Syria’s al-Sharaa's US visit: Kurdish integration set to top the agenda

Key Concepts:

• Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
• Assad Government Collapse
• Operation Dawn of Freedom
• Transitional Government
• Kurdish Integration
• ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant)
• PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party)
• Turkish Offensive
• Israeli Strikes
• Regional Fragmentation
• Sovereignty Restoration

Northeastern Syria: Shifting Power Dynamics and the Future of the SDF

For over a decade, northeastern Syria has been under the administration of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a significant military and political entity supported by the United States. At its peak, the SDF controlled approximately one-third of Syria, encompassing most of Haka, a substantial portion of Raqqa, and areas within Deir ez-Zor and Aleppo governorates.

Impact of the Assad Government's Collapse and Turkish Offensive

The geopolitical landscape in Syria shifted dramatically in December 2024 with the collapse of the Assad government, leading to a realignment of local power balances. The SDF experienced a significant territorial loss when Turkish-backed forces launched a coordinated offensive, dubbed "Operation Dawn of Freedom," in Deir ez-Zor. While the SDF briefly re-entered Deir ez-Zor following the withdrawal of Assad's forces, they departed days later amidst local protests. Despite these setbacks, the SDF continues to administer the core of the northeast, a region vital for Syria's economy, holding the majority of its oil and gas reserves and a significant share of its wheat production.

The SDF-Transitional Government Agreement and its Challenges

In March of the current year, the SDF and Syria's transitional government, with backing from the United States, reached an agreement aimed at the eventual integration of the SDF into a new national army. However, the implementation of this agreement is proving to be slow and precarious. The SDF's primary objective is to retain a degree of self-governance, maintain its own command structure, and secure cultural rights for the Kurdish population. Conversely, the transitional government in Damascus insists on the reunification of all Syrian territory under a singular chain of command.

External Pressures and Security Concerns

Although the Syrian civil war has concluded, regional tensions remain high. The United States maintains a presence of several hundred troops in the northeast, with the stated goals of preventing the resurgence of ISIL and influencing the post-Assad political order. However, the most significant external pressure emanates from Turkey. Ankara views the SDF, and particularly its primary component, the YPG (People's Protection Units), as an extension of the PKK, which it designates as a terrorist organization. Turkey has consistently warned that any political resolution in Syria must not legitimize what it perceives as a hostile armed force situated on its southern border, with President Erdoğan stating, "We will clear our border from terrorists. We can't allow a terror corridor along our border."

Concurrently, Israel continues to conduct strikes against targets and expand its military presence within Syria, citing the need to protect its borders and Syrian minorities.

President Ahmed al-Shara's Diplomatic Mission

For President Ahmed al-Shara, the current task involves a delicate balancing act: restoring state authority without reigniting past conflicts. His anticipated visit to Washington is expected to center on securing security guarantees, establishing frameworks for reconstruction, and finalizing the terms of Kurdish integration. The failure of this integration process carries the risk of Syria descending back into fragmentation.

Conclusion: A Test of Leadership and Negotiation

President al-Shara's trip to Washington represents a critical test for Syria's new leadership, assessing their ability to secure international assurances while navigating the demands of powerful neighboring states and mitigating the internal fear of fragmentation. Many observers believe that the path to restoring Syrian sovereignty lies not only in domestic negotiations but also through dialogue with Ankara, Washington, Tel Aviv, and other international actors.