, as he is now recognized as an international figure with legitimacy. This also means the SDF is no longer the sole entity capable of collaborating with the international community on terrorism, as the new Syrian government can also fulfill this role. This shift in perception domestically impacts the outcome of negotiations between the SDF and the government.

Syria's Formal Entry into the Global Anti-ISIS Coalition

A significant talking point of the visit is Al-Shar's expected formal signing up to the global anti-ISIS coalition.

The Coalition and Syria's Role

The coalition was established after the Islamic State (ISIS) gained control of large parts of Syria and Iraq in 2014-2015 and comprises over 80 countries. Drevon explains that Syria's participation is important for demonstrating its role in stabilizing international security. He believes the Syrian government is well-positioned to fight ISIS cells due to its past actions and knowledge of these networks. Collaboration with the Syrian government is seen as a significant gain for the international community in dismantling remaining ISIS elements and preventing future attacks.

Regional Stability and US Objectives in Syria

The transcript highlights Syria's increased importance for the US in the Middle East, especially in the context of regional stabilization and avoiding further conflicts.

Israel-Syria Relations and Security Concerns

Drevon points out that conflicts have continued in Syria, with Israel bombing Syrian military bases since the government took over Damascus. Israel has also seized territory next to the Golan Heights, contributing to an unstable situation. A key objective of the Syrian government's visit to Washington is to work on this issue, aiming to reach a new agreement with Israel through US mediation. This agreement would seek to calm the situation, create security understanding, and prevent further Israeli escalation that could lead to a deterioration of regional security.

Russia's Perspective on the US-Syria Meeting

The visit follows Al-Shar's recent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The transcript explores how Moscow is likely viewing the meeting between Al-Shar and President Trump.

Russia's Strategic Approach

Drevon suggests that Russia is aware of the Syrian authorities' efforts to engage with Western and Gulf countries allied with the West. He states that Russia is not trying to prevent these outreach efforts but rather aims to be a new partner for Syrian authorities, enabling them to diversify their alliances with Turkey, Gulf countries, and the West. Russia's interest lies in being part of the new system of alliances being created by Damascus. While Russia will observe the outcomes, Drevon does not believe they are particularly worried, as this development was somewhat unexpected.

Sanctions and Syria's Reconstruction

A primary goal for Al-Shar is the rebuilding of Syria after years of civil war, which includes pushing for the lifting of US sanctions.

Impact of Sanctions on Recovery

Drevon emphasizes the "massive impact" of sanctions on Syria's reconstruction. He explains that the listing of HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) and Al-Shar as individuals previously posed significant obstacles to reconstruction. Western private sectors are hesitant to invest due to concerns about negative consequences and potential accusations of supporting terrorism. This has limited investments to short-term projects, hindering the structural infrastructure construction the country desperately needs.

Efforts to Lift Sanctions

Drevon notes that President Trump had previously agreed with the idea of lifting sanctions during a meeting with Al-Shar. However, he acknowledges that lifting sanctions involves complex bureaucratic processes. Syria remains under US sanctions, and a key objective of the visit is to convince members of Congress to vote in favor of repealing the Caesar Act and to work towards lifting all sanctions. While progress has been made, further efforts are required.